Wednesday, July 14, 2021

WOTS TUE JUL 13 21 The project to delete zeros in Iraq is still technically prepared by the Central Bank of Iraq

 WOTS TUE JUL 13 21 The project to delete zeros in Iraq is still technically prepared by the Central Bank of Iraq

On today's My FX Buddies Podcast I only discussed one article and it is below.  

Confidence in the Iraqi dinar is eroding… and the prospect of removing zeros

link

Iraq is witnessing a severe financial crisis that began with the outbreak of the Corona virus last year and the decline in global demand for oil, which represents nearly 91% of Iraq’s financial imports.

With the continuation of the financial crisis and the failure to pay the salaries of employees last year, the government resorted to what was called the Iraqi government reform paper (the white paper), which included the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, and the decision entered into force at the beginning of this year.

With the rise in oil prices globally, the Iraqi government has been thinking about long-term financial strategies that may protect the country from falling into a financial crisis that may be more influential. One of these strategies was put forward by the economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, and is represented in deleting 3 zeros from the Iraqi currency, Without specifying a date for the implementation of this step.

In every economic equation, the ratio of profit and loss is calculated, which is indicated by the economist Hammam Al-Shamma that this ratio will not be equally present in the equation, warning of psychological disturbances in the Iraqi market in the event of deleting zeros.

In contrast to the losing party, Al-Shammaa believes that the government may derive limited benefits from deleting zeros, which is that the government and the central bank will face fewer problems in the accounting system and final accounts with limited zeros and small accounting numbers.

On Sunday, June 20, 2021, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, set two conditions for deleting 3 zeros from the currency, while stressing that the option to delete is proposed as part of the strategies for reforming the currency and cash payments system in Iraq.

Saleh told the Obelisk, “The Central Bank of Iraq developed a project to delete three zeros from the Iraqi currency in order to reform the cash payments system, which has become burdened with the insomnia of the economic blockade imposed in the nineties of the last century, and put it into research and study long ago, after looking at about 54 An international experience from the end of the Second World War until the second decade of the twenty-first century, which took place in various countries of the world, in which the monetary payment systems were reformed and made to work more efficiently, the last of which was the Islamic Republic of Iran and before that, Turkey.

He added that “the phenomenon of increasing zeros in the monetary unit or adding zeros to a single monetary unit usually comes due to the exposure of economies to unruly waves of inflation or continuous sharp rises for years in the price level due to wars, sieges and conflicts, which lead to financing the deficit of government budgets through cash issuance.” .

And because the price means the value of goods and services expressed in cash, the continuous rise in prices without stopping leads to the erosion of the value of the monetary unit, which requires the issuance of larger monetary categories due to the lack of value of the smaller monetary groups and the disappearance of their ability to cover transactions and exchanges of high monetary value in the market.

He continued, “Accordingly, the monetary value of things or tangible assets and others inflates, and when inflation ends, according to which prices have increased to three decimal places, or more or less, according to the nature of each economy, countries resort to reducing the artificial reproduction in numbers, especially in the numbers of accounts books, budgets and various numbers of tools Accountability, after two conditions are met.

He continued, “The first condition is price stability and global economic growth, and the second is appropriate stability in political life, so the importance of deleting zeros from the currency and slimming currency units as a necessary condition for reducing accounting numbers and facilitating arithmetic handling and the cost of managing new large numbers and the absence of small numbers and fractions, as it is noted that slimming currencies Cash comes because of its role in the sustainability of calculating huge numbers of financial values ​​that are not absorbed by ordinary computers due to the large number of decimal places and the emergence of many accounting errors, especially dealing in trillions, which means that one number in front of it has 12 decimal places.

Saleh believed that “the hyperinflation that hit the Iraqi economy in the nineties of the last century added three numbers to the Iraqi monetary unit (that is, one dinar became equal to a thousand dinars, and ten dinars became ten thousand dinars, and so on for the rest of the categories), while the small categories disappeared from circulation completely, but rather Every 250 fils became equal to 250 dinars, and it was considered the smallest monetary unit in circulation today, which raised the cost of micro-transactions that mostly affect the poor.

He added, “In this way, monetary systems aspire to remove the burden of historical inflation from the folds of the monetary unit by resorting to deleting three zeros from the old currency in order to equalize the new currency with lower numbers but with the same value. Let’s say, for example, that one new dinar is equal to 1000 old dinars without change in value or rights. The accounting books, statistics, numbers and computer systems are also modified with the value of the new currency within an easy and easy reform strategy, and countries consider that slimming the currency system facilitates the circulation of mathematical numbers and helps to issue smaller cash denominations for very small transactions whose monetary values ​​have been destroyed by historical inflation in our country such as the dirham and others.

He concluded by saying, “The project to delete zeros in Iraq is still technically prepared by the Central Bank of Iraq, which is the official sectoral authority and the monetary authority concerned with this matter and in cooperation with all three state agencies and authorities, but the project is postponed at the present time until the appropriate conditions are achieved and remains part of the currency system reform strategies. and cash payments in Iraq.


Below here is the daily WOTS report the "Word on the Street" for July 13th, 2021

The dollar exchange rates in the local markets for Tuesday, (July 13, 2021), according to specialists' monitoring.   

 

Baghdad - the stock exchange  

147,850  

....  

The price is in most Baghdad exchanges  

Buy  

147,250  

Sale  

148,250  

——————————————————  

Basra - Bursa  

148,000  

——————————-  

Mosul - Bursa  

148,100  

———————————  

Erbil - Bursa  

147,950  

———————————  

Sulaymaniyah - Bursa  

148,000 






The Markets:
The Asian markets closed up NIK up by .52% HSI up by 1.63% SHANG up by .53%
The UK markets are currently trading in the red mostly no numbers
Our futures are currently trading mixed  DOW at 34848 down by .06% SNP at 43775 up  by 01% NDX at 14918 up  by .32%

Precious Metals:
Gold is green at 1809 Silver is green  at 26.05 Copper N/A Platinum is red at 1117
Brent 75 WTI  74   Bitcoin: 33,235 10 yr yield: 1.36

Favorite Currencies Forex Quotes

SymbolBidAskHighLowOpenChangeTime
 USD/IQD  1458.0000  1463.0000 1456.7000 1456.7000 1456.7000  -0.2000 00:00
 USD/VND  23010.0000  23015.0000 23000.2000 22987.0500 22987.0500  15.6900 04:50
 USD/CNY  6.4659  6.4679 6.4747 6.4621 6.4747  -0.0086 05:19
 USD/KWD  0.3002  0.3012 0.3005 0.3004 0.3005  -0.0002 05:17
 GBP/USD  1.3851  1.3852 1.3905 1.3849 1.3874  -0.0022 05:24
 USD/IRR  42000.0000  42210.0000 42097.5000 42097.5000 42097.5000  0.0000 00:00
 USD/IDR  14470.0000  14470.0000 14527.0000 14437.0000 14509.0000  -38.0000 05:21

Things in the News:
Iraqi Articles:

BAB signs MoU with Iraq banks league

link
The Bahrain Association of Banks (BAB) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Iraq Private Banks League (IPBL) which would pave the way for greater exchange of experiences and knowledge as well as enable cooperation among banks in the two markets. The agreement was signed by BAB chairman Adnan Ahmed Yousif and IPBL chairman Wadih Al Handal during a remote meeting .
you have to get a subscription to read the rest of the article.

 Moody Foundation: Weakness of Iraq's institutions and mismanagement will constrain the government in the face of shocks

link

The Moody American International Foundation for Economic Assessment stated that despite the high oil prices, there will remain challenges facing Iraq's stability represented by the country's absolute dependence on oil with weak institutions in addition to poor management, which will lead to weakness and restriction of the government's ability to face external and internal shocks by relying on the economy It is basically weak . 

The International Foundation stated that its assessment took into account Iraq's high rate of political risks and instability resulting from the internal political and social conflict, as well as regional geopolitical tensions, all of which will continue to impede the achievement of institutional and governmental reform, with slow economic growth and the absence of diversification of financial sources . 

On the other hand, Moody International Corporation said that implementing the government’s plans to nearly double the oil production capacity in the medium term will support economic growth and enhance Iraq’s financial and external position, but the extent to which this is achieved on the ground will be governed by future expectations of oil demand and price volatility as well as challenges Political instability and mismanagement that undermine investment in the oil and gas sector . 

The International Foundation indicated in its report that the weakness of the administration was also manifested in the government's inability to pass the budget throughout 2020, with the fact that Iraq is still classified according to the Transparency Index among the 20 most corrupt countries in the world. The spread of corruption is ultimately one of the biggest institutional challenges for Iraq, which directly affects the nature and effectiveness of the administration and the weakness of the trend towards reform and change . 

In the view of Moody's Institute for Economic Evaluation, Iraq's divisive political scene and the risks of political instability in it will continue to impede any progress in the field of economic and institutional reforms. In addition, high oil prices and significantly reduced government spending needs since the end of 2020 have reduced incentives to move forward with reforms . 

With regard to the aspirations and opportunities for stability in Iraq, most of the technical discussions that took place so far with the International Monetary Fund, which began in late 2020, refer to the opportunity to introduce a structural adjustment program supported by the Financial Support Facility provided by the International Monetary Fund. Such a program will serve as a reform approach, provide a degree of financial support and support Iraq's credit eligibility . 

The report of the International Economic Corporation indicated that the continuing challenges of political and administrative instability in Iraq will continue to undermine investment opportunities and the participation of international oil companies in the expansion and development of the oil and gas sectors, which is necessary to achieve higher production rates in the current oil fields . 

In its report, the American establishment states that with a degree of uncertainty about what the outcome of the upcoming elections could lead to, due to the electoral amendment approved by Parliament late last year, it does not expect that the composition of the next parliament will be radically different from the composition of the current parliament, which reduces the the chance of a change concrete material on the subject of reform . 

The aspects of the impact of environmental, social and administrative considerations for Iraq scored high negative points for the assessment of the American Moody Foundation . 

Where she mentioned that the country is exposed to very negative environmental risks resulting from carbon residues in the atmosphere left by burning fuel, due to the total economic and financial dependence on the hydrocarbon fuel sector. The mismanagement of the hydrocarbon sector file and the chronic absence of investment in the infrastructure of the oil and gas sector exacerbated this environmental pollution. Iraq is also among the countries most vulnerable to desertification and low rates of water flow due to the absence of good management of water resources and chronic neglect of infrastructure and water leads to a lack of dedicated to agriculture and the lack of water suitable for drinking water provides many demographic groupings . 

The institution said that the negative social risks are represented in the labor market in the country resulting from the high unemployment rates, especially among young people, with expectations of high population growth rates that will further exacerbate this problem. The social risks are further exacerbated by the absence of basic public services such as health care and housing, the weak security situation and the instability of sectarian and ethnic tensions . 

The institution stated that the record of the weak efficiency of Iraq's fiscal policy, the weakness of its executive and legislative bodies, its judicial institutions, and its weak control over corruption are the main factors that undermine the country's ability to address social and environmental problems and future shocks .


Financial flows are affected by fluctuations in oil prices

link

After the fluctuation of oil prices, it has become necessary to take quick and practical measures to achieve an actual plurality of financial revenues in order to avoid being affected by crises that cause a decline in crude oil prices, and to scientifically deal with the increase in oil prices, which in turn leads to an increase in financial flows.
The expert at the Center for Arab and International Studies, Dr. Ahmed Al-Rawi, explained that “to address the effects of fluctuating oil prices, it must achieve stability in the growth of the general budget, and here it requires writing off all unnecessary spending items and achieving an efficient allocation of financial resources, which leads to efficient economic performance and an increase in Its ability to provide the material ingredients to achieve economic development as well as activate and diversify non-oil revenue sources to meet the low price 
Oil in the preparation of the budget.
 
tax system
He pointed out that "these treatments are the basis for preparing budgets in non-oil countries, such as activating taxes and public fees, and it is through the government's real reforms in the tax system and its advancement to the level that achieves the required goals, foremost of which is the financing goal of the general budget, the other matter is activating the role of the productive and service sectors." Which includes the agricultural and industrial sectors, the service sector and the tourism sector to contribute with added values to the national economic activity.
 
Non-oil revenue
In turn, the Dean of the College of Business Economics, Dr. Nagham Hussein Nehme, stressed the imperative of focusing on non-oil revenues in the general budget, and that the best way to separate oil and non-oil revenues and verify the real deficit that the budget suffers from regardless of the size of oil revenues, and this is an important indicator for measuring direction and sustainability. Fiscal policy, given the uncertainty surrounding oil wealth. 
 
financial flows

She pointed out that {the fluctuations and fluctuations in international oil prices lead to fluctuations in financial flows. The dependence of government financial returns on oil revenues makes the financial system vulnerable and vulnerable to fluctuations in external variables, and thus weakening the economic decision of the financial authority. These considerations necessitate the financial management. Choosing a calm path for public spending so that it can face the fluctuations in oil revenues.”

CBI Update:  Just  a note:

They have been having auctions and the ISX has been trading regularly; the sites just don't update in time to put the information in this report, unless it is 
here.   

Click on the link above for the latest update.

The CBI for rate is 1460

The currency auction For July 13th, 2021 total sales amount $223,815,972


ISX Update:   

www.isx-iq.net/

Shares Traded: not updated for today
Value Traded: not updated for today 

7-12-2021   Intel Guru MarkZ   [via PDK]  [Will all the exchange rates be set or a float that will go up over time?]  As I understand it we are covered under a contract if we exchange at redemption centers…if we just go to a bank we will exchange at the rate it is floating  at... I believe our exchanges …we will exchange under a set rate.  So holding onto it would not make any sense for us. This is what my bankers have told me...if you are worried about a float wait and see…make a decision for yourselves…either way it will be a tremendous blessing.

7-12-2021   Intel Guru Frank26 
 The next step for the CBI is to add value by lifting the 3 zeros, releasing it from the American dollar and floating it internationally because they are Article VIII and being on par, not pegged, to the American dollar which only adds more to the value of the currency of Iraq.

7-12-2021   Intel Guru Holly   ... Things are moving everyone so keep the faith!  To those who complain about dates constantly changing: "This event is not being done for you (nor me); you (we) are simply going to benefit by it.” It is out of everyone’s control but those who are in charge. This is a transition not a transaction. Never, ever give up. When you sign your NDA be quiet.

7-12-2021   Intel Guru MarkZ   [via PDK]   ...the chatter is fantastic…my banking folks are very keyed up for late in the week-this week...for us...The news has been exceptionally positive over the weekend guys. I am still just as giddy as I was on Saturday...We all want it to go quicker than it is.  I am not concerned anymore because the process has started. Buckle up and watch it play out...I am expecting a big week with steady progress and hopefully a culmination for us all.   

7-12-2021   Newshound Guru Pimpy   Article:   "Zimbabwe Currency...its history in brief"  This article says these notes [Zim 1,000,000,000 notes] are no longer any good.  What I recommend you do is go to a currency exchange place and ask them if these notes are any good.  Now the thing about the dinar is they are good notes.  They are being used in country.  These [Zim 1,000,000,000 notes] are no longer being used in-country is what it looks like.  It's better to be safe than sorry.  I don't want people wasting more money on Zim notes. I don't have Zim notes...do a little more digging and find out about these notes.  You might have bought a bunch of zim notes that aren't worth anything.  Just be careful.

7-12-2021   Intel Guru Frank26   I don't know when.  I don't know the date...but based on every breath I take I am well aware that it is happening IMO...we are at that point that we are pressed against the wall...the power is there now.  They are about to give it to the citizens and you but you just have to hang in there and go through the process as painful as it may be because this is not at all painful compared to what's out there in the world...  


Catnip's Corner:
***********
ARTICLE 1 (from PM Kadhimi's website; posted only on Arabic side, not on English side)

Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi chairs an emergency meeting regarding the fire incident at Al-Hussein Hospital in Nasiriyah and takes a number of decisions

The Prime Minister, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Mr. Mustafa Al-Kazemi, held an emergency meeting that included a number of ministers, officials and security leaders; In order to find out the causes of the fire incident at Imam Al-Hussein Hospital (peace be upon him) in Dhi Qar Governorate, and to address its repercussions, the meeting came out with the following decisions:
 
1- Initiating a high-level government investigation to find out the causes of the accident.

2- A government team from a group of ministers and security leaders goes immediately to Dhi Qar Governorate to follow up on the procedures on the ground.

3- Withdrawing the hand and imprisoning the director of Dhi Qar health, the director of the hospital, and the director of civil defense in the governorate and subjecting them to the above investigation.

4- Directing the various ministries to send urgent medical and relief aid to Dhi Qar Governorate.

5- Considering the victims of the accident as martyrs, completing their transactions immediately, and sending the wounded who are in critical condition outside Iraq.

6- Announcing official mourning for the martyrs of the accident.

Media Office of the Prime Minister
13 - July - 2021

*************
ARTICLE 2 (from Government of Iraq twitter account)

Commander-in-Chief PM @MAKadhimi chairs an emergency meeting following the fire at Al-Hussein (peace be upon him) Hospital in Dhi Qar province. The meeting agreed to:
Immediately dispatch a senior government team of ministers and security commanders to Dhi Qar province.

Suspend and detain Dhi Qar Health Director, the hospital director and the local civil defence director, and refer them to be investigated.

Direct ministries to send urgent medical and relief aid to the Dhi Qar province.

Declare the victims of the accident martyrs, and arrange for those wounded who are in critical condition to be treated outside Iraq.

Declare an official mourning in Iraq.

*************
ARTICLE 3

Dhi Qar is awaiting the release of funds to implement projects for the 2020 and 2021 budgets
Monday, July 12, 2021 9:49 PM
Baghdad / National News Center

Today, Monday, the Governor of Dhi Qar, Ahmed Al-Khafaji, revealed the imminent announcement of projects for the year 2021 before the companies, while he indicated that the funds will be released from the Ministry of Finance to implement the projects of the 2020 and 2021 budgets.

Al-Khafaji said in a statement to the official agency, followed by the “National News Center”, that “our plan for 2021 has not been announced so far, and we are now waiting for the allocations of the Ministry of Finance,” adding that “the projects will be announced to companies in the next few days, and what is being done now.” These are projects for previous years that are ongoing and are being worked on.”

And he indicated that "the budgets of 2020 and 2021 allocated 300 billion to the Dhi Qar reconstruction fund, and these amounts have not been spent so far due to the failure to refer projects by the Ministry of Finance."

Al-Khafaji pointed out that "the ongoing projects from earlier have also been allocated 300 billion, and they are currently funded according to the percentages of their completion and progress of work."
The governor of Dhi Qar, Ahmed Al-Khafaji, confirmed, on April 19, that "there is a tendency to form a reconstruction council to include most of the competencies in the province," noting that "the council's tasks are to supervise the development of work plans, and to supervise projects."

Al-Khafaji stressed that "the money will be spent on projects that serve infrastructure and services in Dhi Qar, and the money will not be diverted for the benefit of electoral work."

*************
ARTICLE 4

Parliament removes the questioning of the Minister of Finance from the agenda
 2021-07-12 14:13

Shafaq News/ The Iraqi Parliament deleted the interrogation paragraph of Finance Minister Ali Allawi from the agenda of the session scheduled for tomorrow, Tuesday.

The first version of the agenda included in the seventh paragraph the questioning of Allawi under the dome of Parliament.

However, the version published by the Information Department in the House of Representatives was devoid of the questioning paragraph, without the reasons being immediately clear.

For nearly six months, parliamentarians have been seeking to interrogate Allawi in parliament regarding the country's financial policies, including the government's reform plan known as the "white paper", the economic problems the country is experiencing, and the devaluation of the dinar against the dollar.

Below is the agenda for tomorrow's meeting (note: could not translate the agenda itself).

*************
ARTICLE 5

Iraqi forces overthrow the "lion of ISIS security" in Nineveh
2021-07-12 13:23

Shafaq News/ The Security Media Cell announced, on Monday, the arrest of the so-called "security lion of ISIS", in Nineveh Governorate.

The cell said in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency, "The Tal Afar Crime Control Office of the Directorate of Combating Crime, Nineveh Police Command, and after receiving accurate information and collecting information and through continuous follow-up, research and investigation, was able to arrest the dangerous terrorist nicknamed (Abu Youssef Asad Security)" .

And she added, "The terrorist was responsible for transporting the explosive devices inside the city of Mosul, and he also took charge of the so-called oil committee of the Bait Al-Mal during the period of ISIS control of the city of Mosul."

And he confessed about the effects of the injury on his body, according to the statement, "He was wounded in the battles to liberate the old city of Mosul, and he was arrested in the (Yarmouk neighborhood) on the side."

*************


No comments:

Post a Comment