An economist warns of a severe financial crisis and suggests adjusting the dollar exchange rate.
Economic expert, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, warned of the seriousness of the financial situation in Iraq, pointing to a large financial gap and escalating challenges that threaten economic stability in the coming period.Al-Marsoumi said, during his appearance on the “On the Ruler” program broadcast by Al-Furat satellite channel, that “Iraq’s balance at the Central Bank is likely to decrease by up to $5 billion per month,” considering that “the continuation of this decline in the medium term represents a great danger.”
He pointed out that "the new government may be forced to make a decision to adjust the dollar exchange rate, despite it being one of the worst means of financing the budget, in addition to raising fuel prices."
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Al-Marsoumi added that “the recent statements by the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Oil regarding the export of between 160,000 and 200,000 barrels per day through the Kurdistan Region pipeline were disappointing, as exports were supposed to reach about 300,000 barrels per day,” noting “the slowness in the procedures of the Ministry of Oil for exporting crude.”
He explained that "export operations through the south are facing challenges, with the absence of clear figures and the possibility of a decline in oil exports during April compared to March, which will negatively affect the Iraqi economy."
Al-Marsoumi explained that "Iraq is one of the countries most affected in the oil production file as a result of the closure of giant fields for long periods, which leads to complex technical damage, especially in fields that depend on water injection, which makes it difficult to restore their production capacity later."
Regarding the truth about the arrival of the dollar shipment to Iraq, Al-Marsoumi explained that "the American embassy announced that no dollar shipment was sent to the country, denying the narrative that attributes its delay to air traffic or the atmosphere of war, and confirming that this came by an American decision, which is a dangerous indicator."
He added that "the market responded to this development with a slight increase in the dollar exchange rate, considering this a clear message to the Iraqi government, indicating that the Central Bank's cash dollar balance currently stands at only about $612 million.
Al-Marsoumi stressed that “Iraq cannot sell its oil in anything other than dollars at present and that alternatives will take years,” warning that “delaying the release of cash shipments will lead to higher exchange rates,” calling on the government to “act quickly to address the crisis,” noting that “the current economic challenges require realistic solutions that are commensurate with the size of the crisis.”
Al-Marsoumi said, during his appearance on the “On the Ruler” program broadcast by Al-Furat satellite channel, that “Iraq’s balance at the Central Bank is likely to decrease by up to $5 billion per month,” considering that “the continuation of this decline in the medium term represents a great danger.”
He pointed out that "the new government may be forced to make a decision to adjust the dollar exchange rate, despite it being one of the worst means of financing the budget, in addition to raising fuel prices."
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Al-Marsoumi added that “the recent statements by the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Oil regarding the export of between 160,000 and 200,000 barrels per day through the Kurdistan Region pipeline were disappointing, as exports were supposed to reach about 300,000 barrels per day,” noting “the slowness in the procedures of the Ministry of Oil for exporting crude.”
He explained that "export operations through the south are facing challenges, with the absence of clear figures and the possibility of a decline in oil exports during April compared to March, which will negatively affect the Iraqi economy."
Al-Marsoumi explained that "Iraq is one of the countries most affected in the oil production file as a result of the closure of giant fields for long periods, which leads to complex technical damage, especially in fields that depend on water injection, which makes it difficult to restore their production capacity later."
Regarding the truth about the arrival of the dollar shipment to Iraq, Al-Marsoumi explained that "the American embassy announced that no dollar shipment was sent to the country, denying the narrative that attributes its delay to air traffic or the atmosphere of war, and confirming that this came by an American decision, which is a dangerous indicator."
He added that "the market responded to this development with a slight increase in the dollar exchange rate, considering this a clear message to the Iraqi government, indicating that the Central Bank's cash dollar balance currently stands at only about $612 million.
Al-Marsoumi stressed that “Iraq cannot sell its oil in anything other than dollars at present and that alternatives will take years,” warning that “delaying the release of cash shipments will lead to higher exchange rates,” calling on the government to “act quickly to address the crisis,” noting that “the current economic challenges require realistic solutions that are commensurate with the size of the crisis.”
Al-Marsoumi paints a worrying picture of the financial future and warns against tampering with the exchange rate.
Economic expert Nabil al-Marsoumi warned on Monday of the perilous state of Iraq's financial situation, pointing to a significant budget deficit and escalating challenges that threaten economic stability in the coming period.
In a press statement obtained by Video News Agency, al-Marsoumi said, "Iraq's reserves at the Central Bank are projected to decline by up to $5 billion per month," adding that "the continuation of this decline in the medium term poses a major risk."
He noted that "the new government may be forced to adjust the dollar exchange rate, despite it being one of the worst methods of financing the budget, in addition to raising fuel prices."
Al-Marsoumi added that "the recent statements by the Deputy Minister of Oil regarding the export of between 160,000 and 200,000 barrels per day via the Kurdistan Region pipeline were disappointing, as exports were supposed to reach approximately 300,000 barrels per day," indicating "a slowdown in the Ministry of Oil's procedures for exporting crude oil."
He explained that "export operations through the south are facing challenges, with a lack of clear figures and the possibility of a decline in oil exports during April compared to March, which will negatively impact the Iraqi economy."
Al-Marsoumi stated that "Iraq is among the countries most affected in the oil production sector due to the prolonged closure of giant oil fields, leading to complex technical damage, especially in fields that rely on water injection, making it difficult to restore their production capacity later."
Regarding the arrival of the dollar shipment to Iraq, Al-Marsoumi explained that "the US Embassy announced that no dollar shipment had been sent to the country, refuting the narrative that attributed the delay to air traffic or the war, and confirming that it was a US decision, which is a dangerous indicator."
He added that "the market responded to this development with a slight increase in the dollar exchange rate, considering this a clear message to the Iraqi government," noting that the Central Bank's cash dollar reserves currently stand at only about $612 million.
Al-Marsoumi emphasized that "Iraq cannot sell its oil in any currency other than dollars at present, and alternatives will take years," warning that "delaying the release of cash shipments will lead to a rise in exchange rates." He called on the government to "act swiftly to address the crisis," pointing out that "the current economic challenges require realistic solutions commensurate with the scale of the crisis."
Will current treatments succeed in containing the risk of monetary deflation?
The Iraqi economy is facing an increasing challenge in the form of a widening gap between available resources and economic obligations, which raises questions about the effectiveness of current government measures.
Economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned of the seriousness of the financial situation in Iraq, pointing to a large financial gap and escalating challenges that threaten economic stability in the coming period.
Al-Marsoumi said: “Iraq’s balance at the Central Bank is likely to decrease by up to $5 billion per month,” considering that “the continuation of this decline in the medium term represents a major risk.”
He pointed out that “the new government may be forced to make a decision to adjust the dollar exchange rate, despite it being one of the worst ways to finance the budget, in addition to raising fuel prices.”
Al-Marsoumi added that “the recent statements by the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Oil regarding the export of between 160,000 and 200,000 barrels per day through the Kurdistan Region pipeline were disappointing, as exports were supposed to reach about 300,000 barrels per day,” noting “the slowness in the procedures of the Ministry of Oil for exporting crude.”
He explained that “export operations through the south are facing challenges, with the absence of clear figures and the possibility of a decline in oil exports during April compared to March, which will negatively affect the Iraqi economy.”
Al-Marsoumi explained that “Iraq is one of the countries most affected in the oil production file as a result of the closure of giant fields for long periods, which leads to complex technical damage, especially in fields that depend on water injection, which makes it difficult to restore their production capacity later.”
Regarding the truth about the arrival of the dollar shipment to Iraq, Al-Marsoumi explained that “the American embassy announced that no dollar shipment was sent to the country, denying the narrative that attributes its delay to air traffic or the atmosphere of war, and confirming that this came by an American decision, which is a dangerous indicator.”
He added that “the market responded to this development with a slight increase in the dollar exchange rate, considering this a clear message to the Iraqi government, indicating that the Central Bank’s cash dollar balance currently stands at only about $612 million.
Al-Marsoumi stressed that “ Iraq cannot sell its oil in anything other than dollars at present and that alternatives will take years,” warning that “delaying the release of cash shipments will lead to higher exchange rates,” calling on the government to “act quickly to address the crisis,” noting that “the current economic challenges require realistic solutions that are commensurate with the size of the crisis.”
Committee Order No. 30 examines the mechanism for calculating petrodollar entitlements.
The Higher Committee for Coordination between Governorates stated in a statement received by Al-Furat News Agency that: “The meeting was held under the chairmanship of the General Coordinator for Governorate Affairs, Ahmed Al-Fatlawi, with the participation of committee members from representatives of relevant government agencies, including the Director General of the Sectors Department at the Ministry of Planning, the Director General of Industrial Activity at the Financial Control Bureau, the Assistant Director General of the Economic Department at the Ministry of Oil, in addition to a representative from the Ministry of Finance/Accounting Department.”
He added that "those gathered discussed mechanisms for calculating petrodollar entitlements for the governorates for past, present and future years, in a way that contributes to achieving justice in the distribution of wealth and enhancing development efforts in various governorates."
Kurdish demands on the table for the next government: oil, salaries, and Article 140
Parliamentary emphasis on the priority of enacting the oil and gas law
Maximizing revenues and the burden on the citizen
dated 5/5
In the latter part of the outgoing government's term, the cabinet sought alternative ways to increase state revenues and provide the treasury with the necessary liquidity to facilitate various forms of spending. Remaining dependent on a rentier economy reliant on crude oil production and exports, coupled with weak other revenue streams, exacerbated the liquidity crisis and deepened structural imbalances due to the isolation of these sectors.
We are not talking here about a financial crisis, but rather a liquidity crisis. Iraq is a rich country with enough money for construction, development, and covering expenses. Rather, we are talking about the measures, procedures, laws, and positions that the government puts in place, expressing its vision and stance on how to manage scarce economic resources. These reflect its philosophy and express its viewpoint on how to embody its various goals in a direction desired by the citizen who is harmed by that economic policy, such as raising the value of taxes, increasing customs tariffs on food and medicine, or reducing salaries under the name of the new (salary scale). Certainly, some segments of employees will see an increase in the value of the salaries they receive, but there are also other segments that will be harmed by the decrease in the value of their salaries. It is possible to raise the value of the lower salaries without reducing the salaries of others. The process cannot be unified in the general whole, and also without solving the problem with another problem.
On the other hand, these increases in taxes, customs duties, and electricity, water, health, and education tariffs all contribute to financial burdens that directly and heavily drain Iraqi families. The concept of economic diversification of revenues means achieving a greater number of primary income sources in the country by expanding production processes with diverse and innovative activities, thereby enhancing its true competitiveness within the framework of global competitiveness. The Ministry of Industry and Minerals has 312 factories, of which 225 are operational, while 87 are shut down. There are 144 partnership contracts with the private sector still under implementation and another 90 under evaluation. Thus, national production of all kinds remains unstable and under full production. When we reach a stage of full national production in both the private and public sectors, we can comfortably discuss maximizing state revenues, in addition to other financing avenues such as transportation, banks, border crossings, and controlled service collection, coupled with improved oil prices. Furthermore, there are bond sales, borrowing, and reserve discounting available tools for the state. (7) trillion (831) billion Iraqi dinars is allocated for the salaries of all Iraqi state employees, from the far south to the far north, and from east to west. A simple calculation shows that Iraq's average oil exports of 3 million barrels per day would have allowed it to maneuver economically more effectively than resorting directly to increasing the burden on the public through price hikes, taxes, and other meager revenue-generating measures that harm citizens and fail to diversify the state's income sources.
Economic policy needs constant renewal and periodic review in order to provide the best for the citizen and the state, and the best way to maximize revenues is through production in the various sectors of the state and developing them to the fullest extent, not the opposite.
Iraqi accounts at the Federal Reserve: Protection and financial challenges
The issue of managing Iraqi accounts at the US Federal Reserve occupies a prominent place in the economic and financial debate in Iraq, as it is one of the most influential issues affecting monetary policy and currency stability, in addition to its direct link to the question of financial sovereignty and the management of oil revenues. Although this mechanism was established under exceptional circumstances following 2003 to ensure the protection of Iraqi funds, its continuation to this day sparks considerable controversy between those who see it as a guarantee of financial stability and those who consider it a constraint on the country's economic independence.
Protecting Iraqi funds
Financial expert Dr. Nabil Al-Abadi believes that this mechanism represents “management by proxy of exceptional sovereign risks,” noting that it has played a pivotal role in ensuring the stability of government financing and protecting Iraqi funds, the importance of which cannot be underestimated in light of the challenges that the economy has faced in recent years.
Compliance requirements
In contrast, the economic aspect related to sovereign risk management stands out, as specialists point out that relying on a single financial channel to manage reserves and cash flows contradicts the principles of diversification adopted in modern banking systems. Previous experiences have shown that any delay in procedures or tightening of compliance requirements can quickly be reflected in the form of internal liquidity pressures, affecting the stability of the local market.
International standards
For his part, academic expert Dr. Nawwar Al-Saadi affirms that the presence of Iraqi accounts within the American financial system provides a high level of security and oversight, and reduces the risks of corruption and misuse, as well as enhancing the confidence of international partners. However, he points out at the same time that this administration is not entirely neutral, as the movement of funds is subject to strict regulatory oversight, which gives American authorities the ability to indirectly influence dollar flows, especially in cases of non-compliance with international standards.
Rapid intervention flexibility
Al-Saadi adds that the most prominent challenge lies in what can be described as a "partial restriction" of monetary policy, as a result of the dollar's management being linked to an external regulatory system, which limits the flexibility of rapid intervention in the local market.
According to economic conditions.
Between the advantages of legal protection and the risks of unilateral reliance, experts agree on a key point: the problem does not lie in the existence of this mechanism itself, but rather in how to manage the relationship with it. There is a need to strike a delicate balance between adhering to international compliance standards, enhancing the independence of financial decisions, and strengthening the local banking system.
Diversifying foreign reserves
In this context, experts stress the importance of adopting gradual reforms that include diversifying foreign reserves, developing the banking infrastructure, strengthening electronic payment systems, as well as reducing reliance on cash and expanding the base of financial inclusion.
Observers conclude that the US Federal Reserve's account management mechanism will remain, in the foreseeable future, an essential part of Iraq's financial stability system. However, the next phase requires a strategic vision aimed at building a more diversified and independent financial system, ensuring the sustainability of stability and reducing exposure to external shocks.
Nechirvan Barzani visits Baghdad to discuss government formation and relations between the region and the central government.
The President of the Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani, is heading to Baghdad today, Monday, for a two-day official visit to discuss a number of important political issues with Iraqi leaders .
According to a statement issued by the Presidency of the Region, which was reviewed by Al-Sa’a Network, “Barzani will hold a series of meetings with senior officials in the federal government, addressing developments in the political process in Iraq, the issue of forming the new government, in addition to relations between Erbil and Baghdad and a number of other issues of common interest .”
Barzani is accompanied by a delegation of prominent figures, including Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, Chief of Staff of the Presidency Fawzi Hariri, Director of the Office Nouri Othman, in addition to Abdul Hakim Khosrow and Falah Mustafa .
Barzani is scheduled to meet with leaders of the Coordination Framework, as well as hold a meeting with caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani .
He will also hold a meeting with Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zubaidi, in addition to a meeting with the head of the Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, and leaders of the National Political Council, as part of consultations aimed at strengthening political stability in the country
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International center: Iraq has an opportunity to accelerate economic diversification efforts
The International Trade Centre (ITC) believes the current phase presents an opportunity to accelerate Iraq's economic diversification efforts. Eric Bouchot, the ITC's program director in Iraq, told Al-Sabah newspaper that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with regional developments,
This has led to a sharp reduction in oil exports, the sector on which Iraq relies for most of its export revenues, and has also caused significant disruption to imports, including food and basic commodities.
He added that these developments have significant implications for trade and the private sector. On the one hand, the disruption of oil exports leads to a decrease in revenues, increased pressure on liquidity and public finances, and an impact on payments to suppliers. On the other hand, increased import costs and delays in the arrival of goods are likely to restrict companies' ability to obtain inputs, maintain production, and meet market demand, with small and medium enterprises being particularly exposed to these challenges.
He explained that this crisis highlights the structural weaknesses in the Iraqi economic model, as the heavy reliance on oil exports and the limited trade routes and markets reduce the ability to withstand external shocks.
Bushout noted that at the same time this stage represents an opportunity to accelerate economic diversification efforts by expanding non-oil exports, enhancing local production, and building a more competitive private sector. He considered the development of trade and exports a key element in this transformation, along with financial reforms. He added that strengthening integration into international trade frameworks can support Iraq in building a more flexible, transparent, and rules-based trading environment.
The vote on al-Zaydi's government will be held next week.
link
dated 5/5
The House of Representatives is awaiting the arrival of the government program within the next (48) hours, in preparation for presenting it to the members of the House and studying it by the Strategic Planning Committee, at a time when the ministerial formation is expected to be put to a vote during the next week.
Parliament Speaker Hebat al-Halbousi announced that the anticipated government program will arrive by the end of this week from Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi, and will be presented later in Parliament, coinciding with political preparations to name the cabinet.
In this context, MP Mohammed Al-Shammari, from the Services Alliance, told Al-Sabah: “The presentation of the ministerial cabinet will be on schedule, indicating that the Prime Minister-designate is proceeding with resolving the issue, with progress being made in reaching agreements on most portfolios, and about (40%) of them remaining under discussion.”
He added that the remaining disagreements are limited, and most of the political obstacles have been overcome, especially within the coordinating framework forces, noting the existence of a clear political will to resolve the entitlements, and considered the “constructive opposition” within parliament a positive factor in scrutinizing the selection of candidates.
Al-Shammari explained that Parliament has the authority to make comments or object to some names, indicating that the Prime Minister will put forward more than one candidate for some ministries, which will allow for a wider range of choices and enhance opportunities for competent individuals.
For his part, MP Hamid Al-Fatlawi, from the National Approach bloc, confirmed to Al-Sabah that the political forces are seeking to accelerate dialogues and meetings with the aim of completing the government within the constitutional period, or passing part of the cabinet in the first stage.
He noted that meetings are continuing between the coordination framework and the political process partners to complete the formation in accordance with the principle of political consensus, pointing out that some positions are still under discussion, including the deputy prime ministers and the deputy presidents.
For his part, the head of the National Relations Office in the Wisdom Movement, Muhammad Hussam al-Husseini, explained to Al-Sabah that the political negotiations have reached advanced stages regarding the distribution of ministerial portfolios, noting that some ministries may be redistributed among the components within the ongoing understandings.
Sudani and Barzani stress the need to expedite the formation of the new government
Parliament announces it will receive the government program from Al-Zidi by the end of this week.
Parliament Speaker Hebat al-Halbousi confirmed on Monday (May 4, 2026) that the parliament will receive the government program from Ali al-Zaidi, who is tasked with forming the new government, by the end of this week, while he indicated that the names of the ministerial cabinet will be put to a vote next week.
The media office of the House of Representatives said in a statement received by "Baghdad Today" that "the House of Representatives concluded its twenty-second session held today, Monday, under the chairmanship of Speaker Hebat Al-Halbousi and with the attendance of 217 members, four draft laws."
She added that "the Speaker of the Council confirmed at the beginning of the session that the House of Representatives will receive, at the end of this week, the government program from Ali al-Zidi, who is tasked with forming the new government, in order to inform the members of the Council about it and study it by the Strategic Planning and Government Program Committee," noting that "the names of the ministerial cabinet will be presented next week for a vote by the House of Representatives."
Customs automation halves demand for dollars: An economist reveals a radical shift in Iraq's foreign
remittances.
Iraqi economist Manar Al-Obaidi revealed a radical shift in Iraq’s foreign transfer balance during the first quarter of 2026, stressing that the implementation of the Asycuda customs automation system directly contributed to curbing what he described as the “financial bleeding” that accompanied import operations and international transfers for years.
Al-Obaidi explained, based on recent data, that the Central Bank of Iraq’s sales of foreign currency recorded a sharp and unprecedented decline, reaching about $10 billion during the first quarter of 2026, compared to much higher levels in previous periods.
He explained that the annual comparison shows a decline of 50% compared to the first quarter of 2025, while the quarterly comparison recorded a decrease of 49% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, in which sales amounted to about $21 billion, reflecting a clear gap in the volume of spending on hard currency.
Al-Obaidi stressed that this decrease does not reflect an economic recession, but rather represents a direct result of strengthening financial control tools, noting that the ASYCUDA system, along with the Advance Send system, played a pivotal role in reducing invoice inflation and preventing the submission of fake or overvalued import documents to obtain dollars.
He added that these systems also contributed to controlling the import movement by linking financial transfers to the actual goods entering the country, as well as monitoring re-exported goods and closing loopholes that were being exploited in money laundering or currency smuggling operations under the guise of commercial activity.
Al-Obaidi described the reliance on these digital systems as a "strategic achievement" for Iraqi fiscal policy, noting that it succeeded in a short period in reducing the demand for the dollar by half, which enhances the stability of the national currency and gives the Central Bank greater flexibility in managing cash reserves with higher efficiency.
From guns to offices: Quiet arrangements reshape the role of factions
.Stop provoking Trump until a satisfactory settlement is reached
In a development suggesting arrangements extending beyond domestic concerns, sources familiar with the behind-the-scenes negotiations last month revealed what they described as a "major surprise" regarding a covert Iranian role in managing the formation of the new government.
This role, they claim, was achieved through a carefully crafted plan designed to be implemented "without raising a fuss." Information obtained by Al-Mada from both Shia and Sunni sources indicates that this plan significantly contributed to resolving the conflict between Nouri al-Maliki and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, paving the way for a compromise candidate. Meanwhile, the silence of armed factions and the so-called "axis of resistance" raises significant questions, amidst a sarcastic description circulating about the anticipated government as "a Trump-esque government."
The story begins with a silent visit and decisive messages.
The roots of these developments trace back to mid-April when Ismail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, arrived in Baghdad for an unannounced visit—his first since the recent confrontation with the United States.
The visit, which was only revealed two days after his departure, came at a time when the "Coordination Framework" was mired in a political deadlock that had lasted for more than 160 days, without reaching an agreement on the name of the prime minister.
According to informed sources, Qaani held a series of meetings with key figures both within and outside the "Framework," warning of "real dangers that could lead to the loss of military privileges" within Iraq, and indicating the need to move to an "alternative plan."
Signs of the success of the Iranian intervention emerged, despite what was being circulated in political circles about its failure, after the Coordination Framework, for the first time in the last two weeks of the government formation deadline, managed to hold a decisive meeting
and agree on a consensus candidate.
It was noteworthy that Iran intensified its attention to its allies at what was considered the worst possible time, as the Iranian regime was experiencing unprecedented shocks due to the repercussions of the recent war. This was interpreted at the time, according to observers, as evidence that Iran would not abandon Iraq and would continue to cling to its pivotal role in the equations of regional influence.
“The Grand Settlement”: From Threat to Repositioning.
Sources reveal that what was proposed was not entirely new, but rather a revival of the “Grand Settlement” plan that has been circulating since early 2025 – with some modifications – amid expectations of a US escalation against Iran’s proxies in the region.
This settlement, when it was proposed less than a year ago, included two phases:
The first (current): reducing tensions with Washington by ending the role of “rebel factions” in exchange for maintaining the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) within the framework of the state.
The second (postponed): integrating the PMF into official security institutions, should the first phase fail.
The “rebel factions” include groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, which, according to the description, do not adhere to the official PMF line of avoiding regional interventions.
“Without Raising a Dust”: The Strategy of Quiet Infiltration.
According to the sources, the most prominent shift in the Iranian approach is the move from a direct military presence to consolidating influence through political and civil channels.
This strategy is based on: infiltrating governmental, diplomatic and security institutions, reducing overt military activities and avoiding any direct provocation of Washington.
In both phases, senior positions within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) appear to be a crucial bargaining chip, granting the parties involved additional leverage at the negotiating table. Simultaneously, they provide an alternative to compensate for positions that might be relinquished as part of the "settlement" arrangements, while ensuring the retention of significant influence within political decision-making centers.
The disarmament of factions could also be announced "symbolicly," as no official declaration has yet been made regarding the handover of weapons by the four factions that announced their disarmament five months ago. This is despite ongoing debate about the viability of this approach, particularly given concerns that some of these weapons might be transferred to or redeployed within the PMF, where some of these factions wield considerable influence.
In the same vein, Iran, according to circulating information, anticipates that Donald Trump's popularity may decline in the midterm elections scheduled for later this year. This could limit Washington's ability to intensify pressure on Tehran and, according to these assessments, restore greater influence to its allies in the region.
This shift, according to observers, explains the unusual silence of the factions regarding Donald Trump's statements supporting the nomination of Ali al-Zaidi, which included a call for the formation of a government "free from terrorism."
However, this American demand appeared, in the view of observers, to be inconsistent with the balance of power on the ground, especially since these groups hold at least 80 seats in parliament and have only effectively lost the position of deputy speaker, a post that does not carry decisive weight in the power-sharing equation.
Meanwhile
, questions are mounting about the nature of al-Zaidi's selection, a businessman not widely known politically.
Leaders within the "Coordination Framework" assert that the man is "supported by everyone" and "has no political father," a description seen as an advantage that allows for the distribution of influence without imposing a direct political cost on any party.
But informed sources indicate that this choice may be temporary, part of a plan aimed at: absorbing internal conflict, buying time, and awaiting the outcome of understandings with Washington.
Reports suggest that al-Zaidi might be dropped later, after the regional and international storm subsides.
Othman al-Shibani, a member of parliament from the State of Law Coalition, stated that Ali al-Zaidi attended more than 30 meetings with the Coordination Framework months before his name was officially put forward. He also noted that al-Zaidi participated in sessions within the parliament, explaining that he possesses a "distinguished economic mind."
These remarks appear to be intended to provide political context for Ali al-Zaidi, emphasizing that his involvement was not sudden or spontaneous, but rather preceded by numerous participations and meetings within the Coordination Framework. This refutes the notion that
his nomination was a surprise.
Despite the apparent calm from armed groups regarding the government formation process, political assessments indicate that the next government may be the most factional in terms of representation within the executive branch. This representation will likely be achieved through the appointment of "front men" for the factions and "unknown figures," with service and production ministries being allocated to these factions as part of a settlement to politically contain them.
To date, Ali al-Zaidi has not announced a clear position on the issue of armed factions' participation in the government, although this file is likely to become his most sensitive test, given the escalating American pressure to exclude these groups from the governing equation and readjust the balance of power within the state.
Political circles are circulating names associated with ministries such as Agriculture and Communications, amidst a power struggle between various factional and political parties, some of which are subject to American sanctions or prosecutions. Some
political circles believe that granting service or production ministries to the factions could be part of a settlement aimed at keeping them within the political process and reducing the likelihood of security escalation. However, this approach puts al-Zaidi's government to an early test, given Washington's requirement for a cabinet "free of terrorism."
Meanwhile
, the United States has not yet taken decisive practical steps to support the formation of the new government, aside from limited signals from US President Donald Trump, in addition to the continued freezing of some dollar shipments, according to diplomatic sources speaking to Al-
Mada.
Observers believe the current phase represents a dual test: internally, to gauge the incoming government's ability to manage the balance of power among the various factions, and externally, to assess its commitment to the conditions related to reducing Iranian influence.
In this context, former MP and independent politician Mithal al-Alusi revealed information suggesting the "reshuffling of figures close to Iran" within Iraq during this new political phase.
Al-Alusi warned against these developments, arguing that they could lead to the reactivation of influence networks extending both inside and outside Iraq, potentially contributing to renewed tensions in multiple regional arenas.
Ultimately, the selection of Ali al-Zaidi does not appear to resolve the existing political conflict. Informed sources indicate that the new government, if formed, will be merely the product of a fragile compromise based on a temporary truce among Shia forces and a less confrontational Iranian repositioning.
The US military is supporting the blockade in Hormuz with the "Sea Hawk"
The US Central Command announced on Monday that it was supporting the naval blockade of Hormuz with helicopters.
The command said in a statement: US Navy Seahawk helicopters are supporting Operation Freedom in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
She added, “Earlier today, these US military aircraft and Apaches were used to eliminate small Iranian boats that posed a threat to commercial shipping.”
Saleh's Paper
Dr. Mazhar Mohammed Saleh
May 4
The transformation Iraq has witnessed—since the twilight of individualistic authoritarianism following the 2003 U.S. invasion—has not been a fully realized transition, so much as it has been a faltering passage between two conceptions of the state: one dismantling its old legacy, and another whose conditions for birth remain unfulfilled. Consequently, the political entity has remained suspended—democratic in form, yet rentier in essence—perpetually reproducing itself, even as the faces at its helm change.
Thus, the state has failed to escape its structural predicament. Rent—unearned income—remains the alpha and omega of the narrative; it weaves the threads of politics just as networks of patronage are woven, and hollows out the market of its intrinsic meaning, until the latter has become a marginal entity in a nation where it deserved to be a primary, foundational actor. Into this void, clientelism has expanded, and oligarchies have taken root—groups that derive their power not from productive output, but from their proximity to a resource that remains inexhaustible, save for the extent to which rational governance fails in its management.
However, the winds of major global shifts—ranging from energy market volatility to geopolitical tremors—have struck this edifice at its very core. These forces have exposed its fragility and compelled a critical inquiry: Can a state truly endure without a functioning market? Or, conversely, can a market ever truly flourish under the shadow of a state that remains perpetually hostile toward it? From this juncture, the contours of a new horizon began to take shape—one in which the State and the market interact not on the basis of conflict, but rather upon a foundation of partnership. This framework falls within what is known in economic thought as the "Social Market Economy"—a concept that neither marginalizes the State nor unleashes the market without restraint, but instead establishes a precise equilibrium between the two. This perspective was notably articulated by Walter Eucken—regarded as the founder of the Ordoliberal tradition—who posited that economic freedom cannot be sustained without a rigorous legal framework, just as justice cannot be realized except within a disciplined market environment.
Thus, Ordoliberalism—which emerged in the 1930s—is not a call for an unfettered, laissez-faire economy; rather, it is a philosophy asserting that economic freedom necessitates a strong "rule-of-law state" to prevent it from degenerating into either anarchy or monopoly.
However, caution is warranted; for not everything born from the womb of the market yields praiseworthy outcomes. Karl Marx warned that capital, if left unchecked in its dominance, would inevitably reshape the state in its own image; similarly, John Rawls emphasized that justice cannot be derived *from* the market, but must instead be imposed *upon* it from a standpoint external to its inherent logic.
Consequently, addressing the structural distortions of the rentier state in Iraq necessitates a comprehensive package of interconnected transformations. These include rebuilding the state’s legitimate monopoly on power, strengthening the rule of law, and establishing a liberalized market operating within a robust regulatory framework. Furthermore, it is imperative to dismantle networks of political clientelism, channel domestic capital toward productive developmental trajectories, and strike a balance between economic efficiency and social justice. Thus, the persistence of the inherent contradiction between a rentier structure and a system of proportional-representation democracy will, without doubt, lead to the perpetual reproduction and recycling of the crisis in ever-shifting forms. Consequently, overcoming this impasse requires re-establishing the relationship between the state and the market within a framework of sound governance. Furthermore, the future of the social contract does not rest on the exclusion of either party, but rather on recalibrating the relationship between them according to a fundamental principle:
A state empowered by law, a market made effective by rules, and development grounded in production rather than in the distribution of rents.
In conclusion, Iraq stands at the threshold of a philosophical turning point—one that does not merely alter the tools of governance, but fundamentally redefines its very purpose. Is it a state of rent-seeking, or a state of rights? Is it an authority dedicated to the distribution of privilege, or a system dedicated to the creation of opportunity?
The "moment of birth" being heralded—often cited as April 27, 2026—is not an event to be measured merely in terms of days or months; rather, it is a consciousness taking shape, and a collective will in search of its true identity. If the state accurately interprets this pivotal moment, and if the market wisely recognizes its boundaries, a long-awaited equilibrium may finally be established between them:
A state upheld by law, a market regulated by order, and a democracy that is not reduced merely to representation, but is instead embodied—simultaneously—in both competence and justice.
The Iraqi Economists Network aims to establish an authoritative economic reference point in Iraq—one that prioritizes economics over politics and fosters economic literacy, particularly among the political class, as well as within the broader Iraqi public. By adopting a scientifically grounded economic discourse and striving to occupy an influential position within public opinion and society, the Network seeks to effectively convey its message to political decision-makers and influence economic policy decisions.
Note:
— The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the opinions or stances of the Network; rather, they represent the views of their respective authors.
