the reality of salaries between the holiday and the war.Oil production has stopped, and the public is asking, "Where is the liquidity?
The delay in paying employee salaries in recent days has sparked widespread concern among the Iraqi public, especially as the payment coincided with a long Eid holiday followed by heavy rains that disrupted work in several institutions. This has led to various interpretations, some pointing to a potential liquidity crisis amidst the current regional pressures.
The video for this My FX Buddies bog post is below here:
This comes after the suspension of official work for two consecutive days, Wednesday and Thursday, as part of the government's celebrations of the national team's qualification for the World Cup finals. While this move was described as having a popular character and a message of moral support to the public, it also ignited a broad debate among political and economic circles regarding the limits of using official holidays as a tool for responding to events, and whether it aligns with the country's work and production needs. This comes after a series of government-announced holidays in recent days, following the Eid al-Fitr holiday, due to severe weather and heavy rainfall. This has increased the number of official holidays in a short period, prompting observers to warn of the repercussions of accumulating holidays on institutional performance and public services. The official weekend (Friday and Saturday) will exacerbate the suffering of employees already facing long waits for their salaries.
The salary delays come at a highly sensitive time, coinciding with the escalation of the regional conflict, which has directly impacted the Iraqi economy. This is particularly true given the near-complete halt in oil exports due to disruptions in supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Many are linking the salary delays to the decline in state revenues, as oil is the primary source of funding for the national budget.
In a country heavily reliant on oil revenues to cover operating expenses, especially salaries, any disruption to exports immediately affects public sentiment and heightens anxiety among citizens, especially in the absence of immediate clarifications to determine the nature of the situation and distinguish between administrative shortcomings and a potential financial crisis.
However, economic expert Abdulrahman al-Sheikhli asserts that “there is absolutely no problem with this month’s salaries. The delay was due to administrative negligence, and the employees responsible should be held accountable. They failed to accurately anticipate the consequences of the long Eid holiday, which was followed by a wave of rain that disrupted work. This, in turn, delayed the preparation of payrolls on schedule, leading to speculation that the government is suffering from a liquidity shortage to fund this month’s salaries.”
Al-Sheikhli added to Iraq Observer that “what happened is not related to a financial deficit or a genuine lack of funds, but rather to poor administrative judgment and a backlog of procedures that should have been completed before the holiday to avoid any disruption affecting a large segment of employees and retirees.”
Nevertheless, the timing of the delay, coinciding with the halt in oil exports, gave the issue broader dimensions than a mere technical glitch. It quickly transformed into a potential indicator of a financial crisis in the eyes of many citizens, given the direct link between salaries and oil revenues. This further amplified public concern and anxiety.
Experts emphasize that the sensitivity of the salary issue in Iraq stems not only from its financial magnitude but also from its direct link to social stability. A large segment of families depend almost entirely on this income, meaning that any delay, even a minor one, quickly impacts markets and living expenses.
In recent hours, employees have been increasingly questioning the reasons for the delay on social media, amid fears that this could be a prelude to repeated delays if oil exports remain disrupted, despite economic assurances that the current situation does not indicate a genuine liquidity crisis.
The Ministry of Finance has directed that work continue in order to disburse salaries.
The Ministry of Finance has directed that work continue in order to disburse salaries.
Finance Minister Taif Sami instructed the Accounting and Banking Department to remain open during the holiday to complete the payment of March salaries for government employees. Sami stated that the ministry had directed the Accounting and Banking Department to continue operating to finalize the payment of March salaries for employees in the remaining spending units.
Caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had previously ordered a holiday for Wednesday and Thursday to celebrate the national team's qualification for the World Cup. Meanwhile, Al-Rasheed Bank decided to remain open to disburse employee salaries. A statement from the bank indicated that, based on the Ministry of Finance's directives, it had instructed its branches that handle employee payroll accounts to maintain regular working hours to ensure the smooth delivery of services to citizens.
The bank emphasized its commitment to facilitating salary payments and providing the best banking services, in accordance with the directives of relevant authorities and to meet the needs of beneficiaries. In a separate development, the Real Estate Bank announced the suspension of monthly loan repayments for borrowers for the month of April.
The bank stated in a press release that, "Based on directives from the Prime Minister, and in observance of Ramadan, the bank's board of directors has decided to suspend monthly loan repayments for one month only, this April." The statement added that "this decision comes within the framework of government directives aimed at easing the burden on citizens and taking into account their living conditions." The statement concluded by saying that "monthly repayments will resume starting the following month according to the established schedules."
The World Bank expresses "deep concern" over the economic consequences of the war.
World Bank Managing Director Pascal Donohoe expressed "deep concern" about the impact of the war in the Middle East on the global economy, at a time when a number of countries were already in a difficult situation due to a series of global crises.
"We are very concerned about the consequences this will have in terms of inflation, jobs and food security, and that is why we are preparing to provide assistance" to countries that request it, Donohue told AFP.
The Washington-based organization pays particular attention to the situation in African and Asian countries, which are especially vulnerable to rising energy prices and supply shocks.
He added, "We are consulting with several governments and countries to understand their needs, and I expect we will have more information in the coming weeks."
The World Bank, in particular, will have to use its spring meetings, to be held in Washington from April 12 to 17, "to assess the scale of the potential response."
Donohue said that currently "we are seeking to identify the available funds and interventions that may be necessary to help countries deal with the short-term effects of the war in Iran."
As part of these efforts, the World Bank on Wednesday issued a joint statement with the International Monetary Fund and the International Energy Agency announcing the creation of a "coordination group to ensure the most effective response" by these institutions to the ongoing crisis.
It is an initiative that can be expanded to include other institutions with the aim of providing expertise in different fields.
Will Iraq's cash reserves save it from the specter of deficit?
Will the cash reserves save Iraq from the specter of deficit, or will the continuation of the war create an unbearable financial gap? This question imposes itself with the decline in oil revenues by up to 80%, from $6-7 billion per month to only $1 billion or $2 billion.
Experts and specialists in Iraqi economic affairs have identified, with figures, the repercussions of the ongoing war in the region on the Iraqi economy. While they indicated that Iraq is losing about $10 million daily as a result of the suspension of air traffic, in addition to about $5 billion monthly due to the decline in oil exports, they expressed their confidence in the government’s ability to pay necessary expenses, including salaries, for 6 months due to the large cash reserve.
complex crisis
Crisis management expert, Engineer Ali Jabbar, explained that “in light of the military escalation in the region, the Iraqi economy is facing a complex shock that goes beyond being a traditional oil crisis, to become a cash flow crisis that affects the core of the state’s public finances,” indicating that “Iraq depends on oil as a main source of revenues, at a rate of approximately 85 percent to 90 percent, which means that any disruption in exports directly affects the government’s ability to finance its basic obligations.”
Jabbar added, “Estimates indicate that Iraq’s oil exports have declined sharply in recent weeks, which has led to a decrease in daily revenues from about $240 million before the crisis to levels that may not exceed $50 million currently,” noting that “this means that Iraq is effectively losing about $180 to $200 million daily, or approximately $5 to $6 billion monthly.”
Revenue decline
He pointed out that “monthly oil revenues before the crisis were around 6 to 7 billion dollars, while currently they are estimated at only between 1 billion and 2 billion dollars,” stressing that this is “a significant decline that puts public finances under severe pressure.”
Regarding the suspension of air traffic, Jabbar said: “Although its direct impact is smaller compared to oil, it has broader economic repercussions,” explaining that “direct losses from this sector are estimated at about 5 to 10 million dollars a day, but they are multiplied indirectly through the disruption of business activity, its impact on religious tourism, and the increase in transportation and logistics costs. Therefore, its real impact is evident in the slowdown of general economic activity, and not just in direct revenues.”
government spending
Regarding the government's ability to continue spending , he stated that "Iraq still has a temporary safety margin thanks to its foreign reserves, estimated at around $95 to $100 billion," noting that "these reserves give the government the ability to cover salaries and basic expenses for a period ranging from three to six months."
He added that “the main problem is that these reserves are primarily intended to support monetary stability, not to compensate for the continuous loss of oil revenues,” stressing that “as the crisis continues, the government will find itself facing a difficult equation between maintaining exchange rate stability and financing current spending.”
He continued, “So far, the government’s measures seem closer to short-term remedies, such as trying to find alternative export outlets or adapting to the new reality, but they do not rise to the level of an integrated economic plan to manage the crisis.” He explained that “what is required at this stage is to move from shock management to adaptation management, by controlling public spending, rearranging priorities towards protecting salaries and basic services, while reducing unnecessary expenditures, and working at the same time to maximize any possible alternative revenues, even if they come at higher costs.”
cash reserves
He concluded by saying that “Iraq is not only facing a decline in revenues, but is going through a real test of the resilience of its economy,” noting that “reserves provide valuable time, but they are not a permanent solution, and if a considerable portion of oil exports is not restored or decisive financial measures are not taken within a short period, the situation may move from a stage of financial pressure to a stage of financial crisis that directly affects economic and social stability.”
On a related note, economist Jalil Al-Lami warned that the Iraqi economy is facing compounded pressures affecting revenue sources and the state's ability to finance its obligations, especially with the restrictions on air navigation and the increased risks of transport and insurance on oil exports, which directly impacts public finances and economic stability.
Air traffic suspended
Al-Lami added that “although the losses from the suspension of air traffic remain relatively limited, estimated at around $3 million per day from airport fees and services, the deeper impact is related to the oil sector, as Iraq’s export rate was about 3.3 million barrels per day at an average price of nearly $75 per barrel, which means that daily revenues reach about $247 million. He pointed out that “any decline of 10 percent leads to a loss of nearly $25 million per day or about $750 million per month, while losses may reach more than $1.5 billion per month if the decline rises to around 20-25 percent, taking into account that the current tensions may raise shipping and insurance costs by up to 30 percent, which reduces net actual revenues.”
Regarding the level of public revenues, he said: “Iraq used to generate between $8 and $9.5 billion monthly, more than 85 percent of which came from oil. However, these revenues are likely to decrease to around $6 to $7 billion in light of the current challenges, especially if export restrictions continue or global prices fluctuate at a time when the economy is experiencing a slowdown in non-oil sectors such as transportation, tourism and trade.”
Regarding securing government spending, the economist stated that “the biggest challenge is covering monthly expenses ranging between 10 trillion Iraqi dinars, which include the salaries of more than 4 million employees and retirees, in addition to social safety nets and operational support,” noting that “this puts the government in front of a delicate equation between declining revenues and fixed obligations, but Iraq currently has a cash reserve exceeding $107 billion at the Central Bank, which provides financial cover that allows for the continuation of funding salaries and basic expenses in the short term.”
domestic borrowing
He believed that “the continuation of the crisis for a period exceeding 3 to 6 months without stability in oil exports will lead to real pressure on liquidity and may push the government to resort to several tools, most notably expanding domestic borrowing through government banks, or gradually withdrawing from the cash reserve, or rearranging spending priorities by postponing investment projects and reducing unnecessary expenditures, with the possibility of increasing reliance on non-oil revenues such as taxes and fees, which still constitute less than 15 percent of total revenues.”
He pointed out that “the Iraqi economy is able to absorb the crisis in stages thanks to oil revenues and cash reserves,” adding that “the continuation of tensions threatens to create an increasing financial gap, and the decisive factor remains the stability and continuity of oil exports, as every 10 percent decrease in exports means a loss of nearly $1 billion per month, which makes securing government spending directly dependent on the stability of this vital sector.”
Want to Support My FX Buddies?
.png)
Support My FX Buddies Big or Small I appreciate it all
BuyMeACoffee CashApp:$tishwash
https://paypal.me/tishwash
.jpeg)
Contact between Brak and Barzani
Trump condemns attacks on Kurdistan and affirms Washington's support for protecting Iraq's security.
On Wednesday evening (April 1, 2026), the President of the Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani, received a phone call from US envoy Tom Barrack, who conveyed a message of solidarity from US President Donald Trump following the recent attacks targeting the region. Trump strongly condemned the drone attack that targeted President Barzani's house in Duhok, stressing Washington's full support for protecting the security and stability of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. Barzani expressed his appreciation for the US positions and assistance.
The Kurdistan Region Presidency stated in a statement received by 964 Network that “His Excellency Mr. Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region, received this evening (Wednesday, April 1, 2026), a telephone call from Mr. Tom Barrack, Special Envoy of US President Donald Trump to Syria and US Ambassador to Turkey.”
The statement continued, “Mr. Barak conveyed a message from President Donald Trump, in which he strongly condemned the attacks targeting the Kurdistan Region, and the drone attack that targeted the home of President Nechirvan Barzani in Duhok. President Trump expressed his solidarity with His Excellency, and his condolences to the families of the martyrs, wishing a speedy recovery to the wounded.”
He added that “in the phone call, Mr. Barack affirmed President Trump’s and the United States’ full support for protecting the security and stability of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. For his part, President Nechirvan Barzani thanked him for the call, expressing his appreciation for America’s positions and assistance to Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.”
He pointed out that “the repercussions of the war formed another axis of communication in the region.”
Parliamentary Finance Committee reassures: Iraq has sufficient cash reserves to cover salaries for six months.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry reveals the reasons behind the delay in the public appearance of Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a press statement: "Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei is in perfect health, and the delay in his public appearance is due to the circumstances of the war."
She added that "no one in the world can trust American diplomacy anymore," explaining that "America uses diplomacy and negotiations to pave the way for imposing its demands or for using force."
She affirmed: "Tehran will defend itself to prevent a repeat of a war that America was dragged into at the instigation of the Israeli entity."
The Revolutionary Guard shot down a cruise missile in Kashan, central Iran.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the downing of a cruise missile in Kashan, central Iran.
AFP report
Teenagers harass women in Tehran; Revolutionary Guard lowers conscription age and deploys night patrols
A report by Agence France-Presse stated that the Revolutionary Guard decided to lower the recruitment age to allow teenagers under the age of 15 to join security duties in Tehran and major cities. It quoted women who were subjected to searches at checkpoints and security posts that appear at night and search the phones of passersby, in a move that reflects the authorities’ need for more volunteers in light of escalating threats since the outbreak of war at the end of last month.
nder the strict security measures imposed by the Iranian authorities with the outbreak of the war, groups of armed boys began to spread out in the streets of Tehran to ensure security, causing fear among the residents.
From the first weeks of the war that broke out following US-Israeli strikes on February 28, the streets of the capital were filled with police or army checkpoints.
While some of them were bombed or even no longer existed, boys and children supported the patrols.
Iranian authorities have confirmed that they are using boys as young as twelve years old to bolster the ranks of the Basij forces, which are specifically tasked with maintaining security.
A 28-year-old woman, who asked not to be identified for security reasons, said that one night she drove through two checkpoints in northern Tehran, where boys as young as 13 or 14 were carrying weapons.
She indicated that one of them opened the car door and sat next to her. In a message she sent to an AFP correspondent outside Iran, she added, "He asked for my mobile phone and checked every detail, even the photos. He was extremely intrusive."
Lowering the minimum age
If circumvention of the internet blackout imposed in Iran is discovered during mobile phone inspections, it could result in imprisonment, with those transmitting information abroad being charged with espionage.
An Iranian resident of Tehran told AFP last week that he passed through a military checkpoint and found “after 100 meters several civilian vehicles with boys who were stopping cars.”
He added, “They would open doors without permission and search cars and mobile phones.”
With the mobilization campaigns targeting minors that the authorities have confirmed are being carried out, Iranians are recalling painful memories from the 1980s when thousands of children and teenagers fought in the Iran-Iraq War.
Rahim Nizali, an official in the Revolutionary Guard, revealed that the Basij units had received a huge influx of requests.
“Given the age of the applicants, we decided to lower the minimum age to twelve because children aged twelve and thirteen also want to contribute,” he said in remarks to state television last week.
Opinions differ as to whether these measures indicate difficulties facing a system in need of additional reinforcements, or a more radical shift by the authorities.
However, analysts believe that the tightening of security measures is primarily aimed at preventing any popular uprising, which has been repeatedly called for by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In addition to the roadblocks, supporters of the regime, who are sometimes very young, organize night patrols.
A Tehran resident said, “Sometimes they ride in cars equipped with loudspeakers, raise flags, and roam the streets, chanting slogans amidst a great commotion.”
He added, “They go to a different neighborhood every night and post recordings of their work.”
A delegation from the Kurdistan Democratic Party arrives in Baghdad to discuss three issues with political parties.
A high-level delegation from the Kurdistan Democratic Party arrived in the capital, Baghdad, on Tuesday afternoon, March 31, 2026.
According to information obtained by Kurdistan 24, the delegation includes: Fadhil Mirani, head of the working body of the party’s political bureau; Fawzi Hariri, head of the Kurdistan Region Presidency’s office; and Nawzad Hadi and Omid Sabah, members of the party’s central committee.
The party delegation is scheduled to discuss the following topics with Iraqi political parties:
Missile and drone attacks targeting the Kurdistan Region.
The formation of the new Iraqi government.
Election of a new president for Iraq.
The Kurdistan Region has been subjected to several missile and drone attacks in the past period, which has caused great concern among the Kurdish political leadership.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) consistently seeks, through dialogue, to urge the federal government to uphold its responsibilities in protecting the sovereignty of Iraqi territory and the Kurdistan Region. This delegation's visit is part of ongoing efforts to pressure decision-makers in Iraq to prevent the recurrence of such attacks and maintain security and stability in the region.
A Trump advisor: No one knows what he's thinking, but don't interfere in Iran.
Since the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28, US President Donald Trump has made numerous statements that have been described as contradictory, whether regarding the possibility of carrying out a "ground invasion" and military escalation, or negotiating and ending the war soon.
One of his advisors said he was adopting this policy in order to keep his options open.
He also asserted that the US president "does not want to send troops into Iran." He added, "When he doesn't want to do something, he does his best not to... and of course, you can't predict his next move."
A senior adviser also noted that "no one really knows what he's thinking in the end," according to Axios.
Another official in the US administration saw it as, "This is not a three-dimensional chess game, but a 12-dimensional chess game... No one knows what he is thinking... This is a deliberate approach."
Some US officials, however, believed that if the April 6 deadline given by Trump to Iran to reach an agreement approached without consensus, he would deliver the "final blow" by intensively bombing Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities, and then withdraw.
He is expected to provide more details on Wednesday evening, US time, and around dawn in Riyadh.
It is worth noting that Trump and several of his officials have recently been asserting that most of the objectives have been achieved. The US president affirmed that the American strikes have decimated the Iranian navy, as well as its air and missile capabilities.
Trump tasks Vance with contacting Iran
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump has tasked Vice President J.D. Vance with engaging with Iran.
Bloomberg quoted a source as saying, "Vance spoke with Pakistani intermediaries on Tuesday about the war with Iran." The report
added, "Trump instructed Vance to contact Iran to inform them of Washington's openness to a ceasefire in exchange for specific demands," noting that "Vance said pressure on Iranian infrastructure would be intensified until the Iranians reach an agreement."
Three US officials, according to Axios, revealed discussions between US and Iranian officials regarding a potential deal involving a ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
This comes as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its second month, with continued exchanges of missile and drone strikes.
No comments:
Post a Comment