First of all
Iran is mediating Iraqis to convey a message to America: We will never stand behind the attempted assassination of Al-Kazemi
An Iranian diplomat said that Tehran had informed the United States, through Iraqi mediators, that it had nothing to do with the attempted assassination of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, which took place last Sunday in Baghdad.
The Wall Street Journal quoted the Iranian diplomat (who was not named): “We had to tell the Americans, through the Iraqis, that we had nothing to do with these attacks.”
According to the newspaper, this message was clearly sent during the meeting that brought together the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, "Esmail Qaani" with the Iraqi Prime Minister, "Mustafa Al-Kazemi", on Monday, in Baghdad. .
The newspaper pointed to what it called frantic negotiations to push the Iraqi armed groups linked to Iran to calm down and condemn the attempt to assassinate “Al-Kazemi”, which reflects the escalating threat these groups pose to Iraqi institutions and the difficulty of controlling them, which may put their Iranian friends in a new predicament that negatively affects the The current nuclear negotiations with the United States.
According to the report, the Iraqi armed groups agreed to condemn the attack on “Al-Kazemi,” and to cooperate with the current government investigations into that attempt, a few hours after the leaders of those groups met with the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Ismail Qaani.
The newspaper pointed to the increasing reports that the assassination attempt was carried out by an Iraqi group, but it was outside Qaani's control.
US officials said that the style of the latest attack on the Iraqi prime minister is similar to previous attacks, in recent months, by Iraqi groups that targeted US bases and facilities.
But the attack on "Al-Kazemi" was the most daring so far, according to the newspaper, and made Iraqi armed groups risk a violent response.
Iran’s Cash Reserves Soar Under Biden
The Trump admin nearly broke Tehran. Biden's soft stance on sanctions helped the regime get back on track.
Iran's stockpile of hard currency has skyrocketed during the Biden administration, rising from just $4 billion at the end of 2020 when sanctions were at their height, to more than $31 billion by the end of 2021, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund.
The Biden administration's decision to pursue diplomacy with Iran and unwind the Trump administration's sanctions has helped the country recover from its cash shortage, according to the IMF’s projections. The group says Iran's cash reserves will top $31 billion by the end of the year and increase up to $42.9 billion by the end of 2022. This number could be even higher if the United States reenters the 2015 nuclear deal and removes all sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. Iran had $122 billion in cash reserves in 2018, when the Trump administration began to tighten the economic noose on Iran. That number dropped to $4 billion by the end of 2020, during the height of the former administration's "maximum pressure" campaign.
Iran's access to cash has been bolstered by the Biden administration's lax enforcement of sanctions on the country's illicit oil trade, which has increased to record levels amid a buying spree from China, the number-one importer of illegal Iranian crude oil. While Tehran's oil sector is still sanctioned by the United States, experts told the Washington Free Beacon last week that the Biden administration has turned a blind eye to Tehran's exports, enabling countries such as China, Russia, and Syria to provide the hardline regime a financial lifeline.
The IMF's projections are the clearest sign to date that the Biden administration is serious about helping Iran's hardline regime claw back from the brink of economic collapse. Republican leaders in Congress, who are widely critical of the Biden administration's approach to diplomacy with Iran, maintain that the further removal of sanctions will embolden the ruling regime and help it fund terrorist groups across the Middle East, including those responsible for conducting a drone strike late last month on a U.S. military outpost in Syria.
Gabriel Noronha, a former State Department special adviser for Iran under Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said the Biden administration gave up U.S. leverage on Iran by unwinding sanctions before it extracted assurances from Tehran that Iran will stop its nuclear buildup and end its support for terrorism.
"At the end of the Maximum Pressure Campaign in January 2021, Iran was facing a simultaneous debt, inflation, unemployment, and balance of payments crisis caused by massive U.S. economic pressure," Noronha, the executive director of the Forum for American Leadership, a national security think tank, told the Free Beacon. "Now the regime is making tens of billions in unsanctioned oil sales with China while Biden's Treasury Department looks the other way and even supported the IMF giving Iran a $5 billion currency bailout."
"Instead of getting a better deal or depriving the regime of funds for its nuclear program and terrorism," Noronha said, "the Biden administration has obtained zero concessions from the regime in its 10 months of appeasement.
Data from Iran's budget and planning offices showed the country's debt would increase more than 2,000 percent by 2027, from $68 billion to $1.39 trillion, if U.S. sanctions remained in place. If sanctions are unwound, however, Iran will only be around $561 billion in debt by 2027. It was also projected that the Iranian rial—which is already almost worth nothing—would devalue by 10 times the current amount by 2027 if sanctions are not removed.
This is primarily why Iran is pressuring the Biden administration to unwind sanctions before it agrees to a revamped version of the nuclear deal. It remains unclear, however, how long any sanctions relief will remain in place. Republicans in Congress have vowed to immediately trash any deal that is reached between the United States and Iran once Democrats are out of office.
Iran appears to be aware of this possible outcome. Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a ruling body that holds power over the country's policies, said last week that "the U.S. president has no authority [and] is not willing to provide any guarantees [the United States will not leave the nuclear deal again]," according to comments cited in the country's state-controlled press.
Economist: Reducing Central Sales Will Create Pressure On The Monetary Bloc
Today, Wednesday, The Economic Expert, Nabil Jabbar Al-Ali, Warned Against The National Economy Entering A Phase Of Complete Stagnation In The Coming Weeks, Calling For The Creation Of Statistical Data That Includes The Most Important Basic Commodities Consumed By The Poor And Middle Class.
Al-Ali Said, “The Coming Period May Witness A Kind Of Economic Stagnation In Local Markets,” Noting That “Reducing Central Bank Sales Close To 40% May Create Pressure On The Monetary Bloc.”
He Added, "Recession Usually Causes A Rise In Unemployment Rates, Accompanied By A Decline In Purchase Demand, While Many Parties May Be Unable To Work."
Today, Wednesday, The Ministry Of Planning Revealed That The Poverty Rate Has Risen To 31%, Stressing That The Corona Pandemic Has Pushed 4.5 Million Iraqis Below The Poverty Line.
The budget is freed from the constraints of hardship and achieves a financial surplus
International Accounting Standards
Video: Mustafa Al-Kazemi in Sadr City to open Al-Falah Street in its new look
Pictures published by the Municipality of Baghdad, earlier on Saturday, showed one of the most prominent sites in Sadr City, known as "Al-Falah Street", decorated with palm trees, while the mayor of the capital confirmed that it would turn into a "Baghdad icon."
Secretary Alaa Maan said in a statement that “Nass” received a copy of it (September 18, 2021), that “Al-Falah Street in Sadr City will turn into a distinctive Baghdad icon, indicating that “Baghdad is witnessing urban activity today and in the coming months after the launch of financial allocations.”
He explained, "We follow in the field Al-Falah Street, which witnesses the palm planting works that we have started today, and it is one of the stages of development that was prepared and implemented according to distinctive designs, and it includes opening service streets, developing the main street and median carrots, lighting works, extending the mold, making short cuts, paving sidewalks, establishing agricultural caps, and then developing The facades of the buildings, and as we promised our people in Sadr City, this street will be one of Baghdad’s distinctive icons, and it is part of the debt’s response to them for their great sacrifices over the past years.”
He stressed, "We are happy to spread a culture of voluntarily removing abuses in the street, as we have seen great cooperation from the people of Sadr City in this field."
Maan pointed out that "Al-Falah Street is part of a comprehensive development process for the whole city of Baghdad, both sides of Karkh and Rusafa, and we are currently working on developing within (8) residential shops, including Al-Fadiliyah area and its main street, especially since the area has not previously witnessed any development or rehabilitation process."
He said that "there are (25-40) projects awaiting the release of financial allocations for them from the Ministry of Finance to start implementing them, noting that "the capital is witnessing a real urban movement whose momentum increases in the coming months of this year as well as 2022.
An economist talks about the government’s possibility of returning the dollar to the old price
And Muhammad said in a statement to (Baghdad Today), that “the government is able to restore the price of the dollar, provided that there is direct control by the Central Bank of sales operations and the increase of dollar sales outlets in the local market and directly to the citizen and not through the banks that monopolize the dollar and create a market for it. It also controls its price in the market.
He added, “Increasing the price of the dollar is an improvisational decision by some political blocs and the Minister of Finance, who did not rely on raising it gradually, but rather in a sudden manner, as it led to a rise in inflation and an increase in the poverty rate in the country.”
And Muhammad added, “The current finance minister bears the responsibility for raising the price of the dollar and its negative consequences for the economy, as he has not achieved any economic development goal for the country at all.”
The Western world is talking about counterproductive results that were achieved after the assassination attempt: Al-Kazemi is today stronger, and closer to a second
term
Most observers in the countries of the Western world, especially in Washington, agree that the failed attempt to assassinate Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, apparently counter-productive to what the perpetrators wanted. Instead of deterring and weakening Al-Kazemi, the opposite happened, as he is now stronger than before, and gave him a better chance to survive for a second term of government, and at the same time increased the ability of Mr. Al-Kazemi and Mr. Al-Sadr to promote reforms and confront armed militias operating outside the framework of the government. .
Despite the condemnation of Iran and the armed factions, the failed attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi, last Sunday, the general context of the events of confrontations and violence, Friday, and the besieging of demonstrators affiliated with the factions, the Green Zone and their attack by the Iraqi security forces, and the previous threats made by known leaders of the armed factions Through their various media channels against the prime minister, all of them were a sufficient indication of the desire of Iran and the losing parties in last (October) elections to obstruct the re-choice of Al-Kazemi for a second term of government, or at least warn Al-Sadr, who will play the main role in this choice, of the consequences of excluding the losing parties. from the new government.
While there is no clear evidence of a role for Iran in the attack, but the US Department of Defense insists that there are fingerprints of Tehran in the attempt, as well as initial reports indicating that the operation was carried out by two political parties belonging to the armed factions backed by Iran, so it is unlikely that they were directed An assassination strike against the prime minister without the Iranian sponsor's blessing, according to Nathan Sales, a researcher in the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program.
Sales believes that "the United States should hold Tehran accountable for deterring further attacks by the regime and its proxies, work with Iraqi partners to marginalize the factions, bring them under state control, and reduce Iranian activity in Iraq, and it should not lead the Joe Biden administration's desire to restore the nuclear agreement." Iran is to overlook the continued Iranian interference against the Iraqi partner.”
In contrast to Sales, Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative, believes that the perpetrators of the attack on Al-Kadhimi may have done so without the express consent of Tehran, even though Iran is the likely source of the armed drones. And the one used in the attempt, and it hopes that the attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi will serve as a wake-up call for Tehran to try to rein in the factions and persuade it to accept the results of the recent parliamentary elections, because it is not in Iran’s interest to see Iraq turn into chaos.
David Ignatius, a writer in the "Washington Post" newspaper, notes that the attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi shocked many Iraqis, whose desires were clear in the elections. And its attempt to spoil the victory of the nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr with the largest bloc of parliament seats, especially as he tried, like Al-Kazemi, to distance himself from subordination to Iran, and promised that he would not leave Iraq in the grip of Tehran.
opposite result
While it is not yet clear how the incident will affect negotiations between Iraqi political factions over government formation as they wait for the official result to be announced so far, the failed assassination attempt has backfired, as many Washington observers expect, including Randa Salim, director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute. Al-Awsat, which considered that the idea of assassinating the Iraqi prime minister crossed the red line, and that the behavior of Iran and the Iraqi armed factions represented a short-sighted step, reflecting their increasing despair and a complete lack of any strategic thinking, which would make the chance of Al-Kazemi winning a second term almost certain.
This expectation is based on the fact that the assassination attempt would increase discord between members of the Shiite coordination framework, which is the group that brings together Shiite parties competing in the election results, as the attack will further incite some against the Iranian-backed Iraqi factions, and the assassination attempt will weaken the cause that they adopted The Shiite coordination framework regarding electoral fraud, and this is good news for Al-Sadr, whose political bloc won the largest number of parliamentary seats.
As for the second effect that could result from the assassination attempt, it is the resolving of the political stalemate that has prevailed since the announcement of the election results, which was represented in the split between the winner Al-Sadr, who wanted to form a majority government, and the coordination framework that called for canceling the elections, as the situation seemed intractable and did not None of the parties was interested in reaching a compromise, but now the assassination attempt is likely to open the impasse and create common ground between the political blocs as a result of the Iraqis' fear of more instability, and this will be the basis for starting negotiations, so that Sadr and the coordination framework will eventually reach Eventually, a compromise was reached to form a consensus government and to divide the seats among them.
The latest news indicates that a negotiating political meeting took place between a team from the Sadrist movement and a team from the coordination framework.
Tehran did not understand the message
Anthony Pugh, a Middle East researcher, concurs with this analysis, who considered that the defeat of Iran-backed political parties in the parliamentary elections was supposed to send a message that seizing and maintaining power through violence and intimidation could not go on forever. The attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi clearly indicates that Iran did not understand the message, and if the Iraqis attributed the attack to the Iranian-backed factions and took to the streets again as they did last year to protest Iranian interference, this would be a harbinger of violence and counter-violence. To calm in the aftermath of the attack marked by wisdom.
The attack could provide an opportunity for the Iraqi government to rein in loose weapons, especially since the victory of the Sadrist movement would support the Iraqi leadership's popularity enough to move forward with legislation and other reforms that would change its status as independent structures within the Iraqi security forces, as well as try to reduce or eliminate its access to what It receives approximately $2.4 billion annually from the Iraqi government. While such legislation may not see the light of day, the threat of it could pressure armed factions to limit their activities.
Brazil: Iraq has strategic importance and an active role in the region
Italy expresses its readiness to expand cooperation with the Kurdistan Region
The Italian government expressed, on Thursday, its readiness to expand cooperation and coordination with the Kurdistan Regional Government.
This came during a meeting with the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, the new Italian Consul General in the Kurdistan Region, Michelle Camerota.\
A statement issued by the regional government, received by Shafaq News Agency, said that Barzani congratulated the new Italian consul on the occasion of assuming his work, and wished him success in his duties, especially in strengthening relations between the Kurdistan Region and Italy at all levels.
For his part, the Italian Consul General pointed to the importance of consolidating his country's relations with the Kurdistan Region, and announced Italy's readiness to expand cooperation and coordination with the Kurdistan Regional Government.
Economist: The Government Did Not Improve The Disposal Of The Financial Abundance That It Has... The Citizen Is Crying Out For Help
The economic expert, Ihsan Al-Kinani, said, on Thursday, that the government has a great financial abundance, which it obtained from the increase in oil prices, the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar, and the near completion of Kuwait’s compensation, pointing out that the government did not improve the disposal of its funds at a time when the citizen is still He is the first victim of its fiscal policy.
Al-Kinani told Al-Maalouma, "The government obtained very large sums after the rise in oil prices and crossed the threshold of 85 dollars per barrel, in addition to the gains it achieved after raising the exchange rate of the dollar, in addition to the fact that a lot of money will return to it with the close of the Kuwait compensation file. “
He added that "the available sums should be offset by a reduction in the value of the dollar against the dollar, improvement of ration items, the establishment of housing complexes and offering them to the citizen free of charge or in symbolic amounts, the introduction of giant factories for various types of industries, and the establishment of a new road network to get rid of crowds."
And he indicated that "the government's financial performance is still below the required level, as it has proven its failure to lift the citizen out of his bitter reality, and caused an increase in the poverty rate, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Planning, which confirms that it did not improve the behavior of its financial abundance."
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