Is there a conspiracy against the Iraqi dinar? Revealing the secret of the stagnation of the local market
here is the podcast that covers what I said about these articles
The economic expert, Bassem Jamil Antoine, revealed today, Sunday, the secret of the stagnation of the local market, while confirming the existence of a conspiracy against the Iraqi dinar.
Antoine said {to Al-Furat News} that: “The stagnation of the local market is due to the citizen’s desire to maintain the value of the currency, so that he considers the dollar a stabilizing element of the currency despite the large supply of the dollar in the market.”
He added, "The Central Bank sold approximately 996 million dollars, and this amount is close to a billion dollars within 5 days."
Antoine continued, "This is evidence of a conspiracy against the local currency and an attempt to exploit the existing situation and monopolize it by mafias."
He pointed out, "The conditions in the Middle East play a role in the issue of the rise in the dollar exchange rates."
Advisor to the Prime Minister, Fadi Al-Shammari, revealed that Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani will announce next week a new banking service for small merchants that will lead to a decrease in the exchange rate and facilitate their work procedures.
Al-Shammari said in a televised statement that those who manipulate the dollar are speculators, and the government provides the dollar through official platforms, and the government is not subject to blackmail by speculators who seek profit at the expense of citizens. At the beginning of implementing the platform, there were problems related to time, and now the delay has reduced to only three days.
Al-Shammari stated that the Prime Minister is making contacts and making an exceptional effort in constructive communication with the leaders and heads of states of the region and the world, and Iraq seeks to mitigate as much as possible the escalation taking place in the region, and what is happening in the region affects Iraq, considering that the Middle East is the heart of the world and Iraq is the heart of the Middle East.
The exchange rates of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar rose in the capital, Baghdad, with the closing, on Sunday evening.
Dollar prices recorded 161,650 dinars against 100 dollars with the closure of the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges, while prices this morning were 161,300 dinars against 100 dollars.
Until the selling prices in the exchange shops in the local markets in Baghdad rose, as the selling price reached 162,750 dinars for every 100 dollars, while the purchasing price reached 160,750 dinars for every 100 dollars.
Warning that Iraqi funds remain with the US Federal Bank
Today, Thursday (October 26, 2023), economic expert Saleh Al-Sarfi warned of the consequences of Iraqi funds remaining with the US Federal Bank, noting that their presence may constitute a tool of pressure exerted by Washington on Baghdad.
The banker said in an interview with "Baghdad Today", "All Iraqi oil funds are deposited directly in a special account in the US Federal Bank, and Baghdad is submitting a request to obtain the funds to cover operational expenses and the rest of the other obligations," pointing out that "this procedure is not recent, but has been adopted." During the economic blockade in the nineties of the last century after the application of the oil-for-food principle.
He added, "Washington's excuses for keeping Iraq's funds under its control at the Federal Reserve are due to the state of political instability and the consideration that the country is going through complex and unstable circumstances, in addition to protecting the funds from a large number of cases filed against Baghdad as a result of previous wars."
He pointed out that "there are risks from Iraqi funds remaining in the US Federal Reserve, most notably the direct impact of any crisis that strikes the American economy, in addition to it being considered a pressure tool that Washington can exert towards Baghdad."
On October 6, Washington rejected Iraq's request to obtain one billion dollars in cash from the Federal Reserve Bank, under the pretext that it conflicts with their efforts to curb Baghdad's use of the dollar and stop illicit cash flows to Iran.
The American Wall Street Journal reported that since the American invasion of Iraq two decades ago, the United States has provided $10 billion or more annually to Baghdad via bi-monthly cargo flights, and the money is derived from the proceeds of Iraqi oil sales deposited with the Federal Reserve Bank.
American officials said, "Banknotes in the hands of Iraqis have become a lucrative source of illicit dollars that go back to militias and corrupt politicians, as well as to Iran."
By applying for an additional $1 billion shipment, Iraq says it needs the money to help prop up its faltering currency. A senior Iraqi official explained that "last week, the Central Bank of Iraq submitted an official request that the Treasury Ministry is still studying, after Washington rejected the initial request submitted by Iraq last month."
According to the newspaper, since last November, Washington has prevented 18 Iraqi banks from dealing in dollars, adopting stricter rules for electronic transfers in dollars from its banks.
Treasury officials told Iraqi central bank governors that sending a large additional shipment conflicts with Washington's goal of limiting Iraq's use of US banknotes, Iraqi officials said.
American officials spoke of conclusive evidence that some of the dollars that were arriving in Iraq were smuggled in cash over the years to Iran, as well as to Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan.
A Treasury Department spokeswoman said regarding the Iraqi request, “The United States continues to support Iraq with dollar banknotes and has not restricted its access to ordinary Iraqis and businesses,” indicating continued work with the Central Bank of Iraq.
Parliamentarian: America is trying to ensure its presence in Iraq.. This is the position of the resistance
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Member of the Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, Ahmed Al-Moussawi, confirmed today, Friday, that the Islamic resistance in Iraq will turn to target American interests if the government’s diplomatic approach does not work with the American side.
Al-Moussawi told Al-Maalouma, “The United States is trying, through its contacts with the Prime Minister, to put pressure to maintain the presence of its forces inside Iraq and ensure that they do not leave.”
He added, "The American administration knows very well that the continued presence of its forces inside Iraq and its rebellion against the Iraqi Parliament's decision to remove foreign forces from the country will expose it to many attacks launched by resistance factions."
He stated, "The resistance break has given the government an opportunity, through which it seeks to have the government use diplomacy with the American side. If this method does not work, then all US sites except embassies will be targets for the Islamic resistance.
Al-Shammari: The Sudanese will announce next week a banking service that will lead to a decline in the dollar
Al-Shammari said in a televised statement, "Those who manipulate the dollar are speculators. The government provides the dollar through official platforms. The government is not subject to blackmail by speculators who seek profit at the expense of citizens. At the beginning of implementing the platform, there were problems related to time, and now the delay has reduced to only three days."
He stressed that "food supplies were not affected by the rise in the price of the dollar, and the Prime Minister reviews on a daily basis a list of food prices in the local market, and the government provides a food basket for 10 months for citizens, and 12 months for social care," pointing out that "living issues were definitely not affected by the exchange rate." The dollar and the government will not allow the exchange rate to affect food prices.”
He pointed out that "the services file is one of the most prominent challenges facing the government as it continues to implement its project. The government is working with an executable strategic plan, and the precise daily follow-up of the Prime Minister is reflected in the great progress in work. The daily follow-up of work has led to work progressing beyond the scheduled schedule, and there are 190 basic and strategic projects." In Baghdad alone, this is a precedent that has occurred for the first time, and we will see a major boom in the value and quality of projects that will be launched in Baghdad and the rest of the governorates.”
Al-Shammari noted that “this year the government faced serious challenges, including the budget, and some budget items were launched and others are in the process of being launched. In previous budgets, it usually takes 3 months at a minimum to release the budget allocations when the data is completed after its already late approval. We will get rid of the problem of delay and release the budget allocations after approval.” Three-year budget.
He explained that "the government's wisdom in dealing with various political activities and components is considered its most prominent characteristic, while dealing realistically with regard to resolving files and the coordination framework, which is distinguished by the unity of decision-making that was present in many of its scenes."
Al-Shammari revealed, “The Prime Minister is making contacts and making an exceptional effort in constructive communication with the leaders and heads of states of the region and the world, and Iraq seeks to mitigate as much as possible the escalation taking place in the region, and what is happening in the region affects Iraq, given that the Middle East is the heart of the world and Iraq is the heart of the Middle East.”
Representatives: The political agreement paper has not been fully implemented, and the dollar is still stronger than the dinar
The Sudanese government has completed its first year and has obligations in the political file that have not been implemented and pledges to address the confusing economic file due to the rise in the dollar.
A year has ended in the life of the Sudanese government, which was formed after crisis political events... after which it came with a government curriculum that included addressing many unresolved files. According to the representatives, there are projects that have not been completed and the dollar is still stronger than the dinar, which means the problems of the economic file will continue.
As for the political agreement paper that was brought by the current government, it still contains demands by political forces that set conditions within the paper that have not been implemented yet, most notably the general amnesty law.
The remaining life of the government has a long way to go, involving important and sensitive files at various levels, including economic and political ones. No success can be achieved except by implementing the commitments and pledges in the government program.
Trade announces the postponement of the opening date of the Baghdad International Fair
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The Ministry of Commerce announced today, Thursday, the postponement of the opening date of the Baghdad International Fair until next January, attributing the reason to responding to the requests of several countries to grant them a period of time to participate in the exhibition.
Ministry spokesman Muthanna Jabbar said in a statement received by Earth News Agency, “The Iraqi government responded to the requests of several countries by granting them a deadline to participate in the 47th session of the Baghdad International Fair,” noting that “the new date will be the beginning of next January 2024.”
He added, “This measure is evidence of Iraq’s openness to all countries and its welcome of their participation, especially those that held joint committees,” noting that “all preparations, reserved exhibition spaces, and decorations are still in place, proven, and have not changed.”
He stressed that “the companies that decided to participate in the exhibition amounted to 850 companies out of 21 countries, including 8 Arab and 13 foreign.”
What should be put in Sudanese's bag during his visit to Washington?
The expert in Iraqi-American affairs and relations, Kato Saadallah, revealed the files that should be clarified in the bag of Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani during his visit to Washington.
Saadallah said: For the program {Free Speech} broadcast by Al-Furat satellite channel this evening, it said: “A Sudanese visit to Washington must bring in his bag of achievements to prove to the American ally how he will deal with him in terms of oil, the economy, the dollar, the banking system, and others.”
He added, "The Sudanese was sent to Washington to solve the dollar problem and he made great efforts, but the dollar problem is more internal than external and is in the hands of those who control prices."
Saadallah continued, "The Sudanese enjoys American and regional support, and America is putting pressure on the region to avoid complete chaos."
He stated that "investment companies refrain from entering Iraq because of the bad banking system, and the United States has demanded an internationally recognized banking system for its companies to invest in the country."
Saadallah pointed out, “An evaluation of any government takes place within a period of 3-6 months, and all political forces agree to support the current prime minister, and Iraq is affected by events in the region and Sudanese’s task is difficult.”
He added, "The fault is not with the Prime Minister, but with the forces that claim to support the Sudanese and create crises to hinder his work."
Saadallah concluded by saying, "There are still forces controlling Iraq and its internal policy, and we do not have the freedom to choose the decision 100%; but if the political forces strongly support the Prime Minister, all decisions will be implemented."
Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, received an official invitation from US President Joe Biden to visit the White House, after months of ongoing controversy inside Iraq, over Washington’s postponement of the visit, which was delayed “much” since Al-Sudani took office last October.
Erbil threatens Baghdad: Send more money, otherwise we will not remain silent!
The Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq held Baghdad responsible for the delay in sending funds allocated for employee salaries, noting that a government delegation from Erbil will visit Baghdad this week.
The Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq said, in a statement, that the salary allocations amounting to 700 billion dinars were supposed to be sent last week, but again, contrary to all statements in the meetings and agreements, the funds were delayed.
She added, "The delegation of the Kurdistan Regional Government will visit Baghdad this week and will hold a meeting with the federal government on Tuesday, to avoid the return of problems."
The statement continued: The Kurdistan Regional Government has demonstrated its clear intention to reach an agreement with the federal government. We have nothing left to do, but if the situation continues like this, we cannot remain silent.
Erbil renews the attack on Baghdad: We handed you the numbers and life is suspended in the region
Sabah Hassan, a member of the Finance Committee in the previous session of the Kurdistan Parliament, considered today, Sunday (October 29, 2023), that the salary crisis in the region came about as a result of political parties pressuring the federal government in Baghdad not to implement the political agreement.
Hassan said in an interview with "Baghdad Today" that "the regional government fulfilled all its obligations, revealed all the numbers requested by Baghdad, and cooperated positively with the committees that visited the capital."
He added, "Baghdad is responsible for procrastination, and the issue of salaries has disrupted life in the region," noting that "the Kurdistan government cannot bear the crisis because it no longer exports oil and therefore does not have sufficient liquidity to distribute employee salaries, which amount to 900 billion dinars."
He pointed out that "Baghdad is the main cause of the crisis, and there are political parties that are pressuring the government not to proceed with the agreement concluded between the federal government and the regional government."
The root of the dispute is that the region’s share is calculated from “actual spending” and not according to the numbers stated in the budget. Although the budget amounts to 199 trillion dinars, until the end of last July, the Iraqi state’s expenditures amounted to only 54 trillion dinars. This means that during 9 months It would have reached 69 trillion dinars, and if Kurdistan's share of 12.6% is calculated, then the region's share of actual spending would be exactly 8 trillion Iraqi dinars, which is the total of what the region has obtained so far out of more than 16 trillion dinars, which is its actual share of the budget.
The Sudanese financial advisor reveals the paths of partnership between the state and the private sector
Parliamentary Services: The Sudanese government has failed in the country’s economic file
Member of the Parliamentary Services Committee, Haider Al-Jubouri, confirmed today, Sunday, that the government of Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, has failed in managing the economic file, while he indicated its success in other files.
Al-Jubouri said, in an exclusive interview with Al-Mutala’ Agency, that “the government has greatly succeeded in providing services to citizens and in all governorates, and has thus achieved very high rates,” noting that “the past year of the government’s life has achieved a lot.”
He added, "On the economic level, the government did not succeed in doing so, especially since it launched the tripartite budget and included within it many reforms that we have not yet touched upon, especially with regard to associated gas and investing it correctly."
Parliament will resume its sessions early next year
Member of Parliament Jassem Al-Alawi revealed that the recess for the legislative term will begin in November, with sessions resuming early next year.
Al-Alawi told Al-Sabah: The House of Representatives will end the legislative term on November 9, noting that it will resume its sessions early next year, explaining that this holiday will be due to the House’s delay in ending its legislative term and holding elections in December 2024.
For his part, legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi stated that the Constitution was clear and explicit regarding the legislative recess of the House of Representatives in accordance with Article 57 of the Constitution, which stipulates, “The House of Representatives has an annual session with two legislative terms lasting 8 months. The bylaws determine how they are held, and the session in which the budget is presented does not end.” Only after approval.
He pointed out that this text is governing in determining the legislative term, duration, and recess, according to the text of Article 58: “The President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and 50 parliamentary members may call for extraordinary sessions that will be limited to the topics that required them to be called.”
Al-Tamimi pointed out that Parliament decides to convene and suspend work by voting in accordance with Article 59 of the Constitution, which affirms that “a quorum for the sessions of the House of Representatives is achieved in the presence of an absolute majority of members, and decisions are taken by a simple majority (half of the number of attendees plus one),” adding that the legislative recess is a discretionary matter for Parliament. There are about 170 laws that have not been enacted yet.
Parliament is suspended until after the provincial elections
Al-Alawi said in a press statement, “The House of Representatives will end the legislative term on November 9 and will resume its sessions early next year.”
He stated, "This holiday will be due to the Council's delay in ending its legislative term and holding local elections on December 18, 2024."
Easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil.. What does this have to do with Kurdistan region oil?
The United States recently eased Venezuelan oil sanctions after years of blockade, which opened the door for energy experts and specialized monitoring companies to provide their estimates about the effects of this easing on regional and global oil markets.
In this context, a detailed analytical report predicted a weak impact of the expected increase in oil productionVenezuelaOn global oil markets, after easing partial, temporary US sanctions for 6 months, subject to extension or cancellation.
The report, issued by the specialized company Energy Outlook Advisors , suggested that Venezuelan oil production would grow by no more than 200,000 barrels per day in the short term, and 400,000 barrels per day by the end of next summer of 2024, according to the Energy Research Unit.
Details of the politically conditional sanctions.
The easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions came within the framework of a political deal with the government of the current Venezuelan presidentNicolas Maduroleft-leaning party, to hold fair elections in which the American-leaning opposition participates in 2024
.Office of Foreign Assets Control, of the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC), 4 general authorizations to suspend certain sanctions imposed onVenezuelaAfter the success of the government and the opposition in signing the electoral road map agreement in 2024.
The duration of these licenses is 6 months, during which oil and gas transactions are allowed between the United States and...VenezuelaHowever, its renewal will remain dependent on the Madror government’s fulfillment of its political obligations towards the electoral road map, in addition to the release of detainees, according to a statement issued by the US Treasury Department on October 18, 2023. Some licenses allow dealing with the state oil company
inVenezuelaIt exports its oil to the United States, and also allows commercial dealings with the state-owned Venezuelan gold mining company, Minerven.
Some other licenses also provide for amending the secondary trading ban imposed on certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds, while remaining the ban on trading in the Venezuelan secondary bond market.
While some licenses stipulate amending the secondary trade ban imposed on dealing in the debt and shares of the Venezuelan state oil company, Petroleos DeVenezuelaSA (PdVSA).
Anticipation of the election schedule in November
. The US Treasury says that the goal of easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil and the trade in gold, bonds, and Venezuelan debt is to limit illegal activities in these sectors and prevent the ruling regime from benefiting from their revenues. These measures
can To succeed in limiting money flows to the government of President Maduro, but previous experiences indicate that theoretical sanctions on paper are usually applied differently in reality, and may not achieve their goals, and may even achieve opposite goals, directly or indirectly, as in the case of sanctions on... Russia, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
In any case, the Maduro government has until next November to set a final timetable for the elections expected in 2024, amid warnings from the US administration to reimpose some sanctions, if the government does not commit to setting The timetable is during the next month.
Despite these warnings and conditions in the decision to ease Venezuelan oil and other trade sanctions, the US administration may turn a blind eye to implementing some or all of them, due to its dire need to reach an agreement with the Maduro government at the present time, according to an analysis by Energy Outlook Advisors.
The easing was not related to events in the Middle East.
The move was to ease some of the sanctions imposed on...VenezuelaExpected since last year, it came as a result of long negotiations that have nothing to do with current events in the Middle East (Israeli attacks on Gaza).
The President's administration allowed itJoe BidenLast year, two European companies, the Italian Eni and the Spanish Repsol, exported Venezuelan oil to Europe, according to what was monitored by the Energy Research Unit.
As for the giant American company Chevron, it did not leaveVenezuelaDespite the Venezuelan oil sanctions imposed under former President Donald Trump, the company succeeded in obtaining exemptions from Trump as well as Biden.
The company obtained a license in November 2022 to produce Venezuelan oil and export it to the United States for a renewable period of 6 months.
*Dilution effect in the Venezuelan oil sector
needsVenezuelaThe company, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, relies on the expertise and technical capabilities enjoyed by international oil and service companies, which makes it in dire need of the expertise of companies such as Chevron and Schlumberger International Oilfield Services (SLB).
The Venezuelan oil sector also needs urgent foreign investment, after years of lack of investment, poor maintenance, and the flight of personnel and technical expertise to work abroad, which led to a sharp decline in its production of crude and condensates over the past two decades.
Venezuelan oil production has declined significantly over the past two decades, from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2000 to 735,000 barrels per day in September 2023.
Venezuelan Oil and Liquids Production
The Venezuelan oil industry is in dire need of some diluents known as natural gasoline, symbolized by ( C5), to be mixed with its heavy crude so that it can be transported or exported via pipelines and tankers.
It is expected that the easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions will facilitate the entry of diluents into the countryVenezuelaIn the short term, this will benefit US shale oil producers.
Energy Outlook Advisors estimates the volume of diluents that US producers can export toVenezuelaNot to exceed 125 thousand barrels per day in the short term, which is a relatively small amount that is expected to double depending on developments in sanctions and the political deal concluded with the Maduro government.
Some American refineries need heavy Venezuelan crude, especially refineries located on the American Gulf Coast, due to the nature of their superior technical capabilities suitable for refining and processing heavy types of oil.VenezuelaAnd other countries of the world.
If mitigating materials are availableVenezuelaIt can add 300 to 400 thousand barrels per day within weeks, then production will stabilize for several months until the results of new investments and the participation of major oil services companies begin, and their effects will be partially reflected in the increase in production, according to a previous report issued by Energy Outlook Advisors in 2022.
*Production booms take 3 years.
Increasing production in large quantities, reaching one million barrels per day, takes at least 3 years, based on a review of the experiences of 6 oil-producing countries that suffered from political instability and sanctions, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
The American company Chevron has succeeded in adding 200,000 barrels per day to the total Venezuelan oil production at the present time, and it is expected to increase by another 100,000 barrels only in the short term, and it is expected that most of these additions will go to export.
If the political deal concluded with the president goes wellNicolas MaduroThe election dates have been set for 2024, and the United States is expected to renew the licenses for another six months.
This extension will allow major oil services companies, such as the American Schlumberger SLB, to increase Venezuelan oil production by 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the summer of 2024, that is, immediately before the US presidential elections, most of which will likely be exported to America.
Venezuelan oil exports to the United States
and Energy Outlook Advisors doubts a full political solution will be reached in...VenezuelaThe American party is satisfied, but it believes that the Biden administration will turn a blind eye to any electoral violations or human rights violations in exchange for the continuation of the agreement.
Accordingly, Venezuelan oil production and exports will see significant increases even if the government does not meet the conditions set by the Biden administration and the US Treasury Department in the sanctions relief statement, issued on October 18, 2023. If the US-leaning Venezuelan opposition wins the elections, it may find itself
facing Strong internal opposition due to declared American support, and what may result in distorting its reputation and questioning the extent of its independence in running the country away from American tutelage, in addition to describing it as treason, because it came to power under very clear and frank American pressure.
The opposition will also face another crisis related to the lack of technical expertise and the flight of personnel from the state oil company after the late leftist president Hugo Chavir expelled many of them during the period from 2002 to 2003, which forced a large number of experts and engineers to leave.VenezuelaTo work in Colombia and the Middle East.
What is the relationship with Kurdistan oil?
Based on these factors, Energy Outlook Advisors does not expect a rapid boom in Venezuelan oil production in the medium or long term, but increases will remain limited and slow.
The company also expects a limited impact of any potential production increases on global oil markets and prices, due to the expected increase in global demand during the next few years, which makes any increase in productionVenezuelaLimited and narrow impact.
But on the other hand, increasing heavy oil production in...VenezuelaTo alleviate the tightness of the global medium sour oil market, especially if exports from the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq remain outside the market, according to the analysis.
At the local level, the Venezuelan government’s revenues from oil exports are expected to recover, and this may stimulate the exhausted economy and lead to an increase in domestic oil consumption in the coming years, and may push the government to direct most of the productivity increases to domestic consumption instead of international markets.
Canadian oil is the first victim
Canadian oil appears to be the first victim affected by the easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil, amid expectations of an increase in US oil imports.VenezuelaAt the expense of neighboring Canadian oil.
It is expected that the price differences between American and Canadian oil crudes will increase with the increase in US imports of Venezuelan oil, but these risks could subside once a pipeline is operational.Trans MountainWhich is strongly supported by the Canadian government.
Some American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico region fear that they will be negatively affected if Canada begins exporting its oil through a pipeline.Trans Mountain, amid expectations that this will lead to a decrease in the volumes of Canadian oil exports to America and an increase in its prices, according to an Energy Outlook analysis.
Based on this, these refineries see imports from...VenezuelaIt became a necessity as Canada rushed to build the line and wanted to get it up and running as quickly as possible.
Canada's ambitions to diversify its crude oil exports to countries other than the United States appear to be limited by the extent of its ability to increase production from the main province of Alberta, the prices of crude oil in Asia, the extent of its ability to compete with discounted Russian and Iranian crude oils to Asia, and the prices of Saudi Aramco.
Based on this, Energy Outlook Advisors expects Canadian oil exports to the United States to be affected by the thaw in US-Venezuelan relations and the increase in Venezuelan production, and the subsequent increase in exports to America.
It should be noted thatVenezuelaCrude oil was exported to several countries other than the United States, most notably neighboring Cuba, Spain, China and other countries, and was often accused of exporting through back doors, such as Iran and Russia. Source:
