Kocher: The 2025 budget tables are formal and will not meet ambitions
Member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Kocher, confirmed that the 2025 budget tables will be formal and brief.
The video for this My FX Buddies Blogpost is below here:
Kocher said in a press statement followed by (Video News Agency) that: The government will ask the political blocs to vote on it, as happened in the 2024 budget tables, noting that these tables will not live up to the aspirations of the citizens who are waiting for them, expecting that they will not include anything new.
Kocher added that the budget will be passed in a formal form without any noteworthy additions, which makes it unable to meet public aspirations or make any significant qualitative change in its items.
An expert explains the reasons for the decline in the Central Bank's dollar sales and speaks of "signs of recession" in the Iraqi market.
On Thursday, June 26, 2025, economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi explained the reasons behind the decline in the Central Bank of Iraq's dollar sales during the first five months of 2025, while speaking of what he described as "signs of the Iraqi market entering a state of economic recession."
Al-Obaidi said in a clarification monitored by Al-Jabal that "the Central Bank of Iraq's sales of US dollars during the first five months of 2025 recorded a 4% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with total sales reaching $31.5 billion, a decrease of about $1.3 billion compared to the same period last year, which amounted to $32.9 billion."
Al-Abidi added, "The decline was clearly concentrated in cash dollar sales, which fell by 17%, reaching $1.3 billion compared to $1.55 billion during the same period in 2024."
Al-Obaidi pointed out that, "In contrast, dollar sales through the dollar-denominated currency balance-boosting mechanism witnessed a significant increase of 38%, reaching $30.2 billion, compared to $21.9 billion during the same period in 2024. As for the direct foreign transfer mechanism, which was used in previous years, or what was mistakenly known as the auction, it completely stopped in 2025, after it had recorded $9.4 billion during the first five months of 2024."
According to Al-Obaidi, Central Bank data also showed "a sharp decline in dollar sales used to settle international payments via electronic cards, falling from $1 billion in January 2025 to just $261 million in May. This decline is attributed to restrictions imposed by the Central Bank on the use of cards outside Iraq, in addition to the inability of some banks to carry out international settlements."
Al-Obaidi pointed out that, "Despite this significant decline in total dollar sales from the Central Bank, the exchange rate in the parallel market witnessed a significant decline during the same period. This decline in the price, despite the limited supply of dollars, may indicate the beginnings of the Iraqi market entering a state of economic recession, due to a group of complex factors that have affected the volume of demand and commercial activity. What reinforces the possibility of this recession is the decline in inflation rates in recent months to their lowest levels, reaching 1.1% in April 2025."
Expert: Economic stability in Iraq...and identifies a prominent reason
Al-Mashhadani explained in a statement to Al-Furat News that: "The stability includes subsidized gasoline, diesel, and gas, in addition to providing free fuel to private generators to ensure the continuity of electricity for citizens."
He pointed out that "the ampere prices set by the Baghdad Provincial Council for this month were identical to those set last month, indicating relative stability in this aspect of services."
However, Al-Mashhadani warned that "this stability could be negatively impacted if the war continues, especially given the potential for the security situation to deteriorate as a result of the conflict escalating in Iraqi airspace." He noted that "the calm of the government and citizens, along with the end of the war, played a significant role in maintaining economic stability across all sectors."
Texas Firm In Talks To Supply Iraq's First LNG Terminal
Texas-based company Excelerate Energy is one of the bidders in a tender to provide a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) that would welcome Iraq’s first-ever LNG imports, a senior Iraqi official told Bloomberg.
The country, which looks to shake off its dependence on Iranian gas supply for power generation, is in advanced talks with Excelerate Energy for LNG import infrastructure at the Khor Al-Zubair commodities port near Basra in southern Iraq.
U.S. firm Excelerate Energy – which offers floating LNG import terminals, LNG import infrastructure development, and LNG and natural gas supply – is one of the bidders for Iraq’s plan to begin LNG imports, Ali Salman, acting director general for the state-run South Gas Co., told Bloomberg.
South Gas is overseeing the development of the LNG import project.
Iraq has long depended on Iran for natural gas and electricity imports. Despite being a major oil producer, Iraq has historically seen high levels of flaring of associated gas instead of capturing it in a gas supply chain.
In the summer months, during peak electricity demand, Iraq often suffers from crippling blackouts and frequent outages due to unstable and insufficient supply of gas and power from Iran.
Earlier this year, Iraq’s electricity supply predicament worsened after the Trump Administration ended a waiver for Iraq to import electricity from Iran.
The U.S. Administration’s decision to let the waiver expire without extending it “ensures we do not allow Iran any degree of economic or financial relief,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson said in March.
Under pressure to reduce energy dependence on Iran for years, Iraq has been looking at alternative gas supply, including the LNG import option.
At the end of last year, Iraq signed a gas supply agreement with Turkmenistan, securing 20 million cubic meters (mcm/d) per day of gas.
“The gas to be imported from Turkmenistan will be used to operate our power stations and consolidate the national electricity network,” Iraq’s Electricity Minister, Ziad Fadil, said in October.
Iraq bids farewell to the popular economy, and dinars fall into the pit of high prices.
The reality report examines Iraqi markets to document daily complaints about the "price chaos" that has transformed government pricing into a meaningless phrase, used only as official paperwork that doesn't feed a single citizen.
Citizens stand in queues at bakeries and vegetable shops, watching their shopping bills rise by more than a thousand dinars every day, and their cries have risen on Twitter and blogs.
Legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi explained the legal penalty for violating the pricing regulations under Iraqi law.
Al-Tamimi told Al-Masala that this is regulated according to the Trade Regulation Law No. 20 of 1970, as Articles 8 and beyond to Article 17 punish this crime with up to five years imprisonment, which has various forms, including refraining from selling goods, selling at more than the usual price, denying the existence of goods and merchandise when they exist, or stipulating that they be sold with another commodity, which is what Article 17 of the Trade Regulation Law No. 20 of 1970 detailed, along with various fines.
Last Eid al-Adha, for example, saw record-breaking prices for sacrificial animals, with the price of a calf ranging between 3.5 and 4.5 million dinars, and a sheep between 450,000 and 600,000 dinars. Yet the government failed to provide any meaningful support to address these highs.
Field teams in Baghdad observed a lack of effective controls over fruit and vegetable prices, and the proliferation of street vendors who raise prices based on market trends.
Citizens were stunned by marketing officials' justifications, which claimed that "the depreciation of the dinar and the rise in global feed prices" were the causes of the price chaos. They blamed weak oversight and direct government intervention to stabilize prices.
Local activists documented cases of "tax corruption and commercial flattening" in sales records, with fictitious profits being recorded or the actual volume of trade concealed to avoid taxes. Al-Rawabat reported that the Iraqi tax system is in a state of chaos, with billions being wasted without oversight.
Social media platforms were devoid of optimistic discourse and turned into a platform for protest.
Al-Tamimi added: There is also a statement from the Ministry of Commerce, No. 4 of 1983, which prohibits speculation in selling or selling at a price lower than the price to harm others.
He added that the aim of this ban is to maintain price stability in the market.
He explained: "Compulsory pricing is important as it enables citizens to feel reassured and obtain goods and merchandise without restrictions. It also leads to market stability and prevents inflation."
He added: Article 16 of the Trade Regulation Law No. 20 of 1970 also punishes, with a penalty of up to four years in prison, any sale below the prevailing price that harms market stability.
He concluded: This law requires the confiscation of funds obtained from these crimes, and it is important to achieve deterrence and social justice, because hitting one thing with another will make anyone who thinks of committing the crime hesitate, and it is a punishment subsequent to the original punishment.
Analysts explained that this price chaos resulted from a buildup of imbalances: weak oversight, inflation not linked to salaries, and inflationary trading that exploited the daily fluctuations of the dinar.
Attention was drawn to government rationing, as committees failed to control local prices, and discrepancies were recorded between cities and villages, with the price of one commodity differing dramatically between Baghdad, Wasit, and Karbala, without any real oversight of traders.
The bottom line is that Iraqi citizens are now held hostage by a "formal" pricing policy that markets fail to adhere to. Every time a government pricing policy is published, its impact is evaporated by traders and importers seeking to quickly seize the market, with no real deterrent in place.
The chaos has created an economic environment that is eating away at the pockets of the poor, instilling fear of even more exorbitant prices following the reduction of fuel subsidies and the rise in shipping costs, amid a tax crisis that turns every transaction into an open field for corruption.
Laws in Drawers: The Iraqi Parliament is Hostage to Sterile Agreements
The Iraqi parliament is suffering from ongoing legislative paralysis that threatens citizens' interests, while political crises escalate and hinder the passage of vital laws.
The parliamentary session is set to convene on July 10, 2025, after a long recess, amid doubts about its ability to break the deadlock that has cast a shadow over previous legislative sessions.
MPs assert that the agenda will focus on non-controversial laws, but the lack of political will remains the biggest obstacle to any legislative progress.
Statements by Dara Hama Ahmed, a member of the parliamentary legal committee, reveal the depth of the crisis. He noted that parliament "does not act without prior understandings between the major blocs," turning the constitutional institution into a tool for political maneuvering rather than a platform for serving citizens.
Reports indicate that the previous legislative session witnessed limited sessions, forced by popular pressure or international commitments, while regular sessions were absent, reflecting the continued deliberate obstruction.
Delayed issues such as the oil and gas law, the supplementary federal budget law, and the local elections and federal court laws stand out as evidence of the politicization of legislation.
Political polarization links these laws to the calculations of powerful blocs, making the public interest dependent on consensus.
This situation exacerbates citizens' suffering, as issues such as salary scale adjustments and allocations to disadvantaged governorates await pending parliamentary decisions.
Observers warn that Parliament's return may be limited to symbolic sessions that pass marginal laws, while crucial laws remain shelved.
Posts on the popular platform X express concern about Parliament's inability to hold sessions amid escalating political and regional crises.
Observers add that the continuation of this situation will deepen the institutional crisis, leaving the population awaiting political decisions that are far removed from the constitution.
Challenges are expected to remain unless a serious political will is formed to activate parliament, leaving Iraqis' hopes suspended between legislative promises and the reality of political disagreements.
Al-Mashhadani hopes that Iraqis will achieve their aspirations for a dignified and prosperous life.
During his congratulations on the Hijri New Year
Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani congratulated Iraqis on Thursday on the occasion of the new Hijri year, wishing them the fulfillment of their aspirations for a dignified and prosperous life.
Al-Mashhadani's office said:
The Speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, Dr. Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani, extends his sincere congratulations and best wishes to our honorable people and to the entire Islamic nation on the occasion of the new Hijri year. He asks God Almighty to make it a year of goodness, peace, and stability, in which the aspirations of our people for a dignified and prosperous life are fulfilled, and to bring this occasion back to our beloved Iraq while it enjoys glory and progress, and to bring security, peace, and unity to our Islamic nation.
Government advisor: The ceasefire agreement provided temporary relief to oil markets
The Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, confirmed on Thursday that the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the Zionist entity has returned oil markets to a downward trend.
Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "Following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the Zionist entity, which halted threats to close the vital Strait of Hormuz - threats issued within the context of escalation with the Zionist entity - oil markets returned to a downward path and headed towards peace indicators, after a sudden hedging wave that they witnessed at the height of tension."
He added, "The Strait of Hormuz is strategic, through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil passes, in addition to a third of liquefied natural gas supplies destined for international markets under ongoing, long-term contracts." He noted that "the decision to cease the war has given energy markets a strong positive signal indicating the stability of supply routes, especially in the world's most important energy corridor."
“This was directly reflected in Brent crude prices, which are considered a benchmark for oil pricing, as they recorded an immediate drop of more than 5%, equivalent to $3 to $4 per barrel in a single session. This is considered one of the largest daily declines in recent times, which means the end of the threat and the return of balance to the market,” he continued, stressing that “the end of the threats that were threatening the Strait of Hormuz and the return to the language of calm represented a temporary moment of relief for the markets. However, in reality, this relief does not necessarily mean long-term stability, as the fragility of the truce and the possibility of renewed clashes if diplomatic efforts fail, maintain a high level of caution in future forecasts.”
He explained that "the market is now pricing oil and is once again being affected by traditional economic factors: from weak demand, to OPEC+ production policies, to competition between exporting countries from within and outside the organization." He pointed out that "public finances in Iraq must adhere to the constants of hedging and financial discipline included in Law No. 13 of 2023 (the three-year budget), which is spending according to the optimal minimum requirements and resorting to domestic borrowing when needed, as permitted by the law and in a way that does not disrupt basic operational and investment expenditures, even with the disappearance of the (strategic oil premium) generated by threats to the Strait of Hormuz."
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The Abraham Accords Trap: Will "normalization" be imposed on Iraq through "economic and security considerations"?
As signs of a reshuffle of regional alliances in the Middle East mount, questions about Iraq's position on joining the Abraham Accords have once again come to the fore, amid repeated US talk of expanding this framework to include new countries. However, official and semi-official Iraqi statements continue to denials and emphasize the sovereign right to make fateful decisions, particularly regarding normalization with Israel.
In this context, political activist close to the government, Nabil al-Azzawi, commented on this issue today, Thursday (June 26, 2025), in clear terms, stating that "Iraq was not a party to these agreements and will not be," stressing that any attempt to impose external dictates is categorically rejected.
Witkoff's statements reignite the controversy... and Baghdad clarifies its position.
The recent statement by US President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, regarding the possibility of "new Arab countries" joining the Abraham Accords, sparked a wave of anticipation in Iraqi political circles, although the statement did not explicitly mention Iraq. However, Al-Azzawi stressed that "Iraq is not concerned with this proposal," and asserted that "the Iraq of today is not the Iraq of yesterday, and no party can impose external dictates or orders on it."
In his opinion, Iraq's foreign policy stances are based on a "clear vision and fixed principles," and any talk of American pressure to include Iraq in the agreements does not reflect the current political reality or the nature of Baghdad's internal structure.
A Strategic Framework as an Alternative to Normalization?
Al-Azzawi points out that the relationship with the United States should be understood within the framework of the formal agreements signed, foremost among them the Strategic Framework Agreement signed in 2008, which laid the foundation for cooperation in the areas of security, economy, education, and diplomacy, but many of its provisions remained ink on paper.
He emphasizes that Iraq today needs to activate these bilateral agreements instead of resorting to symbolic or political options that are inconsistent with the Iraqi popular mood or its position in the Arab-Israeli conflict. He adds that "the economic and arms file must be managed through these official agreements," not by linking them to external political conditions.
Sovereignty first... and prioritizing from within
. Al-Azzawi links the issue of activating US agreements to a broader demand for the restoration of full Iraqi sovereignty, particularly with regard to the air defense issue, which he considers one of the most important pillars of national sovereignty. He explains that the current government seeks to activate pending issues, not engage in immature political projects such as "normalization under pressure."
He asserts that "government policy is moving toward prioritizing internally," focusing first on air defense, then moving later to development and economic issues. This is a path intended to be gradual, based on a balance of interests rather than international alignments.
Normalization and Iraqi consensus have been absent
since the announcement of the Abraham Accords in 2020, which included the UAE, Bahrain, and later Morocco and Sudan. Iraq has maintained a distance from these agreements, both officially and popularly. In May 2022, Parliament passed a law criminalizing normalization with Israel and imposing penalties that may include the death penalty, reflecting widespread refusal within the political system to even discuss this issue.
Despite Iraq's strong ties with the United States, the nature of Iraq's internal balance of power, the influence of some anti-Israel forces, and the sensitivity of Iraq's regional position have rendered the idea of joining the Abraham Accords an option that is not officially open to discussion at this time.
Iraq's unique characteristics prevent it from being dragged into the fray... but the pressure continues.
Reading official and semi-official positions, including Nabil al-Azzawi's statement, it appears that talk of Iraq joining the Abraham Accords remains out of context. Iraq is confronting its internal priorities and attempting to reorganize its economic and military partnerships away from divisive political conditions.
However, this does not prevent American pressure from continuing through indirect means, especially in light of Washington's efforts to redraw the map of its allies in the Middle East. In contrast, Iraq has only one path left: a smart balance, by activating strategic agreements and consolidating sovereignty, while preserving its political principles, without falling into the trap of dictates disguised as economic or security pretexts.
Iraq Development Fund: Liquidation of one of six investment companies with Jordan
The Iraq Fund for External Development announced today, Thursday, the liquidation of one of six Iraqi investment companies with Jordan .
The fund said in a report seen by Al-Sa'a Network that "Iraq has investments with Jordan in six companies, and these investments are in dollars, Jordanian dinars, and Kuwaiti dinars ."
He explained that "the first company is the Arab Mining Company, with a capital of more than $200 million, while Iraq contributes 20.2%, at a value of $40 million and 400 thousand ."
He added, "The second company is the Arab Potash Company, with a capital of 83 million, 317 thousand, and 500 Jordanian dinars, and Iraq has a 5% share in it, amounting to 3 million, 920 Jordanian dinars ."
He pointed out that "the third is the Arab Company for Pharmaceutical Industries and Medical Appliances (ACDIMA), with a capital of 83 million and 930 Kuwaiti dinars, and Iraq's share of it is 23.81%, amounting to 19 million and 980 thousand Kuwaiti dinars ."
He added, "The fourth company is the Arab Bridge Maritime Company, with a capital of $100.5 million, of which Iraq's share is 33.3%, amounting to $33.5 million ."
According to the fund, "the fifth company is Alba House for prefabricated buildings and metal structures, with a capital of 10 million Jordanian dinars, and Iraq's share is 50%, amounting to 5 million Jordanian dinars ."
He concluded that "the sixth company is the Iraqi-Jordanian Land Transport Company (under liquidation) with a capital of $50 million, of which Iraq's share is 50%, amounting to $25 million ."
It is noteworthy that Iraq has 30 investment companies with Arab countries .
Alarming figures from the Central Bank: Initial indications of an impending economic recession in Iraq
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Economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi revealed on Thursday (June 26, 2025) that the Central Bank of Iraq recorded a 4% decline in total US dollar sales during the first five months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. He warned that this decline could be an early indicator that the Iraqi market is entering a recession.
Al-Obaidi said, in a clarification followed by "Baghdad Today," that "the Central Bank's total dollar sales amounted to $31.5 billion during the first five months of 2025, a decrease of approximately $1.3 billion compared to sales during the same period in 2024, which amounted to $32.9 billion."
He pointed out that "the decline was primarily concentrated in cash dollar sales, which fell by 17%, reaching only $1.3 billion compared to $1.55 billion last year, while dollar sales via the "Currency Balances Enhancement" mechanism saw a 38% increase, reaching $30.2 billion, compared to $21.9 billion in the corresponding period."
Al-Abidi added, "The direct foreign transfer mechanism, previously used under what was incorrectly known as the 'auction,' has completely halted this year, after recording $9.4 billion in the same period in 2024."
He explained that "dollar sales used to settle international payments via electronic cards declined from $1 billion in January to just $261 million in May, due to restrictions imposed by the Central Bank and the inability of some banks to complete settlements."
Al-Obaidi emphasized that "this decline in sales, despite the decline in the exchange rate on the parallel market, reflects a decline in commercial demand and economic activity, which increases the likelihood of an economic recession, especially with inflation rates falling to 1.1% in April 2025, the lowest level in years."
Two Iraqi delegations to arrive in Erbil to resolve financial disputes with KRG
Two separate delegations from Baghdad are set to arrive in Erbil soon to discuss financial disputes with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), a well-placed source told Rudaw on Thursday.
A technical delegation was en route to Erbil at the time of writing while a high-profile and decision-making delegation is set to arrive in the Kurdish capital on Monday, the source said on the condition of anonymity.
Iraqi Finance Minister Taif Sami informed the KRG late May that it could no longer pay the regional government’s share from the federal budget, claiming that the funds allocated to the KRG had been exhausted.
Erbil has denied the claim, accusing Baghdad of failing to adhere to a February ruling by the federal supreme court which stipulates that the KRG’s share should not be impacted by political disputes.
The technical delegation will discuss the method of calculating the federal government's share of non-oil revenues that the Kurdistan Region delivers monthly to Baghdad. Federal oil ministry representatives will also discuss with the Kurdish oil officials the obstacles to Kurdistan Region oil exports and company conditions for those exports.
Exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been suspended since March 2023, following a ruling by a Paris-based arbitration court that found Turkey had violated a 1973 pipeline agreement by allowing independent exports from Erbil.
The other delegation is scheduled to visit the Kurdistan Region on Monday. This is a high-level delegation including representatives from the Iraqi oil and finance ministries and other senior officials to discuss the issues and how to resolve them based on the technical committee's report.
Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani hoped on Wednesday that the high-level delegation’s visit would resolve the disputes.
In February, the Iraqi parliament approved amendments to the federal budget law, including a $16-per-barrel fee for production and transport costs for international oil companies (IOCs) operating in the Kurdistan Region.
The amendments also require both sides to establish an international technical consultancy within 60 days to assess oil production and transportation costs. If no agreement is reached, the federal council of ministers should appoint the consultancy.
The Kurdistan Regional Government hands over the June payroll list to the Ministry of Finance
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