Oil and the dollar
Dr. Mustafa Muhammad Ibrahim
Political and economic events in the region are accelerating and growing as a result of the geopolitical and geoeconomic conflicts in the world, which are led by two poles: the first representing the Western world, the United States of America, and the second, the Islamic Republic of Iran, representing the Eastern world. From this standpoint, and looking at an analysis of the economic aspect only, and the lack of conflict of economic interests, whether in uranium enrichment, energy, and oil, i.e., acquisition, especially after restricting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on 2/3/2026 by the Iranian side.
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We know that this strait is one of the most important passages in the movement of trade exchange between Arab and foreign countries, as approximately (20) million barrels of oil produced from Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia pass through it daily, and its closure has caused an increase in shipping and insurance costs for goods and a rise in fuel and energy prices.
In Iraq, oil production in Basra stopped as a result of the closure of the strait, which led to the export of oil via the Kurdistan Region pipeline after the region reversed its decision to prevent the central government from exporting oil via Ceyhan. This will provide the country's general budget with (24) million dollars daily according to the current prices of a barrel of (97) dollars per barrel. The resumption of current exports constitutes (6) percent of its total oil exports, meaning that the daily revenues of Iraq from exporting (200) thousand barrels per day at a price of (97) dollars per barrel via the Turkish Ceyhan pipeline, after deducting transportation fees of (3.15) dollars per barrel, amount to approximately (24.21) million dollars daily. Transportation fees are divided into two parts.
The first (2) dollars within Iraqi territory per barrel will go to the companies that own the pipeline, namely (Rosneft of Russia 49 percent, Kar of the Kurds 40 percent and DEX Capital of the UAE 11 percent), and the second transportation fees in Turkey will be about (1.15) dollars per barrel passing through Turkish territory with a guarantee of final arrival at the port of Ceyhan. The summary of this whole process is to compensate for Iraq’s losses after the disruption of its exports through the Strait of Hormuz. It is necessary for the Iraqi Ministry of Oil to urgently extend lines and pipelines according to new and alternative routes through the port of Aqaba or through Syria, while developing the infrastructure of extraction projects and reducing dependence on high-risk sea routes.
With a simplified presentation, it becomes clear that the continued rise or fall of the dollar exchange rate against the dinar is a matter of debate among the public and specialists due to the conflicts of external factors between countries, as well as the demand for dollars by small traders who withdraw dollars from the market without real and official procedures. This indicates the continued importation of goods from (Iran, the UAE, Turkey, China), which necessitates that the Central Bank of Iraq put pressure on foreign reserves to meet imports, while putting in place real solutions for the parallel market in light of the continuous rise, including (simplifying procedures for small traders by opening a special platform for them, monitoring exchange companies to sell dollars outside the window at a price close to the official price, with a gap not exceeding 5 piasters, while granting them advantages, and neutralizing the quick exchange outlets). The question remains, why is the dollar exchange rate against currencies stable in the countries of the region?
Maliki sets conditions to obstruct Sudani's second term... and the Popular Mobilization Forces enter the fray.
An informed source revealed on Monday that Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition, informed the leaders of the Coordination Framework of his readiness to withdraw his candidacy for the position of Prime Minister, in exchange for not nominating and renewing the term of the current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, for a second term.
The source told Shafaq News Agency that "Maliki also stipulated that no figure who had previously held the position of Prime Minister in previous governments should be assigned," referring to the leader of the Victory Coalition, Haider al-Abadi.
He added that "several names have been put forward for the position, but no candidate has been decided yet," indicating that "the meeting of the coordination framework, scheduled for today, will discuss al-Maliki's conditions and look into alternative names."
The source indicated that "leaders in the Popular Mobilization Forces will have a role in choosing the candidate for prime minister," noting that "today's meeting may not resolve the issue, with the possibility of postponing the selection of the candidate to a later meeting."
The Reconstruction and Development Coalition confirmed on Monday that its leader, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, could be tasked with forming the new government within 48 hours, and indicated that he has broad support within the coordination framework and from other political forces.
The framework is preparing to hold a meeting this Monday evening to discuss nine candidates, amid the introduction of alternative names, including a consensus candidate, after the largest bloc called for naming its candidate in accordance with Article 76 of the Constitution, in light of political and security complications that may delay the resolution of the issue.
AFP: Maliki's chances of returning to the premiership are dwindling
Nouri al-Maliki's chances of returning to the post of Prime Minister in Baghdad have declined, political sources told AFP on Monday, as political parties began searching for an alternative candidate following the war in the Middle East, from which Iraq has not been spared the repercussions.
The “Coordination Framework” announced in January the nomination of Maliki to succeed Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, following the elections held in the country. However, Washington threatened to halt support for Baghdad if Maliki returned, causing confusion in Iraqi political circles.
Adding to the complications was the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, which affected Iraq, which has been striving for years to achieve a balance in its relations with the two influential powers, Washington and Tehran.
A source close to Maliki told AFP on Monday that it would be “difficult” for him to assume the post of prime minister in the next phase.
Other sources also confirmed his declining chances.
Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq announces that the Abu Ala'a al-Walai and Fadhila blocs have moved to oppose Maliki.
Saad al-Saadi, a member of the Sadiqun Movement, the political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, revealed that the two largest blocs in the State of Law Coalition, namely the National Approach (formerly Al-Fadhila) and the Victorious Bloc led by Abu Alaa al-Walai, have moved to the opposition front against Nouri al-Maliki assuming the premiership .
Al-Saadi said in a televised interview followed by Al-Sa’a Network, “We have no disagreements, no fragmentation, and no internal problems. There is consensus and agreement within the coordination framework, and nothing prevents us from announcing the withdrawal of Mr. Maliki’s candidacy .”
He pointed out that "during the next two days there will be a meeting of the coordination framework to announce the name of the candidate for prime minister, and the majority of political blocs, if not all of them within the framework with the exception of Maliki, support changing the name of the candidate ."
He explained that "the issue of withdrawing al-Maliki's nomination has become a foregone conclusion within the framework, and we are in the process of maturing discussions in order to agree on the name of a new candidate," noting that "so far there is no conviction or final agreement on withdrawing the rest of the candidates' names ."
He added that "the majority of the coordinating framework, including the approach and the victors, supported withdrawing al-Maliki's nomination ."
He pointed out that “Al-Sudani’s name is being put forward for nomination along with Bassem Al-Badri, and there are other names being put forward, and the decision on the candidate’s name depends on the next meeting of the Coordination Framework,” stressing that “Al-Sudani and Al-Badri enjoy the confidence of the Asa’ib, as well as the rest of the forces of the Coordination Framework
The return of the vice presidents: A compromise proposal to appease Maliki and Halbousi
Various political sources revealed on Monday a governmental and political movement to reactivate the position of the two vice presidents of the republic, with a proposal to assign the two positions to Nouri al-Maliki and Mohammed al-Halbousi as part of settlements aimed at achieving political balance.
A source told Shafaq News Agency that "the political forces within the State Administration Coalition are studying a mechanism to reactivate the two positions, assigning one of the seats to Maliki and the other to Halbousi," noting that "the position may be acceptable to both figures."
In contrast, MP Firas Al-Muslawi, spokesman for the Reconstruction and Development bloc, told Shafaq News Agency that “activating the two vice-presidential positions is open for discussion within the political understandings and is subject to consensus,” indicating that “Al-Maliki had previously rejected the position, and it is unlikely that he will accept it even if it is activated, with the possibility of a decision being issued soon on this matter being ruled out.”
Regarding the meeting of the Coordination Framework, Al-Muslawi indicated that "the leaders of the Shiite House will hold their periodic meeting today to decide on the mechanism for choosing the Prime Minister," considering that Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani is "the most likely to be elected for a second term, with the support of the majority of the Framework’s components, especially since the Reconstruction and Development bloc has 51 seats."
But another political source explained that “Al-Sudani received messages from conservative Shiite leaders, advising against relying on the results of the presidential election session, because the numbers are not fixed and the previous scenario may not be repeated.”
Parliament Speaker Hebat al-Halbousi had called on President Nizar Amidi, after he took the constitutional oath on Saturday (April 11), to consult with the political blocs to name the vice presidents of the republic in accordance with Article 75 of the constitution.
In 2016, Haider al-Abadi’s government abolished the positions of vice presidents as part of a package of reforms, before the Supreme Federal Court later ruled the abolition unconstitutional, stressing that the position was a constitutional duty.
Intense political activity in Baghdad: Consultations to name a government candidate within the 15-day deadline
Political activity is escalating in Baghdad as the constitutional deadline for forming the new government approaches, amid intensive consultations led by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani with leaders of political forces.
In the past few hours, Al-Sudani held separate meetings with Mohammed Al-Halbousi, Ammar Al-Hakim, and Hadi Al-Amiri to discuss the features of the next stage and to reach a consensus formula that would lead to the formation of a coalition government capable of managing the political and economic challenges.
The discussions focused on the need to unify the positions of the national forces and strengthen internal unity, in order to protect the country’s stability and preserve its sovereignty, in addition to supporting reform steps and continuing development projects.
The meetings also addressed developments in the regional landscape amid escalating tensions, emphasizing the importance of insulating Iraq from the repercussions of conflicts and maintaining its balanced foreign relations.
The coordinating framework is expected to meet this evening, Monday, to resolve the issue of the prime ministership, given the division over the previous nomination of State of Law Coalition leader Nouri al-Maliki. Leaks indicate that the framework is preparing to present three candidates: either re-nominating the current caretaker Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, or turning to the compromise candidates, Basim al-Badri and Hamid al-Shatri.
In the same context, the “Coordination Framework” faces a constitutional deadline of 15 days to present its candidate to President Nizar Amidi, in preparation for assigning him to form the new government, amid ambiguity surrounding the identity of the final candidate.
The data indicates that Nouri al-Maliki’s chances have declined due to internal and external reservations, including the position of US President Donald Trump, while political circles are discussing alternative names, including Hamid al-Shatri and Basim al-Badri.
Between the option of maintaining the current nomination or moving towards a consensual alternative, the forces of the framework stand before a crucial decision that will determine the course of the political process in the next stage, as the countdown to the constitutional entitlement begins.
The Kremlin: Russia is ready to take possession of Iran's enriched uranium as part of any peace agreement.
The Kremlin announced on Monday that Russia is ready to take possession of Iran's enriched uranium as part of any potential peace agreement with the United States.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in response to a question from AFP that "President (Vladimir) Putin expressed this proposal during contacts with both the United States and regional countries. The offer still stands, but no action has yet been taken on it."
The Kremlin also criticized Trump's threat to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after the failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran hosted by Pakistan, and the announcement by the US military that it would begin a blockade of Iranian ports later on Monday.
Peskov said that "such steps will likely continue to have a negative impact on international markets."
Axios: Iranians have proposed monitoring uranium enrichment instead of halting it completely (Update)
On Monday, the American website Axios revealed details of the negotiations in Pakistan, indicating that the Iranian negotiating delegation proposed monitoring uranium enrichment instead of halting it completely.
Axios quoted a US official as saying that the United States proposed that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment during negotiations held in Islamabad over the weekend.
The United States also demanded that Iran remove all its highly enriched uranium. According to the sources, the Iranians said they would instead agree to a "monitoring process to reduce the enrichment level."
Sources say that disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program – in particular, whether Tehran would agree not to enrich uranium and to give up its current stockpile – were the main sticking point that prevented an agreement.
He indicated that Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators are now trying to bridge the remaining gaps and reach an agreement to end the war before the ceasefire expires on April 21.
Despite the lack of an agreement, the Iranians believed they were close to reaching a preliminary deal by Sunday morning, only to be surprised by the press conference held by US Vice President Vance. The Vice President gave no indication that an agreement was imminent, blamed the Iranians, and announced the departure of the US delegation from Islamabad.
An informed source said: "The Iranians were furious about that press conference," as Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of the Iranian parliament and part of the Iranian negotiating team, said on Monday that "the two American demands regarding the nuclear issue were the reason for the failure to reach an agreement."
Four committees formed... Baghdad and Erbil meetings continue regarding customs and ASYCUDA
The technical committee meetings between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government regarding customs and the ASYCUDA system continued for the third day, and four new committees were formed.
A source in the Iraqi General Authority of Customs stated, according to the Kurdish media network Rudaw, on Monday, that the technical committee meeting would continue for the third day in Erbil, noting that the head of the authority "will not participate, and the work has been left to the committees."
A technical delegation from Baghdad, including representatives from the Ministry of Finance and the General Authority of Customs, arrived in Erbil on April 11 and began its meetings with the General Authority of Customs and relevant parties in the Kurdistan Region regarding customs and the ASYCUDA system.
The head of the Erbil Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kilan Haji Saeed, indicated in a statement to Rudaw Media Network that four joint committees were formed from both sides: legal, customs, tax, and information technology committees for the ASYCUDA system.
The committees were formed based on previous understandings between Erbil and Baghdad regarding the implementation of the ASYCUDA system and customs tariffs at the Kurdistan Region's border crossings.
Kilan Haji Saeed stated that the four committees will work together until the agreement is implemented, after which the ASYCUDA system will be handed over to the Kurdistan Region. He noted that part of the committees' work involves legal procedures that will facilitate matters for traders.
The agreement between Erbil and Baghdad on customs and ASYCUDA is scheduled to be submitted to the Iraqi Ministerial Council for Economy after the technical committees conclude their meetings.
A senior official in the Kurdistan Region told Rudaw, "It has been decided that the committee meetings will continue until a final result is reached."
Government advisor: Proposal to build a land logistics system linked to regional ports
The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, confirmed on Monday that closing the Strait of Hormuz threatens global energy markets, while noting that there is a proposal to develop logistical routes in cooperation with neighboring countries that are less expensive.
Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “The repercussions of closing the Strait of Hormuz depend primarily on the duration of the ongoing conflict in the region, and whether it is short-term or extends for years, given the direct impact this would have on energy markets and the global economy.”
He explained that "a long-term shutdown scenario is radically different from short wars, as it will have profound effects on global energy markets and reinforce the position of oil as a strategic commodity with crucial political and economic dimensions."
He pointed out that “the continuation of the war for years may turn the Gulf into something resembling a sea that is almost closed to global trade, which will push the countries bordering it, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran, to reshape their trade relations, especially with regard to oil export outlets and trade exchange,” noting that “the cost of the conflict will rise to significant levels for the Gulf states, which will bear direct and indirect economic consequences, which necessitates a reconsideration of economic geography and a search for alternative trade outlets, as well as the possibility of adapting to a scenario of partial or temporary dispensing with the Strait of Hormuz.”
He explained that “Iraq’s options remain relatively limited, as it relies mainly on land routes to neighboring countries overlooking the seas, such as Turkey, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, in addition to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Despite the high cost of alternatives in the short term, the necessity dictates building an integrated land logistics system linked to regional ports.”
He noted "a growing trend towards developing logistical routes, both old and new, in cooperation with neighboring countries that are less expensive, in order to ensure the continued marketing of Iraqi oil and trade."
He added, "The (Development Road) project represents a fundamental pillar in this approach, as it is based on linking regional economic interests with transport and trade networks that enhance stability and reduce dependence on sensitive and more costly maritime routes."
He pointed out that "the decisive factor in the long term remains the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring that it remains a free passage for global trade, in accordance with the principles of freedom of navigation and the rights of states."
He added that “keeping the strait open is strategically integrated with the (Development Road) project, and contributes to creating a less costly economic environment, and enhances the geo-economic interdependence between the countries of the North and the South, enabling Iraq to become a major axis in this interdependence, by moving from the concept of (shared loss) to (shared profit).”
The Ministry of Transport announces the success of the first trial flight of the TIR system on the Türkiye-Iraq-Saudi Arabia route.
Al-Shahmani said in a statement received by Al-Furat News Agency: “The journey started from the Ibrahim Al-Khalil border crossing and arrived at the Arar border crossing within the planned timeframes and without any significant obstacles, which reflects the efficiency of coordination between the concerned authorities and the readiness of the procedures adopted on this route.”
He added that "this trip came as a result of a series of meetings and technical consultations held between the International Road Transport Union and the contact point in the Ministry of Transport, represented by the Iraqi engineer Israa Hanoun Ghafel, in coordination with the Saudi side, where it was agreed to grant Turkish truck drivers a transit visa with trucks loaded with goods (TIR) without the need to change trucks at the border, which directly contributes to simplifying procedures and speeding up the movement of transport."
He pointed out that "the company, as the local guarantor for the implementation of the (TIR) agreement, is working to apply the best international practices in order to reduce transit time and lower logistical costs, as well as enhance the smooth flow of goods through border crossings."
He added, "This new corridor represents a strategic step to enhance land connectivity between Asia, Europe, and the Gulf states, and increases the reliability of regional trade routes," stressing that "Iraq continues to consolidate its position as a vital corridor linking the north and south and supporting regional and international supply chains."
Al-Shahmani noted that "the success of this experiment will open the way for expanding work on this route to include more shipments and countries, which will contribute to strengthening Iraq's economic position and revitalizing trade through its territory, in line with the government's directions to transform Iraq into a major transit center serving international trade."
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A small meeting of the framework was held at al-Maliki's house, and the latter proposed al-Shukri's name to assume the position of Prime Minister.
On Monday evening, the leaders of the Coordination Framework held a small meeting at the home of Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition, to discuss the agenda of the upcoming meeting dedicated to deciding on the issue of the anticipated premiership. Al-Maliki is proposing the name of Ali al-Shukri to assume the position of Prime Minister.
An informed source told local media outlets, as reported by Al-Mirbad, that the meeting included the head of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, the head of the Supreme Islamic Council, Humam Hamoudi, the head of the Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, the Secretary-General of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq Movement, Qais al-Khazali, and the leader in the Popular Mobilization Forces, Abu Fadak al-Muhammadawi.
He indicated that the attendees discussed the agenda for the upcoming meeting of the Coordination Framework, which will be held at Humam Hamoudi’s house, and the proposed names nominated for the position of Prime Minister.
The source indicated that "Maliki proposed nominating the leader and former minister in the Sadrist movement, Ali al-Shukri, to assume the position of Prime Minister in the next government."
He added that "those present at the meeting agreed to add Shukri to the list of candidates, with all of them to be presented at the next meeting of the coordination framework."
The Saudi Foreign Minister discusses with his Iranian counterpart the latest developments in the peace negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, the Saudi Foreign Minister, received a phone call today, Monday, April 13, 2026, from the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Abbas Araqchi.
According to a statement from the Saudi Foreign Ministry, the call included a review of bilateral relations between the two countries, as well as an in-depth discussion of current developments on the regional and international scenes, specifically in the wake of the recent "peace negotiations" between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America.
The two sides also exchanged views on the results of those negotiations and their potential implications for the security and stability of the region, stressing the importance of continued coordination and consultation to follow up on issues of common interest.
It is worth noting that this diplomatic move comes in the context of continuous monitoring of the rapidly evolving political and military developments in the region and building bridges of communication to promote regional peace.
The Central Bank of Iraq: Our reserves cover approximately 13 months of imports.
The Central Bank of Iraq affirmed the strength of its foreign reserves and its ability to maintain monetary and financial stability, noting that these reserves cover about 12 months of imports, providing a large margin of safety to face economic challenges.
The bank stated in a statement that its board of directors held an extraordinary session to follow up on economic and financial developments, during which a comprehensive assessment was made of macroeconomic indicators, liquidity levels, and the performance of the banking sector, in addition to studying the potential risks resulting from regional and international changes.
He explained that the council discussed a number of economic scenarios for the coming period, focusing on enhancing the flexibility of monetary policy and ensuring the sustainability of financial stability, stressing that the bank has the tools to deal with various developments.
The statement indicated that the current foreign reserves are comfortable and secure, and support the bank's ability to manage monetary policy effectively, as well as enhance confidence in the country's financial system.
He also stressed the importance of ensuring that salaries and basic expenses are secured during the coming months, which will contribute to supporting living standards and the continuation of normal economic activity.
He explained that the bank continues to support the liquidity of banks to ensure the smooth flow of daily banking operations, enabling them to meet the needs of citizens and the private sector, in addition to confirming the continued smooth flow of external transfers to cover import operations and international payments.
The Central Bank of Iraq concluded its statement by affirming its readiness to take appropriate measures at the right time to maintain market stability and enhance confidence in the banking sector.
Expectations of a ceasefire extension and a second round of negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan
American press reports on Monday (April 13, 2026) indicated that there is intensive diplomatic activity and ongoing contacts between the United States and Iran, amid signs of progress in efforts to reach an agreement between the two sides.
Reports quoted informed sources and US officials as saying that "the parties concerned are currently considering setting possible dates and locations for a future meeting if talks with the Iranian side and mediators continue to progress," noting that discussions regarding the possibility of a second direct meeting are still in their initial stages.
The sources added that there is a possibility of holding another round of negotiations, noting that Türkiye is making strenuous efforts to play a mediating role and bridge the gap in viewpoints between Washington and Tehran.
In a related context, the sources revealed the possibility of extending the ceasefire between the two sides, depending on the pace of negotiations and the results that will emerge from the meetings during the coming days, stressing that there is tangible progress in the path of de-escalation and working on formulating common understandings.
The waters of the Strait of Hormuz are boiling to the beat of the drums of war being pounded by U.S. President Donald Trump from behind his Truth Social screen.
Or will the Chinese secret turn Hormuz into a graveyard for fleets and ignite a massive global confrontation?
