Amid the vicissitudes of war and economic pressures, Iraq is banking on financial resilience to protect the salaries of 9 million Iraqis - Urgent
The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed on Saturday (March 14, 2026) that estimates indicate that the ongoing war in the region will not last more than four months at most, while stressing that the government places salaries, wages, pensions and social welfare at the top of its priorities.
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Saleh told Baghdad Today, “The current political and geopolitical situation cannot be accurately assessed, but we do not expect this war to last more than four months at most,” stressing that “the outbreak of a third world war is completely unlikely.”
He added that “the government gives top priority to salaries, wages, pensions and social welfare, because they affect the income of about nine million people in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region,” explaining that “this income supports families whose number of members is estimated to be about four times this number, considering that each salary covers about four individuals.”
Saleh pointed out that “the current situation has shown some difficulties during the current and coming months as a result of a partial disruption in oil exports,” noting that “there are institutional mechanisms to coordinate exports, and some exports have begun to partially return through areas such as Ceyhan, reaching about 40% of the previous export capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, which is approximately 1.4 million barrels per day.”
He explained that “there is a balance between price and quantity under the current prices, which makes public finances able to withstand pressures.”
The financial advisor explained that “the government followed a gradual and logical austerity policy, focusing on operational priorities such as salaries, wages, pensions and social welfare, while postponing or stopping unnecessary expenditures.”
He added that “if the war continues for a longer period, the government may resort to limited domestic borrowing with the support of the Central Bank through what is called Iraqi quantitative easing, which relies on high foreign reserves to secure liquidity when needed.”
Saleh affirmed that “Iraq has the ability to confront geopolitical and financial shocks, and the government is working around the clock to ensure cash liquidity and budget stability,” noting that “spending is currently being carried out according to the mechanisms of the amended Financial Management Law No. 6 of 2017, with the adoption of the spending arrangements approved in last year’s budget.”
He also pointed out that “there are efforts to boost non-oil revenues by improving tax collection and collecting neglected tax bases,” stressing that “Iraq has large stocks of food and durable goods sufficient for long periods, with flexibility in trade policy and support from the private sector.”
Saleh concluded by saying that “estimates indicate the possibility of a resolution to the crisis within a maximum of four months, while continuing to focus on financial and economic priorities to ensure the country’s stability.”
The region is experiencing escalating tensions due to the ongoing war and its geopolitical repercussions, which have cast a shadow over energy markets and global trade. This, in turn, has affected the economies of countries linked to oil markets, most notably Iraq, which relies primarily on oil export revenues to finance its general budget.
With some oil exports disrupted and supply routes fluctuating, internal concerns have emerged about the ability of public finances to meet basic obligations, particularly salaries for employees and retirees and social welfare, which represent the main source of income for millions of Iraqi families.
Calls to regulate markets and protect citizens' purchasing power
Residents of Ramadi have called for stricter market controls during the final days of Ramadan and the lead-up to Eid al-Fitr, to prevent some merchants from exploiting the situation and raising prices excessively for families.
They emphasized that these price hikes place a heavy burden on families and limit their ability to meet their Eid needs, urging official authorities to regulate the markets and ensure that citizens can purchase their necessities without additional financial strain.
Al-Mashhadani: The Central Bank's initiative to lend to the government requires a swift response from Parliament.
Al-Mashhadani told Al-Furat News Agency that “the continuation of the caretaker government imposes legal restrictions on its ability to sign loan agreements, whether from the Central Bank or from abroad,” explaining that “this government does not have the full authority to conclude such financial understandings.”
Al-Mashhadani pointed out that "the solution lies either in expediting the formation of a permanent government that possesses full legal cover to manage the financial file, or in granting the caretaker government a clear authorization that allows it to borrow from the Central Bank, thus providing a legitimate cover that enables it to make the necessary economic decisions."
It is noted that the Central Bank of Iraq has expressed its readiness to lend to the government from its dinar reserves, which amount to no less than 30 trillion dinars, to cover the government’s financial needs for a period of no less than the next 5 months.
Iraq’s finances face two-month buffer before Hormuz disruption hits, adviser says
Borrowing mooted
Iraq has roughly two months before any disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz begins affecting state finances, the prime minister’s financial adviser said Saturday.
Mazhar Mohammed Salih told the Iraqi News Agency the delay reflects how oil trade works: shipments leave first and are priced later, meaning the financial impact of any export halt would not materialize until the fifth or sixth month after disruption begins. He estimated the war could last a maximum of four months.
Oil accounts for roughly 90 percent of Iraq’s government revenue, making the strait’s status one of the most closely watched variables of the conflict for Baghdad.
Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb. 28, Tehran has issued warnings to shipping and launched attacks in the region, effectively halting most commercial traffic through the passage and pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel.
If the disruption continues into that window, Salih said the government would likely resort to borrowing to cover salaries and meet financial obligations. He warned Iraq could enter a period of austerity affecting wages, pensions and social welfare payments, with the government relying on internal borrowing backed by cash reserves.
The stakes were underscored Thursday when two oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi territorial waters near Faw, killing at least one crew member and leaving others missing. Rescue operations were ongoing, port authorities said.
Iraq’s Oil Ministry expressed “deep concern” over the incidents, saying energy supply routes “must remain free from regional conflicts.” The State Organization for Marketing of Oil warned the attacks threatened maritime navigation and oil operations in Iraqi territorial waters.
Trump Announces Multinational Effort to Open and Secure Hormuz Strait
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that several countries will send warships to the Hormuz Strait to make it “open and safe."
Following military operations involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, now in its third week, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard declared the strait closed earlier this month to most commercial traffic.
The closure of the Strait has triggered a global energy crisis, causing oil prices to surge past $100 per barrel and forcing a 97% drop in regional maritime traffic.
Countries to Join US in Securing Hormuz Strait Despite Iran Threat
“Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending warships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe," Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday.
He noted that although Iran’s military capability is fully destroyed, they can still easily send drones, drop mines, or launch missiles along the waterway.
Trump Calls for International Support to Open Strait
“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated," he added.
Trump said the United States is currently attacking “the hell out of the shoreline and continually shooting Iranian boats and ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”
Iran Vows to Keep Strait Blocked; U.S. Prepares
In his first public statement since succeeding his father, the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, announced last week that the "lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used.”
The Revolutionary Guard also maintained that not "a liter of oil" will pass for the U.S. or its allies, and any vessel linked to them will be considered a "legitimate target."
Earlier, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said the Washington is prepared for possible Iranian efforts to block the waterway, working on clear objectives and strategies.
Meanwhile, General Dan Caine called the strait “a tactically complex environment,” emphasizing that military escort operations should align with broader strategic goals before any large-scale action.
Trump urges other countries to send ships to secure the Strait of Hormuz
Araghchi: Washington is begging others and China to secure the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi asserted on Saturday that the security umbrella promoted by the United States has proven a complete failure, noting that it has become "riddled with loopholes" and a source of problems and tensions instead of achieving the purported deterrence in the region.
In a post on the X website, which was monitored by the Video News Agency, Araqchi stated, "It has become clear that the so-called American security umbrella is full of loopholes and a source of problems instead of deterring them."
He added that "the United States is now begging others, even China, to help it make the Strait of Hormuz safe."
Araqchi emphasized that "Iran calls on its brotherly neighbors to expel foreign aggressors, especially since their sole concern is Israel."
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Tensions between the United States and Iran have reached a new level with Kharg Island, the main hub of Iranian oil exports, being the target of attacks, and an economist says: "The heartbeat of Iranian oil is in danger.
Economist Omid Karadaghi said that US forces have destroyed military targets in Kharg Island, while Donald Trump said that "all military targets have been flattened," the island's economic nerve Iran accounts for 90 percent of the country's total oil exports.
"The US president has warned that if Iran continues to obstruct ships in the Strait of Hormuz, they will target Iran's "oil infrastructure.
Iran's armed forces have threatened to attack the energy infrastructure of US-backed oil companies in the region.
"The disruption of Kharg Island means cutting 2 million barrels of oil from world markets, which will cause a fantastic rise in fuel prices, and Iran is a major supplier of oil to China," he said (about 11.6% of China's oil), and most of this oil is imported, so these attacks will have a major impact on China's economy.
Iran is OPEC's third-largest oil producer, producing more than 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.
Kharg Island is Iran's most important strategic center in the Gulf, the economic backbone of more than 90 percent of Iran's crude oil exports.
Kharg Island is also a large energy reservoir, has one of the largest oil loading terminals in the world and as a military fortress is one of the areas where Iran's most intensive air defense system is deployed.
Hamas calls on Iran not to target neighboring countries
and here is another article saying the same thing so I guess it's true
Rudaw Digital reported that Hamas on Saturday called on Iran not to target "neighboring countries" in the Gulf region in retaliation for the US-Israeli airstrikes it is facing, urging countries in the region to "cooperate" to stop the war.
In a statement received by Rudaw Digital, Hamas said that while it affirms the Islamic Republic of Iran's "right to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws," it calls on "our brothers in Iran not to target neighboring countries."
The movement called on all countries in the region "to cooperate to stop this aggression and preserve the bonds of brotherhood among them."
This statement represents a significant shift in the position of Hamas, which is considered an ally of Iran.
Hamas stressed that "it is in the interest of the Islamic nation and the region to stop this war," calling on all countries and international organizations "to work to stop it immediately."
It said it "appreciates all the efforts made by various countries to prevent its outbreak and to prioritize dialogue and diplomacy."
It reiterated its "strong condemnation of the American-Zionist aggression" against Iran, "which violates the rules of international law and international humanitarian law, and threatens security and peace in the region and the world."
Baghdad in talks with Erbil to export oil through its pipelines, says oil minister
Abdul Ghani said Thursday that oil production has diminished from over four million barrels per day to merely 1.4 million because of the war.
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq - Baghdad is in talks with Erbil to export some of Kirkuk’s oil through the Kurdistan Region’s pipelines with Turkey, Iraq’s oil minister said Saturday, coming as the Iran war has severely disrupted exports through the Gulf.
Iraqi oil minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani told The New Region that federal government is in talks with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to transfer oil from the Region’s pipelines to Kirkuk’s Ceyhan pipeline, which flows into Turkey, to resume exports from the key conduit.
Since the US and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran in late February, Tehran in retaliation has targeted neighbouring countries and shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway responsible for one fifth of the world’s oil.
Iraq has been severely affected by the disruption in oil transport through the Gulf.
“We are optimistic about reaching an agreement to transport oil through this method, until the ministry completes the renovation and repair works on the North Oil Company pipeline,” Abdul Ghani added.
US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that “many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe.”
Abdul Ghani said Thursday that oil production has diminished from over four million barrels per day to merely 1.4 million because of the war.
There have also been multiple attacks on tanker ships in the Gulf since the war started, including in Iraqi waters.
In the early hours of Thursday, two Marshall Islands- and Malta-flagged tankers were targeted within Iraqi territorial waters. One crew member was killed, and 38 others were rescued by Iraqi authorities, according to state media.
Baghdad has previously requested to export oil through the Kurdistan Region’s oil pipeline to allow for exports and cash access. However, Iraq’s continued trade embargo on the Kurdistan Region since the start of the year has prevented reaching a deal, according to a senior KRG official.
“Baghdad has enforced a complete trade embargo on the Kurdistan Region since January 1 this year. It has crippled our economy and finances and is existential for the Region,” the official told The New Region.
The official stated that the KRG would welcome Baghdad’s use of the pipeline, “but this embargo must be lifted too, even as temporary relief for the whole country until a long-term deal has been settled. We want to be helpful, especially to our US partners.”
“Iraq faces an unprecedented fiscal and economic crisis. Baghdad should be doing everything in its power to facilitate trade and exports — not stifle them,” they added.
The current disruption may also make it difficult for Iraq to pay civil servant salaries.
Iraq’s monthly oil revenues are deposited into its account at the US Federal Reserve, which are normally transferred back to the country accordingly.
In January and February, none of the revenue came through; a transfer was scheduled for the beginning of March, but after flights were suspended due to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the transfer route was cut off.
Iran hits UAE oil hub, vows retaliation for US strike on Kharg Island
Iran warned it could target US "hideouts" in the United Arab Emirates after a drone attack disrupted a major Emirati energy hub on Saturday, as the war entered its third week.
US forces on Friday struck Kharg Island, from which nearly all of Iran's oil is exported.
President Donald Trump said the strikes had "obliterated every MILITARY target", while sparing its energy facilities.
Iran had threatened that US-linked oil and energy firms would be "turned into a pile of ashes" if its energy facilities were hit.
Following the attack, Tehran warned that parts of the UAE were legitimate targets as they had been used to strike Kharg Island.
Iran called on residents to evacuate ports, docks and "American hideouts", naming Jebel Ali port in Dubai - the Middle East’s busiest - along with Khalifa port in Abu Dhabi and the port in Fujairah, a major Emirati oil storage and export hub.
The entire Gulf region has been gripped by the war that began with a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. The conflict has sent shockwaves through the global economy, triggering the largest disruption to oil supplies in history.
Oil prices have surged by 40 percent as Iran has choked off the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes, and attacked Gulf energy facilities. Clouds of black smoke rose over Fujairah on Saturday shortly after Iran's military warned civilians to evacuate port areas.
Some oil-loading operations have been suspended in Fujairah, industry and trade sources told Reuters.
Trump appeared to call for reinforcements in the region on Saturday, urging countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. The US president had earlier vowed that the US Navy would "very soon" start escorting tankers through the strait.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said many countries would send warships to allow shipping to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz. He did not provide details on which countries would do so, but said he hoped that China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and others would send ships to the area.
Trump also said that “in the meantime”, the US would continue to bomb the Iranian coast and target its navy.
"One way or another, we will soon open the Strait of Hormuz," he wrote.
Meanwhile, the US embassy in Iraq was hit by a drone in the second such attack since the war began, and the Emirati consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan was struck for the second time in a week.
Qatar evacuated downtown areas and intercepted two missiles, while Kuwait said two drones targeting an airbase housing US military staff wounded Kuwaiti staff and caused damage.
A US-Israeli attack on a factory in Isfahan, central Iran, killed at least 15 people. Iranian media reported that workers were inside the facility that manufactures heaters and refrigerators when the attack struck.
Kurdistan PM, U.S. Envoy Discuss Regional Security in Phone Call
Masrour Barzani and Tom Barrack condemn attacks on Kurdistan Region and U.S. Embassy in Baghdad
Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, held a phone call on Saturday evening with Tom Barrack, the U.S. special envoy for Syria and ambassador to Türkiye.
According to a statement released by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the two officials discussed the broader situation in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, and the wider Middle East amid ongoing regional tensions.
During the conversation, both sides condemned recent attacks targeting the Kurdistan Region as well as the United States Embassy in Baghdad, underscoring the need to protect diplomatic missions and maintain stability.
Barzani and Barrack also emphasized the importance of maintaining continuous communication between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the United States in order to address evolving security developments in the region.
"We condemned the attacks on the Kurdistan Region and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad," Barzani wrote on X. "We also discussed the situation in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, and the wider region."
The call comes amid heightened security concerns following a series of drone and rocket attacks targeting military and diplomatic facilities in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. Several of the incidents have been linked by Iraqi and international officials to Iran-aligned armed groups operating under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
Tensions have escalated across the Middle East since the outbreak of the ongoing confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.
The United States remains a key security and political partner of the Kurdistan Region, with American forces stationed in several locations in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region as part of the international coalition against ISIS and per the strategic security agreement between Iraq and the United States.
Officials in Erbil and Washington have repeatedly stressed the importance of coordination and dialogue to prevent further instability and safeguard diplomatic missions and coalition personnel.
Trump: Mojtaba Khamenei should surrender if he were alive
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that there was information suggesting that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, “may not be alive,” adding that if he is alive, “he should do something very wise for his country” by surrendering.
In an interview with NBC, Trump said the United States might carry out additional strikes on Iran's Kharg Island after "completely destroying" most of it, adding that Tehran wants to make a deal but he does not see the terms as "good enough" yet.
Trump announced on Thursday that US forces had targeted military sites on Kharg Island, the main hub for Iranian oil exports, and said the strikes destroyed all military targets there while avoiding directly targeting the oil infrastructure.
The island is an export terminal for about 90 percent of Iranian oil shipments, and is located about 30 kilometers from the Iranian coast and 500 kilometers northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's remarks come as diplomatic efforts to end the war have stalled. Sources told Reuters that the Trump administration rejected efforts led by Middle Eastern countries, including Oman and Egypt, to launch ceasefire talks, while Tehran insists on a halt to US and Israeli attacks before any negotiations can begin.
Regarding Khamenei, Trump said on Friday that he believed the new Iranian leader was “alive but damaged,” after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Khamenei was injured and likely disfigured.
Since the outbreak of war on February 28, the United States, Iran and Israel have exchanged large-scale strikes that have shaken energy markets and disrupted shipping in the Gulf, while the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island have become major points of pressure in the conflict due to their vital importance to the flow of oil.
With the disappearance of 10 Iraqi ministers, Baghdad's economy has entered a war and will survive on only one million barrels!
Summary by expert Mahmoud Dagher
Dr. Mahmoud Dagher, an academic and economist who held important positions at the Central Bank, presented a summary of the country's financial situation with the escalation of the Fourth Gulf War. Iraq was the "first country to enter a state of war economy" after the disruption of oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and the attack on tankers in Khor Abdullah. At best, it was no longer possible to export more than one million barrels (out of three and a half million barrels in the usual situation). He also pointed out that the government's situation was a "political vacuum" as 10 of Mohammed al-Sudani's ministers had become members of parliament while their ministries were currently being run by acting ministers, according to his observation during an interview with journalist Hanadi Sinan, which was followed by 964 Network.
Dr. Mahmoud Dagher:
25% of the world's oil comes out of the Strait of Hormuz, so it is impossible to close this strait. This region is a vital artery for the global economy. Under the current circumstances, with the price of a barrel of oil reaching about $100, this poses a problem for the Western consumer in the United States, Canada, and elsewhere. Will Iran be allowed to control this strait? I believe that measures will be taken in the coming period, and it seems that the war will not end quickly.
Iraq is now the only country that will be greatly affected if the war lasts too long, and it is the only country that has entered a “war economy,” and it is necessary to take quick action.
Now we are in dire need of a government that can control the “rhythm,” as the situation is currently very difficult, especially with a government in which 10 ministers have moved to the House of Representatives (their ministries are operating on an acting basis).
Oil exports, at best, can reach one million barrels. It is possible during the next two months to provide salaries through internal borrowing and also to benefit from reserves, but this does not mean that we are in a comfortable economic situation. We have entered a “war economy” and we need someone to control the mechanisms of the war economy in terms of spending and revenue.
"He passed over the bodies of 100 MPs"... Maliki and his team threaten to reject Sudani's nomination
The crisis of forming the Iraqi government is heading towards a more complicated stage after Nouri al-Maliki’s team succeeded in forming something like a “blocking third” within parliament, with escalating statements indicating that caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani may face major obstacles, including overcoming the “body of 100 MPs,” before proceeding with an attempt to renew his second term, according to Al-Mada newspaper .
The newspaper, in a report seen by Al-Sa’a Network, quoted its sources as saying that “at least 125 MPs signed pledges to refuse to renew Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s term, a number sufficient to form what is known as the blocking third within Parliament .”
She added that "this makes it difficult to pass the constitutional requirements related to the formation of the government, as the election of the President of the Republic - who in turn tasks the candidate of the largest bloc with forming the government - requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament (at least 220 deputies) ."
She indicated that "the political forces may decide on the name of the prime minister candidate in the coming days, but they are still waiting for the Kurdish forces' position on the presidential candidate before proceeding with the subsequent constitutional steps ."
She indicated that "the government was able to identify a number of armed groups and succeeded in reducing or stopping some of the attacks that targeted diplomatic interests inside the country ."
The report noted that "the environment of armed factions tends to support Maliki in his political struggle, especially after the escalation of attacks on American interests ."
He explained that "Maliki encouraged Kataib Hezbollah last week to draft a statement against Al-Sudani, calling for not remaining silent in choosing the prime minister, away from the dictates of the evil American administration ."
He added that "those forces fear that abandoning him will be interpreted as a retreat from the legacy of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was believed to have supported Maliki remaining as head of the next government
U.S. Flag Raised Over Embassy in Caracas for First Time in Seven Years
Restored diplomatic ties follow capture of Nicolás Maduro and rapid thaw in relations
The United States flag was raised above its embassy in Venezuela on Saturday for the first time in seven years, marking a symbolic restoration of diplomatic relations that had been severed in 2019. The move comes after the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro earlier this year and a rapid thaw in bilateral ties.
U.S. Charge d’Affaires Laura Dogu — the embassy’s senior diplomat — shared an image of the Stars and Stripes being raised outside the embassy in Caracas on X, writing, “A new era has begun. We’re staying with Venezuela.”
She noted that the flag was restored “exactly seven years after it was removed” on March 14, 2019, two months after Caracas cut ties with Washington over its refusal to recognize Maduro’s disputed 2018 re‑election.
The reopening of the embassy follows a dramatic shift in the diplomatic landscape triggered by a U.S. special forces raid in January 2026 that killed around 100 people and resulted in the capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were flown to New York to face drug trafficking charges.
The operation and subsequent leadership changes have helped pave the way for renewed engagement between Washington and Caracas.
Since then, relations have warmed rapidly. President Donald Trump’s administration has said it now effectively oversees Venezuela’s governance and control of its vast natural resource wealth following Maduro’s ouster.
Trump and Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez — Maduro’s former deputy — have signed energy and mining agreements that are expected to attract private investment and grant U.S. firms access to some of the world’s largest oil reserves.
Rodríguez has called on the United States to fully lift the sanctions that remained in place years after ties were broken.
The United States has eased portions of the seven‑year‑old oil embargo on Venezuela and issued licenses allowing select multinational companies to operate in the country’s oil sector under certain conditions.
These steps are part of broader efforts to stabilize relations and reopen economic channels between the two nations after years of diplomatic estrangement.
The flag‑raising ceremony drew attention from local residents in Caracas, many of whom expressed hope for improved international relations and economic progress. However, critics within Venezuelan society and its political establishment remain wary of U.S. influence, especially given Trump’s military intervention and growing American presence in the country’s strategic oil industry.
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