Despite the rise in the dollar, Saleh: The parallel market today is not important
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed the stability of the dollar exchange rate against the dinar, despite its significant rise today, reaching 1,500 dinars.
The video for this blogpost is below here:
Saleh told Al Furat News Agency, "The fixed exchange rate system in Iraq is based on the highest international reserves in the history of Iraq and its monetary policy, as foreign currency covers more than 100% of the total currency currently issued."
He added, "In light of the strength of the official central exchange market, the exchange rate of the dollar to the dinar in the parallel market today in our country does not constitute any relative importance in influencing the stability of the general price level, which has become stable in its components and trends due to the influence of the official exchange rate factor currently dominating the financing of foreign trade (imports), amounting to 1320 dinars per dollar."
He pointed out that "it is a stable trend for the exchange rate and the stable external value of the dinar revolves around it, which is embodied by the state of stability in the relative prices of goods and services to a large extent, as annual inflation in our country does not exceed 3%."
Saleh continued, "Based on the above, and in light of the strength of the foreign reserves supporting the Iraqi dinar, the value of which as liquid foreign assets exceeds $100 billion, the official exchange market, as a general trend, will remain dominant in containing any colored noise or ambiguous information that affects the parallel exchange market in short periods due to urgent international or regional political events here and there or in adapting some instructions regulating the monetary market. Stressing that after the decline of the dollarization phenomenon in internal transactions, especially in contracts, obligations and payments within the country since last year and its legal prohibition."
He stressed that "the parallel exchange market has become such that its general effects today only form a narrow economic scope of prohibited transactions practiced by informal markets and at a rate of 10% of the total supply and demand transactions for the currency."
He stressed that "the stability of the exchange rate of the dinar to the dollar that the country is witnessing even in the secondary markets above is a real and solid stability, and is derived from the strength of the impact of the price and quantity factors of the monetary and financial policies and their integration in imposing overall price stability in the country and containing inflationary expectations that were caused by the parallel exchange market forces during the past years."
He noted that "the irregular secondary market, due to the freedom of external transfer, is affected by the official exchange market rate, whose operations are constantly expanding in favor of dealing with the fixed official exchange rate."
Parliamentary Finance reveals reasons for the rise in the dollar price
The Parliamentary Finance Committee revealed, on Wednesday, the reasons for the rise in the dollar exchange rate in local markets during the past days.
Committee member Moeen Al-Kazemi said in a statement followed by / Today's News / that "the recent rise in the dollar exchange rate to 150 thousand dinars for every 100 dollars has reasons, the most important of which is the Central Bank's announcement to stop financing travelers in hard currency through exchange offices and limiting granting an amount of 3,000 or 5,000 dollars through airports."
He added, "There is another reason for the rise in the exchange rate on the black market, which is the US Federal Bank's suspension of financial transfers in Chinese yuan that were in effect during the previous period," indicating that "the Federal Reserve argued that these transfers to China are not legal."
He pointed out that "in the previous period, there were approximately 40 million dollars in cash daily sold in the markets through the Central Bank and through exchange offices, so the dollar is available in the markets, but now there is a shortage of dollars on the black market, so it rose to this number."
He explained that "the Central Bank provides from 200 to 250 million dollars daily at a rate of 1332 dinars per dollar to traders under the title of transfers to companies and various countries, so imports, goods and commodities will remain supported through the price decided by the Council of Ministers, and this will create a state of stability currently present in the markets."
Baghdad dollar was influenced by China! The market tried to absorb the shock and fell below 150 on Thursday evening
The US dollar exchange rate ended its week against the Iraqi dinar on Thursday evening with a slight decline after the continuous rise during the past two days, as it did not break the barrier of 150 thousand dinars for each $100 note, due to traders’ reluctance to buy large quantities at this price, which led to a decline in prices to levels of 149, as the last price offered on the Al-Kifah Stock Exchange, .this afternoon, reached 149 thousand dinars for each $100 note
In addition to the possibility of a war breaking out in Lebanon, money exchange workers attribute the rise in the dollar price to the Central Bank’s decision to limit the sale of dollars to travelers at airports and by employees of government banks that are allocated a share of the dollar, in addition to stopping transfers to China and requesting their return under certain conditions related to monitoring, auditing and changing correspondent banks, in addition to the continuation of trade with some countries that were previously sanctioned, as these countries do not have a banking system and settlements with them are made in cash .dollars, which keeps demand for it high in the local market
However, expectations of the dollar continuing to rise are colliding, according to those working in the exchange sector, with traders’ reluctance to buy it at high prices, which suggests the possibility of prices falling after the implementation of the Central Bank’s decision regarding the travelers’ dollar on the fourteenth of this month, as the market will absorb the shock and return prices to lower levels, in their opinion. Therefore, the rise will be temporary and the decline may begin at the beginning of next week if other economic, security and geopolitical data do .not change
The secret of the fluctuation of the dollar price in local markets
Economic expert, Salah Nouri, revealed the secret behind the fluctuation of the dollar price in local markets.
Nouri told {Euphrates News} that: "The difference between the official price and the parallel market is still the same due to trade with countries."
He explained that "many traders whose trade is with neighboring countries {Turkey, Iran, Syria, Jordan} import through cash payment and not through the transfer system through the banking system."
Nouri confirmed that "traders obtain the dollar from the parallel market."
The dollar prices recorded, on Wednesday, with the closing of the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges, 149,000 dinars for $100, while the prices had recorded 148,500 dinars this morning.
The selling prices in exchange shops in local markets in Baghdad yesterday, Tuesday, reached 149,250 dinars for $100, while the purchase price reached 147,250 dinars for $100.
Urgent | Economist warns: We are approaching the moment of the dinar’s collapse against the dollar
Economic expert Ziad Al-Hashemi warned, today, Thursday, of the collapse of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in light of the existence of factors of increase.
Al-Hashemi said in a tweet on the (x) platform, which was followed by “Iraq Observer”, that “(the dollar exchange rate) is on the verge of 1,500 dinars and is likely to rise further, after the US Federal Reserve banned Iraqi transfers in Chinese yuan, due to suspicions of smuggling, money laundering and financial fraud.”
He added: "It is expected that this ban will cause an increase in demand for cash dollars in parallel markets, which may push the Central Bank of Iraq to return to implementing more stringent measures that will increase the state of anxiety and unrest in the markets."
Al-Hashemi continued: “This week, we witnessed the cessation of the sale of dollars to travelers through approved exchange companies and limiting this to sales outlets inside the airport only. This is a measure that will cause more rapid demand for dollars from the parallel market, especially with the start of the travel season.”
He added: “As I mentioned in previous attached tweets, the Central Bank of Iraq has not been able, after more than 18 months of the exchange rate crisis, to dismantle and solve the exchange rate problem, as the factors of rising exchange rates are still effective and influential.”
He pointed out that "what happened in the past period is merely a postponement of the moment of the dinar's collapse against the dollar, by anesthetizing the markets with an imaginary stability as a result of a massive sale of the dollar that could decline sharply with any decision by the Federal Reserve that turns the tables on the central bank's measures, and this is what happened today."
Government comments on the return of the dollar price rise
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, revealed the reason for the continued rise in the dollar exchange rate in local markets, while stressing that this rise is short-term and does not constitute any relative importance in affecting the stability of the general price level.
Saleh said in a press interview, "Despite the fluctuations in the parallel or irregular exchange market, whose short-term fluctuations are the result of noise from colored or confusing information originating from international or regional circumstances, or the issuance of some regulatory instructions adapted to foreign currency, which some speculators are trying to exploit to generate a trend of fateful profits in the exchange market, it can be said that the fixed exchange rate system in Iraq is still based on a strong foundation consisting of the country's international reserves." Noting that "it is the highest in Iraq's history through the management of its foreign reserves, resulting from a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments at a significant rate that may reach (positive 7% of the country's gross domestic product)." He indicated that "foreign currency covers a percentage of more than 130% of the total currency currently in circulation."
Saleh added, "In light of the strength of the official central exchange rate and its role in financing nearly 90% of the private sector's foreign transfer transactions, excluding the government sector, the dollar-to-dinar exchange rate in the parallel market does not constitute any relative importance in its fluctuations in influencing the stability of the general price level, which has become static in its components and trends due to the influence of the official exchange rate factor currently dominating the financing of foreign trade (imports), amounting to 1320 dinars per dollar." He stressed that "this lack of influence is embodied in the state of stability of the relative prices of goods and services to a large extent, as the average annual inflation in our country does not exceed 3%."
He continued, "Based on the above, and in light of the strength of the foreign reserves supporting the Iraqi dinar, the value of which as liquid foreign assets exceeds $100 billion, the official exchange market, as a general trend, will remain dominant in containing any colored noise or ambiguous information that affects the parallel exchange market in short periods, due to urgent international or regional political events here and there, or in adapting some of the instructions regulating the monetary market, as we noted above."
He added, "After the decline of the dollarization phenomenon in domestic transactions, especially in contracts, obligations and payments within the country since last year and its legal prohibition, the parallel exchange market has become such that its general effects today only form a narrow economic scope of prohibited transactions practiced by informal markets, and at a rate of 10% of the total supply and demand transactions for the currency."
He stressed that "the stability of the dinar to dollar exchange rate that the country is witnessing even in the secondary markets above is a real and solid stability, and is derived from the strength of the impact of the price and quantity factors of the monetary and financial policies and their integration in imposing overall price stability in the country, and containing inflationary expectations that were caused by the parallel exchange market forces during the past years." He added in his speech that "the irregular secondary market, due to the freedom of external transfer, falls under the influence of the official exchange market rate, whose operations are constantly expanding in favor of dealing with the fixed official exchange rate."
The dollar price recorded a rise on Wednesday, with the closing of the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges, reaching 149,000 dinars for every 100 dollars, while the price recorded 148,500 dinars this morning.
The regional government welcomes the Federal Court’s decision regarding the freedom to localize salaries in banks
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The most prominent of which is the decision of the Central Bank.. Three reasons behind the rise of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar
Financial expert and former director of the Central Bank, Mahmoud Dagher, revealed on Thursday three reasons that led to the recent rise of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar.
Dagher told Shafaq News Agency, "There are several reasons behind the rise of the dollar against the dinar, but the most important is the decision of the Central Bank of Iraq to sell cash dollars to travelers inside the airport."
He pointed out that "the second reason is the suspension of foreign currency transfers via the dollar, which are scheduled to resume, especially to China, but with strictness and follow-up by an international auditing company and with senders and banks that conduct transfers that are different from before."
The financial expert continued by saying that the third reason is, “As long as there is insistence on trade with Iran and Syria - two countries that do not have a banking system with the world - then obtaining dollars has become more difficult for them.”
This week, the dollar rose against the Iraqi dinar, with the 100 US dollar denomination reaching nearly 150,000 dinars.
Last Monday, the Central Bank of Iraq issued new instructions regarding granting US dollars to travelers, indicating that these instructions will come into effect starting from July 14.
According to the bank’s statement, which was addressed to Rafidain, Rashid, and Iraqi Trade Banks, exchange companies currently operating at airports, and exchange companies of category A and B, “in order to ensure that travelers receive cash dollars and to prevent exchange companies from passing improper transactions, it was decided to set 7/14/2024 as the final date for starting the mechanism of granting dollars to travelers at airports exclusively.”
According to the Central Bank, the aforementioned banks and exchange companies operating at the airport are entitled to a fixed commission of (15,000) dinars from the customer for each transaction, and the exchange companies outside the airport collect it for the benefit of the companies and banks operating at the airport, according to a mechanism determined between the two parties, the banks and companies operating at the airport and the exchange companies outside the airport.
The Central Bank directs exchange companies to proceed with the mechanism of granting dollars to travelers at airports (document)
The Central Bank of Iraq directed, on Thursday, exchange companies to proceed with the instructions to launch the new mechanism for delivering dollars at airports.
This came in a letter addressed by the bank’s management in an official letter issued on the fourth of July and signed by the Director of Supervision of Non-Banking Financial Institutions, Rafeef Mu’ayyad Bashir, to four exchange companies that provide dollars to travelers at Iraqi airports.
Last Monday, the Central Bank of Iraq issued new instructions regarding granting US dollars to travelers, indicating that these instructions will come into effect starting from July 14.
According to the bank’s statement, which was addressed to Rafidain, Rashid, and Iraqi Trade Banks, exchange companies currently operating at airports, and exchange companies of category A and B, “in order to ensure that travelers receive cash dollars and to prevent exchange companies from passing improper transactions, it was decided to set 7/14/2024 as the final date for starting the mechanism of granting dollars to travelers at airports exclusively.”
According to the Central Bank, the aforementioned banks and exchange companies operating at the airport are entitled to a fixed commission of (15,000) dinars from the customer for each transaction, and the exchange companies outside the airport collect it on behalf of the companies and banks operating at the airport, according to a mechanism determined between the two parties, the banks and companies operating at the airport and the exchange companies outside the airport.
Al-Sudani: Iraq is witnessing the highest growth rate in the region
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani confirmed today, Thursday, that Iraq is witnessing the highest growth rate in the region.
The Prime Minister's media office stated in a statement received by "Al-Eqtisad News" that Al-Sudani "sponsored today, Thursday, the annual celebration of the National Job Day, which was held at the government palace in the capital, Baghdad, where 50 distinguished employees in various fields were honored, who were chosen by specialized committees; for their excellence in job performance."
Al-Sudani praised the "distinguished employees who worked hard and deserved distinction. This selection of male and female employees proves the strength of the Iraqi and the principles, confidence and positive energy he carries," stressing that "the martyr who sacrificed himself for Iraq and the Iraqis remains the first distinguished one."
He added, "We commend the initiative to honor distinguished employees, and appreciate the efforts of the relevant committee and everyone who contributed to this initiative, which confirms the ability of employees in the public sector, and negates the negative image of them, as it highlights the loyal, competent, productive and honest employee," noting that "there are other numbers of distinguished employees who perform their duties with dedication and high efficiency."
He pointed out that "the stories of distinguished employees are worthy of consideration and enhance confidence in government employees, especially since some of them were able to transform the difficult circumstances and challenges they are experiencing into success, distinction and dedication in the public service they provide to citizens," indicating that "one of the people of determination achieved excellence over his colleagues in programming, as well as the insightful student in Shatra who excelled and overcame her health conditions, which is a case of creativity that we have the right to be proud of."
During the ceremony, Al-Sudani addressed the "pivotal and essential role of the public sector in building the country, and its undertaking of implementing the government's program and priorities, in addition to its importance in improving the country's situation in all fields, as Iraq is witnessing the highest growth rate in the region, and the government sector must perform its duties in this regard."
He stressed that "the government has, in less than two years, made significant progress in working and addressing challenges in all areas, as our country possesses natural and human resources, some of which have not been invested to this day."
"Short-term".. Al-Sudani's advisor explains the reasons for the continued rise in the exchange rate
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, revealed the reason for the continued rise in the dollar exchange rate in local markets, while stressing that this rise is short-term and does not constitute any relative importance in affecting the stability of the general price level.
Saleh said in an interview followed by "Al-Eqtisad News", "Despite the fluctuations in the parallel or irregular exchange market, whose short-term fluctuations are the result of noise from colored or confusing information originating from international or regional circumstances, or the issuance of some regulatory instructions adapted to foreign currency, which some speculators are trying to exploit to generate a trend of fateful profits in the exchange market, it can be said that the fixed exchange rate system in Iraq is still based on a strong foundation consisting of the country's international reserves." Noting that "it is the highest in Iraq's history through the management of its foreign reserves, resulting from a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments at a significant rate that may reach (positive 7% of the country's gross domestic product)." He indicated that "foreign currency covers a percentage of more than 130% of the total currency currently issued into circulation."
Saleh added, "In light of the strength of the official central exchange rate and its role in financing nearly 90% of the private sector's foreign transfer transactions, excluding the government sector, the dollar-to-dinar exchange rate in the parallel market does not constitute any relative importance in its fluctuations in influencing the stability of the general price level, which has become static in its components and trends due to the influence of the official exchange rate factor currently dominating the financing of foreign trade (imports), amounting to 1320 dinars per dollar." He stressed that "this lack of influence is embodied in the state of stability of the relative prices of goods and services to a large extent, as the average annual inflation in our country does not exceed 3%."
He continued, "Based on the above, and in light of the strength of the foreign reserves supporting the Iraqi dinar, the value of which as liquid foreign assets exceeds $100 billion, the official exchange market, as a general trend, will remain dominant in containing any colored noise or ambiguous information that affects the parallel exchange market in short periods, due to urgent international or regional political events here and there, or in adapting some of the instructions regulating the monetary market, as we noted above."
He added, "After the decline of the dollarization phenomenon in domestic transactions, especially in contracts, obligations and payments within the country since last year and its legal prohibition, the parallel exchange market has become such that its general effects today only form a narrow economic scope of prohibited transactions practiced by informal markets, and at a rate of 10% of the total supply and demand transactions for the currency."
He stressed that "the stability of the dinar to dollar exchange rate that the country is witnessing even in the secondary markets above is a real and solid stability, and is derived from the strength of the impact of the price and quantity factors of the monetary and financial policies and their integration in imposing overall price stability in the country, and containing inflationary expectations that were caused by the parallel exchange market forces during the past years." He added in his speech that "the irregular secondary market, due to the freedom of external transfer, falls under the influence of the official exchange market rate, whose operations are constantly expanding in favor of dealing with the fixed official exchange rate."
Securities Commission: The government has successfully completed the sale of financial bonds
The Securities Commission confirmed on Wednesday that the government had successfully completed the sale of financial bonds, while indicating that many foreign investors had purchased those bonds.
The head of the authority, Faisal Al-Haimus, said: “The government has successfully completed the sale of financial bonds,” indicating that “all financial bonds that were sold were subscribed to, and this reflects the strength and stability of the State of Iraq.”
He pointed out that "there are many foreign investors who bought financial bonds, and this reflects the stability of the Iraqi state."
Government bonds are a type of debt-based investment where you lend money to a government in exchange for an agreed-upon interest rate. Governments use them to raise money that can be spent on infrastructure or new projects, and investors can use them to earn set returns that are paid at regular intervals.
Parliamentary Committee to Al-Eqtisad News: The Oil and Gas Law is Almost Complete, and This is What We Hope for from Barzani’s Visit to Baghdad
Member of the Parliamentary Oil and Gas Committee, Zainab Al-Moussawi, revealed today, Thursday, the latest developments in the Oil and Gas Law, while pointing to the impact of Masoud Barzani’s visit to Baghdad on the approval of the law.
Al-Moussawi said in an interview with Al-Eqtisad News: “So far, the draft oil and gas law is almost complete, with a high percentage that may reach 90%, but there are some objections from the Kurds regarding some points, which are summarized in handing over oil imports and exploited and unexploited natural resources to Baghdad, as Erbil refuses to do so.”
She added: "We hope that Masoud Barzani's visit will be the beginning of resolving the crisis of the law and its legislation after an agreement with the political foundations in Baghdad, which is the Coordination Framework, as all political blocs are moving towards legislating the oil and gas law that regulates the country's natural resources."
The member of the Parliamentary Oil Committee explained that "the Oil and Gas Law contributes to exploiting the largest possible amount of undiscovered oil fields and also contributes to achieving self-sufficiency in petroleum derivatives and optimal exploitation of wasted natural resources estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars that contribute to diversifying the state's financial resources."
Barzani's Schedule
Wed
The arrival of security, protection, protocol and medical staff by military aircraft (C130) to Baghdad International Airport. The arrival of the region's delegation, headed by His Excellency President Masoud Barzani, and they were received by a high-ranking figure in the Iraqi government
1
Heading from Baghdad International Airport to the guest house
Meeting with His Excellency the Prime Minister, Mr. Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani
A working luncheon with the State Administration Alliance at the same place.
A meeting with His Excellency Judge Fayek Zaidan
A meeting with the Ambassador of the United States of America, Mrs. Elena Romanski (30 facts)
Meeting with the Ambassador of the Republic of China, Mr. Cui Wei (20 minutes)
Meeting with the Ambassador of France, Mr. Patrick Durel (20 minutes)
Meeting with the Ambassador of Russia, Mr. Elbrus Kutrasev (20 minutes)
Meeting with the British Ambassador, Mr. Stephen Heitgen (30 minutes)
Going from the guest house to visit His Eminence Mr. Ammar al-Hakim, head of the Wisdom Movement, where he will have a working dinner and a meeting with the leaders of the coordination framework.
Meeting with Mr. Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, Acting Speaker of the House of Representatives (Cabinet Guest House)
09:00
Meeting with the Governor of Basra, Mr. Asaad Al-Eidani (Council of Ministers Guest House).
09:30
Meeting with the ambassadors of Arab countries in Iraq (the Ambassador of Kuwait, Mr. Tariq Abdullah, the Ambassador of Qatar, Mr. Sultan Mubarak Al-Kubaisi.
10 o'clock
And the Ambassador of the Republic of Egypt, Mr. Walid Muhammad Ismail.
Go to the house of Sheikh Khamis Al-Khanjar, head of the Sovereignty Alliance, where he will have a working lunch with Sunni leaders.
12:20
Meeting with the Iranian Ambassador, Mr. Muhammad Kazem Al-Sadiq (20 minutes)
16:00
Meeting with the Turkish Ambassador Anil Bora Inan (20 minutes)
16:20
Meeting Mr. Muhammad Al-Halbousi (40 facts)
16:40
A working dinner and meeting with His Excellency the President of the Republic of Iraq, Mr. Latif Rashid, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr. Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, and the heads of
19:00
Some parties in the presidential palace
Head to Baghdad International Airport.
21:00
Head to Erbil International Airport
21:30
The delegation's plane landed at Erbil International Airport, and the second plane took off from Baghdad International Airport to Erbil International Airport.
22-30
Iraq suspends official work next Sunday on the occasion of the Islamic New Year
The Iraqi government decided, on Thursday, to suspend official work for one day early next week on the occasion of the Islamic New Year.
A statement by the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers, received by Shafaq News Agency, stated that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, during the twenty-seventh regular session of the Council of Ministers, held last Tuesday, directed the suspension of official work on Sunday, corresponding to the seventh of July, in all ministries and government institutions.
He explained that this coincides with the first day of Muharram, the Islamic New Year, based on the provisions of Article (1/First/B) of the Official Holidays Law (12 of 2024).
Al-Sudani: Our country has natural and human resources and assets, some of which have not been invested to this day.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani confirmed, today, Thursday, that Iraq has the highest growth rate in the region, while pointing out the necessity for the government sector to perform its duties.
The Prime Minister's Media Office said in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), "Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani sponsored, today, Thursday, the annual celebration of the National Job Day, which was held at the government palace in the capital, Baghdad, where 50 distinguished employees in various fields were honored, who were chosen by specialized committees; For their excellence in job performance."
Al-Sudani praised “the distinguished employees who worked hard and deserved distinction,” stressing that “this selection of male and female employees proves the strength of the Iraqi and the principles, confidence, and positive energy he carries.”
He added, "The martyr who sacrificed himself for Iraq and the Iraqis remains the first distinguished person," praising "the initiative to honor distinguished employees."
He appreciated “the efforts of the concerned committee and everyone who contributed to this initiative, which confirms the ability of employees in the public sector and negates the negative image of them, as it highlights the loyal, efficient, productive and honest employee,” noting “the presence of other numbers of distinguished employees who perform their duties with dedication and high efficiency.”
The Prime Minister referred to “the stories of distinguished employees that are worthy of consideration and enhance confidence in government employees, especially since some of them were able to transform the difficult circumstances and challenges they are experiencing into success, distinction and dedication in the public service they provide to citizens,” indicating that “one of the people of determination achieved excellence over his colleagues in programming, as well as the insightful student in Shatra who excelled and overcame her health conditions, which is a case of creativity that we have the right to be proud of.”
He touched on “the pivotal and essential role of the public sector in building the country, and its implementation of the government’s program and priorities, in addition to its importance in improving the country’s reality in all areas, as Iraq is witnessing the highest growth rate in the region, and the government sector must perform its duties in this regard,” stressing that “the government has made significant progress in less than two years in working and addressing challenges in all areas, as our country possesses natural and human resources, capabilities, and resources, some of which have not been invested to this day.”
Iraq is “crowded” with all kinds of holidays: Businesses are halted and employees “are not compensated” for
official working hours
Hardly a week goes by in Iraq without one of its days being a holiday, paralyzing Iraqis and making some of them “happy” and others “grumpy,” especially with the cessation of work in official departments.
According to the reading of specialists and researchers, Iraq is the country that witnesses the most disruption in official working hours. If the federal government does not declare a holiday, it authorizes the governorates and districts to make the day they want an official holiday.
The official holidays in Iraq for the year 2024 are as follows:
January 1, New Year's Day
January 6, Iraqi Army Day
April 10th for three days, Eid al-Fitr
May 1, Labor Day
June 16-20, Eid al-Adha
June 26, Eid al-Ghadir
According to expectations, the Islamic New Year will fall on July 7.
July 14, Revolution 14 (public holiday)
According to expectations, July 16 will be the tenth of Muharram (an official holiday), and the birth of the Prophet Muhammad will be on September 15.
October 3, Iraqi National Day
December 10, Iraqi Victory Day.
All of these holidays are official, and are specified by an official law voted on by Parliament on May 22, 2024, for Iraqis to enjoy, excluding the weekend, which is designated as (Friday and Saturday).
Earlier, economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi said:
*Year = 48 weeks
*Total official holidays per year (Friday and Saturday) = 96 days
*Total official occasions in the year = 22 days
*Total number of official holidays per year = 118 days.
According to Al-Marshoumi, these holidays “are added to religious occasions and emergency holidays such as rain and high temperatures announced by the central government and local governments, which are estimated at about 22 days a year, the highest in the world, while there are 8 official holidays in England and Wales, which is considered one of the fewest number of holidays in the world.”
He continued: “The total number of official and unofficial holidays is 140 days, and the total number of annual working days is 225 days,” noting that “the total number of employees’ salaries, including self-financing and contracts, is 70 trillion dinars.”
Al-Marsoumi pointed out that “the average daily salary is 192 billion dinars, which represents the daily loss from the disruption of work, while the total financial losses from unofficial holidays, except for Friday and Saturday, may amount to 4.224 trillion dinars, and the total financial losses from official and unofficial holidays, except for Friday and Saturday, amount to 8.448 trillion dinars.”
Most Iraqi cities and districts contain shrines for the masters and infallibles, and if the anniversary of one of their martyrdoms falls, the governorate declares an official holiday that includes all its departments, or it is designated in a specific district or district, as happened with the Babylon Governorate Council.
The council said in a statement today, Wednesday, that it had “voted to suspend official work in Al-Hamza Al-Gharbi only for tomorrow, Thursday, on the occasion of the martyrdom of the grandson of Al-Abbas, peace be upon him.”
Unlike Al-Marsoumi, economic expert Dhurgham Muhammad Ali does not see any losses incurred by Iraq due to official holidays, while he pointed out the existence of “benefits.”
Ali said in an interview with “Eshan”: “Official holidays in Iraq do not constitute major losses for government departments because most government departments are service-oriented, not productive.”
He explained that “the increase in official holidays leads to a reduction in electricity consumption, traffic congestion and fuel. On the other hand, there are no major economic losses resulting from the holiday because the departments are only service departments, and most of the departments that are in contact with citizens’ lives, such as health, emergency services and others, continue their work.”
He pointed out that "the economic losses come only from the fact that the number of working hours for employees is less for the same salaries, and this is not considered a direct loss."
Experts predict increased involvement of Iraqi Resistance in regional conflict
There are expectations of increased involvement of factions within the "Iraqi Resistance" framework in the ongoing regional conflict in the near future, according to the Media Line. This development has been criticized, with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani being accused of "serving at their pleasure."
The report started with an overview of the Iraqi "militias," saying that they "have been growing exponentially and currently pose the biggest threat to Iraq's stability since they call the shots."
On June 17, the US State Department declared the Iraq-based militia Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (HAAA) and its secretary general, Haydar Muzhir Ma'lak al-Sa'idi, as Designated Global Terrorists.
"HAAA is an Iraq-based Iran-backed militia group, which is part of the 'Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI)'— a front group that includes multiple Iran-aligned terrorist and militia groups, including U.S.-designated terrorist organizations Kata'ib Hizballah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada. These groups have repeatedly attacked the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria," stated Matthew Miller, US State Department spokesperson.
According to Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and co-founder of the Militia Spotlight platform, "This decision of declaring HAAA as a global terrorist organization could be connected to two main options: the first could be that the US is formally putting HAAA in the list to strike them more in the future, by saying that they are targeting a terrorist group."
"The second option could be that the US has recently learned something else about the group and is taking this step to prevent them from posing a serious threat not only to the US personnel in Iraq and Syria but to the overall region. This statement aims at showing that America is doing something, but sanctions remain ineffective," he explained to The Media Line.
According to the Website, after the 2003 American invasion of Iraq, which caused a regime change and internal chaos, the country faced another big hit in 2011 when US troops withdrew, and Iran managed to take over amid the political vacuum. "From 2011, Iran gained overall control of the state in every sector through its proxies. It gained the ability to alter the relations between Iraq and international actors; the militias took control of entire areas, especially of the oil sector, and new economic agreements have been ongoing with China as well," Knights stated.
Iraq has faced the threat of ISIS in the past. However, after the terrorist group's major defeat against the Global Coalition between 2014-2017, it lost 95% of its territory and has no longer been a huge threat. In fact, Mosul is coming back to life after ten years of ISIS occupation.
"Meanwhile, Iraqi militias have been growing exponentially and currently pose the biggest threat to Iraq's stability since they call the shots, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani seems to serve at their pleasure." The Media Line reported.
"These militias dominate the Iraqi government since they are the key elements of the current coalition. The prime minister is playing a dangerous game by trying to be involved with the militias and reaching agreements with both the US and Saudi Arabia," Meir Litvak, senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line.
Litvak further explained that the US has lost its strategic power in Iraq compared to the past but still maintains a key role in monitoring ISIS. According to Litvak, in the case of US withdrawal, ISIS may gain back its power in the long run since the Iraqi government alone won't be able to challenge them.
"The American presence is unpopular in Iraqi streets, but many Iraqi politicians know that without an American and international presence within the country, these groups will gain back power and will bring the region into chaos," asserted Raphael Cohen, director of RAND Project AIR FORCE's Strategy and Doctrine Program, speaking to The Media Line.
Cohen also mentioned that Iraq doesn't fully trust the Shia militias, such as Iran's proxies like Hizbullah and the Houthis.
"The Iraqi militias get less media attention, but they pose an equal threat. Iran trusts Hizbullah, which is its most powerful and resilient proxy, and, secondly, the Houthis, which were not that known before October 7 but have gained popularity since then due to their attacks against international ships. These two are a 'good investment' economically speaking for Iran, compared to the various militias in Iraq, which are perceived as too disunited and chaotic," Cohen said.
Knights explained that the US has been less active in dismantling Iran's terrorist network because of the geopolitical crisis involving the wars in both Gaza and Ukraine, plus the uncertainty related to the results of the upcoming US presidential election.
"We only act when it gets really bad. We play catch-up, essentially. I think that after the elections, both [Donald] Trump and [Joe] Biden will try to consider more their involvement in the Middle East given Iran's hegemonic role," he added.
"The past nine months have been challenging for the region amid the ongoing war in Gaza, the Israel-Iran escalation, and the increasingly tense situation between Israel and Hizbullah. Iraqi militias may become more involved in the conflict against Israel as well." The Media Line explained.
"These militias are trying to destabilize Jordan and plan to launch rockets towards Israel from the Jordanian border. They declared this openly. This is why Jordan helped Israel during the major attack that Iran carried out," Litzak said.
"They [the Iraqi militias] are going to become more involved in the case of an escalation between Hizbullah and Israel. They will launch rockets coordinated with the Houthis as well, and this will worsen the regional situation even more," Cohen added.
"[The Islamic Resistance in Iran] IRI declared to have launched joint drone attacks with the Houthis against the Haifa Port on June 6, and the same was declared on June 12, stating that a missile strike was directed towards Ashdod and a drone attack against Haifa. In case of a bigger escalation, we will see more action coming from these militias, and Israel will find itself facing multiple threats," Knights concluded.
Disclaimer: The views presented by the author do not necessarily reflect the official standpoint of Shafaq News Agency.
“An Unfolding Structural Economic Transformation” Ahmed Tabaqchali,
“An Unfolding Structural Economic Transformation” Ahmed Tabaqchali, July 3 rd , 2024 The equity market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), was down 1.7% in June and up 12.5% for the year. The market’s decline for the month is a continuation of the profit-taking seen after hitting a multi-year high in late April 2024; while there is the potential for continued profit-taking bouts especially with the onset of the slow summer months, these should take place within the market’s current multi-month uptrend in the same way that they did over these months (chart below).
Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index
The latest annual data from the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) on the adoption of banking support the assertion –made here most recently in “What Next After a Gangbuster Year ???”– that significant fundamental developments are underway that promise to accelerate the adoption of banking and bring about a transformation of the sector and its role in the economy. The first evidence of these fundamental developments were seen in the acceleration in the growth in net profit and equity values for the country’s top banks –four of which are among the RSISX USD Index’s major constituents– which translated into a stellar 2023 for these banks as reviewed in “Banks end the Year with a Bang”. The CBI’s data* show that this acceleration in banking adoption was accompanied by significant increases in 2023 over 2022 in the number of bank account openings; issuance of bank cards (pre-paid, debit and credit) and e-wallets; and installations of point-of-sale terminals (POSs) and automated teller machines (ATMs). Specifically, in 2023 the total number of bank accounts, bank cards, and e-wallets increased year-over-year by 51.1%, 21.9%, and 67.7% respectively (chart below). These increases build upon the year-over-year growth that started in 2018, as the banking sector’s recovery got under-way following the twin crisis of the ISIS conflict and the fall in oil prices in 2014-2017 that devasted the sector as discussed in “Private Sector Deposit & Loan Growth Continues”.
Number of Bank Accounts, Bank Cards, and E-wallets 2017-2023
The increase in the number of bank accounts, bank cards, e-wallets, ATMs, and POSs in 2023 spurred significant growth, year-over-year and month-over-month, in the monthly values of Iraqi Dinar (IQD) transactions through cards and e-wallets (chart below). These build upon the trends that started in 2018, then boosted by the changes in consumer behaviours for the preference of cashless transactions following the onset of COVID-19 as happened elsewhere in the world.
The significance of the increases in the numbers of bank accounts, bank cards, and e-wallets lies in their performing banking transactions, through the use of ATMs and crucially POSs, in increasing the usage of the banking system as a means of payments instead of cash. ATMs and POSs had explosive growth in 2023 over 2022 (chart below) -albeit from a very small base in the prior years in which banks played a distant second fiddle to cash in settling transactions.
In 2023 the total number of ATMs increased by 80.9% as banks expanded their networks, and the total number of POSs increased by 115.2% spurred by the government's and the CBI's initiatives and measures for the use of the banking system as means of payments in settling transactions instead of cash.
ATMs and POSs (2017-2023)
The increase in the number of bank accounts, bank cards, e-wallets, ATMs, and POSs in 2023 spurred significant growth, year-over-year and month-over-month, in the monthly values of Iraqi Dinar (IQD) transactions through cards and e-wallets (chart below). These build upon the trends that started in 2018, then boosted by the changes in consumer behaviours for the preference of cashless transactions following the onset of COVID-19 as happened elsewhere in the world.
All of these positive developments are at the early stages of the transition to the use of the banking system in the payments for transactions instead of cash, and while they are from a small base, the trends are clear and mirror, with a time-lag, those that took place elsewhere in emerging and frontier economies. As such, they reflect an unfolding long-term structural economic transformation that is taking place which has lasting positive implications for the country’s banking sector –which should disproportionally benefit the top banks. Over time, this structural economic transformation, will enhance the new normal for the top banks’ growth profile that was discussed in “Banks end the Year with a Bang”, which will be marked by an increased adoption of banking and of formality, coupled with a move away from the dominance of cash and informality. Such developments that the investment thesis for the banking sector contends would come with growth in bank lending, resulting in an expansion of the money circulating in the economy and consequently an increase in non-oil GDP. Over time, the banks’ net profits should grow substantially, and ultimately feed into higher stock market valuations driven by both net profit momentum and increases in market multiples placed upon these net profits. The equity market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), which by the close of the month is 17.0% below its 2014 peak, has the potential to regain that peak and to rally further, reflecting the developments discussed above. However, significant risks remain given Iraq’s recent history of conflict, extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, as well as the risks that the widening of the current Middle East conflict will not be contained and evolve to destabilise the region.
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