Saturday Special Nov 13th, 21 Demands to revaluate the dinar, the government responds
These are the articles I discuss on the My FX Buddies Podcast:
US officials: It is likely that Iran did not order the targeting of Al-Kazemi's house
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The American “NBC News” network quoted current and former US officials as saying that Iran did not issue orders to launch a drone attack to target Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, although it is almost certain that Shiite militia forces that Tehran armed and supported, carried out attack.
A senior US military official and two former senior US officials said; The assassination attempt shows that Tehran has struggled to contain rival Shiite militia leaders, since Washington assassinated the deputy commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and the leaders of the Iranian Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020.
The American network quoted the American military official in a report translated by Shafak News Agency; He said that “it is fair to say that Iran has not had much control over these groups since the killing of Soleimani.”
Drones armed with explosives were at Al-Kazemi’s house in Baghdad in the early hours of the morning of November 7, but Al-Kazemi survived. Iran condemned the attack and denied any role in it.
The American network indicated that current and former officials and regional experts say that the design and components of the drones are similar to other drones used by Iranian-backed militias since July 2020, including a number of failed attacks on the US embassy compound.
The network pointed out in its report that the commander of the US Central Command, General Frank McKenzie, blamed the assassination attempt on Iranian-backed militias earlier this week, while current and former US officials say that the weapons used, tactics, and the target all refer to the Iranian-backed militias.
Having indicated that Iran’s relationship with its proxies in Iraq and other regions of the Middle East is deliberately opaque, giving it the means to deny responsibility for the attacks carried out by the partners it trained and armed. But the network said that current and former officials now say that the assassination attempt was not backed by Iran.
The network quoted the former US ambassador to Iraq, Douglas Silliman, that it does not appear that the assassination of Al-Kazemi serves Iran’s strategic interests, because it would risk unleashing a turbulent chain of events on its borders.
The former US ambassador said, “I would be very surprised if Iran ordered a drone attack on Al-Kazemi. Iran does not want to see a completely destabilizing Iraq, and simply wants an Iraq that is not balanced enough to have broad political and economic influence.”
The report of the American network pointed to the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Esmail Qaani, to Baghdad immediately after the attack, and to his call for calm and national unity, adding, however, that it is believed that Qaani exerts less influence than Soleimani, who spoke Arabic and had years of experience. In dealing with the Iraqi militias, she pointed out that none of the militias had the authority that Muhandis had.
Douglas Silliman considered that the absence of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis sparked a struggle for influence between the militia leaders and is still emerging, adding, “I think that the tension in the ranks of the Iraqi militia leaders is as much as it exists between the militias and Tehran.”
The report also quoted a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Michael Knights as saying that the militias have committed a series of political mistakes and have been struggling to maintain their influence since the killing of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis. “Since then, the wheels have stopped turning,” he added.
Norm Rolle, who worked for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency and served in the Middle East, said that the Iraqi forces loyal to Iran are not “a single bloc”, considering that competition between them could generate more violence.
“It is likely that Iran will reduce support for some (militias) in favor of others. However, the former groups will not only disappear and this will be a problem for everyone,” Rowley explained.
The report noted; The attack raised experts’ questions about why US or allied intelligence agencies did not detect the attack in advance and whether Washington should provide more security assistance, including anti-drone technology, to protect senior Iraqi and former officials.
“The attack also showed that Iraqi and Western intelligence about forces loyal to Iran is still not enough,” Rowley said. “.
While the report indicated that the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Council in the White House declined to comment, and that President Joe Biden demanded that those responsible for the attack be identified and held accountable, Rowley said that the attack on Al-Kazemi did not necessarily serve Iran’s strategic goals.
However, Rowley added that Tehran bears part of the responsibility for the attack due to its strong support for the militias, and explained that “while it may be a good thing that Iran did not order the assassination attempt against Al-Kazemi, we should not ignore the fact that Iran established, trained and directed the groups that “It is likely that it was behind this attack. For this reason, at least, Iran bears some responsibility for this attack.”
Text of Iyad Allawi's letter to US President Joe Biden
On Saturday, the leader of the National Civil Front, Iyad Allawi, sent a message to US President Joe Biden regarding the developments of the situation on the local and regional arenas.
Allawi clarified in his message, according to a statement by his office, that Nass received a copy of it (November 13, 2021), that "there are serious disturbances that threaten security and stability in the region and the world at large, which requires immediate and objective analysis and calls on us to conduct a comprehensive review of these situations."
Allawi stressed, "In 2003, after the overthrow of Saddam's regime, unwise decisions were taken, as the policies followed at that time, in addition to the dissolution of government institutions and the politicization of the de-Baathification law, led to the emergence of abhorrent sectarianism that gave birth to a very bad political process," adding that "in 2010 There was a valuable opportunity when the Iraqis united together to save the country and the Iraqiya coalition was chosen, which won the legislative elections but was deprived of its right to form the new government, when the will of the people was circumvented and undermined the newly nascent democracy in Iraq.
He continued, "We've known each other for more than thirty years, and we've always been very frank with each other, since the time you were chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and I was in the Iraqi opposition."
He pointed out that "Iraq, although it represents a small part of the current global challenge, but it is a flash point for the Asian region and others and has a great impact on security and stability in the world, so it needs special treatments," noting "at the same time that it is important and necessary The United States of America has to restore its credibility and maintain its global leadership position, after its exit from the region and from Afghanistan and the devastation it caused in Iraq damaged its concept as a reliable ally."
Allawi also indicated that "sending reliable envoys to the region would support the possibility of achieving effective and good governance in Iraq and the region, and would be able to restore confidence in the electoral process and increase voter turnout on a large scale."
Allawi concluded by saying, "It is wise to support the constitutional amendments that include articles on human rights and basic citizen rights, as well as the principles of promoting good governance and enacting the necessary laws such as the oil and gas revenue sharing law.
National Oil holds a meeting to discuss increasing the proven reserves of oil and gas
The ministry stated in a statement that {Euphrates News} received a copy of it, that "the meeting's agenda included discussing the mechanisms for updating the national energy strategy for the year 2015 in line with the directions and plans of the national oil in developing and developing the oil industry in Iraq, and the variables and expectations in the global energy markets."
The statement added, "In this meeting, the company's plans to increase exploratory drilling activity were discussed in order to increase and enhance the proven reserves of oil and gas, and to accelerate the development of the Cruz gas field in the Western Desert of Anbar Governorate."
In a related context, the meeting discussed plans to start operating the crutch gas field by the national effort as a first stage to enhance gas supplies, and in preparation for attracting global investments in this framework. The meeting was attended by the company's vice presidents, council members and officials of oil companies.
Al-Fateh Warns Of American Moves To Assassinate Military And Political Leaders
On Saturday, the Al-Fateh Alliance expressed its astonishment at the procrastination in revealing the facts regarding the bombing of the home of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, warning against American moves to assassinate Iraqi military and political leaders.
A member of the coalition, Muhammad al-Baldawi, said in a statement to the "Information" agency, that "it is shameful that the government accuses Iraqi parties who have proven their loyalty to the country in the ISIS war, and leaves the real accused taking advantage of the circumstances to shuffle the papers."
He pointed out that "it is assumed that the green atmosphere is secured by the American CERAM system, in addition to their continuous flight in Iraqi airspace day and night, and therefore the US forces are the first and last suspect."
He pointed out that "all the military and political leaders are exposed to the American forces, which poses an imminent danger to them and the possibility of targeting their lives and throwing charges against the factions and the popular crowd."
It Reached $20 Billion.. The Government: The External Public Debt Is In Relinquishment
Adviser to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, announced on Saturday that the country’s external public debt has decreased to $20 billion, while stressing that the year 2022 will be free of financial hardships and financing restrictions.
Saleh said in an interview seen by / the information /, that "the external public debt of Iraq is in a waiver and is within the limits of 20 billion dollars, and the public budget bears the debt-extinguishing services according to set timings," noting that "the internal debt is still the largest at the present time, It exceeds the external debt three times, but remains confined to the framework of the government financial system exclusively, and is not related to the public.”
He added that "Iraq is in recovery and will inevitably live in the next 2022 without financial hardships or financing restrictions, caused by a lack of revenues, due to the recovery of the energy market and the boom in demand for oil, as well as the increase in the proceeds of Iraq's oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day," noting that "" This addition to the current total oil production and alone will generate an additional annual revenue estimated at about 17 trillion Iraqi dinars if the average price of a barrel of oil reaches $75.”
Saleh pointed out that “the issue depends on the total spending ceilings in the budget, and if it is assumed that the spending ceiling in the 2022 budget is the same in 2021, and that the average price of a barrel of oil achieved throughout the year is not less than $75, then the oil revenues will alone cover the expenses.” The college is included in the budget and achieves something from the surplus in the availability of other non-oil revenues.”
He added, "This means that for the first time, there will be a budget that achieves a financial surplus without the need to borrow, and if borrowing is achieved, it does not exceed 3% of the gross domestic product, which is stipulated in the financial management law in force due to ongoing construction projects linked to its financing with international loans," he added. By saying: "In my estimation, it does not exceed 3 billion dollars per year, in addition to the construction loan whose bonds are offered for circulation to the public at a trillion dinars.
Former Deputy: The Minister Of Finance Bears Full Responsibility After Raising The Prices Of Bread And The Dollar
A member of the former Parliamentary Economy and Investment Committee, Nada Shaker Jawdat, accused, on Saturday, Finance Minister Ali Allawi of failing to manage the economic and reform file in the country, indicating that Allawi bears full responsibility after raising the dollar and flour prices.
Jawdat said in a statement to "Al-Maalouma", that "Finance Minister Ali Allawi proposed the economic reform paper, and what the citizen gained from it is raising the prices of basic commodities and the dollar, raising the prices of treatment and homes, the last of which is bread, and bears full legal and political responsibility towards the people."
He added, "International oil prices rose more than the prices that were estimated in the 2021 budget, but the government did not explicitly announce the development projects that took place at the difference in oil prices."
Jawdat indicated that "the employee's salary was reduced by 21% and the prices of basic goods increased by about 50%, which means that the percentage of the remaining salary is 50% of its real value before the arrival of the current government."
Demands to revaluate the dinar, the government responds
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Devaluating the Iraqi dinar in the 2021 budget has stirred the discontent of the public, and economic and financial experts alike. In spite of the warnings from its negative economic and social reverberations, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance ascribes it a breakthrough amid a stifling economic crisis that has struck the country.
Last December, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) opted to raise the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar from 1,182 dinars to 1,460 dinars to alleviate the ramifications of the plummeting oil revenues, bringing down the value of the Iraqi national currency and the purchasing power immediately.
As oil prices gradually climbed beyond the 80 dollars a barrel threshold, citizens and economists voiced demands to revaluate the dinar in next year's budget or mitigate the impact of its devaluation on the community.
"The rise is an outcome of a white paper that organizes the process over three to five years. They deem it a part of the economic reform process for the financial situation and banks," economist Bassem Jamil Antoine told Shafaq News agency, "the state cannot change its currency. Still, real reform that serves the poor classes is essential."
“The currency rate is not as vital as compensation for the poor classes, which constitute the bulk of the population; social welfare, ration card availability, and job development are all critical," he said, "unemployment and poverty rates skyrocketed due to lack of job opportunities in the public sector. On the other hand, the private sector is frozen and unable to function properly."
"The recovery of oil prices must compensate for the people, address the deficit, and provide job opportunities for unemployed youth. This will reinvigorate the market, put an end to corruption, and activate the private sector," he said.
Gradual Revaluation
Economist Dhurgham Mohamed Ali said that revaluating the dinar shall be contingent upon several factors, "The exchange rate of the dollar should be gradually reduced to 1,300 dinars while keeping an eye on the cash transactions to preclude creating a black market, dollar smuggling, and tighten the control over imports."
"The outcomes of the devaluation were detrimental. The inflation rates grew, poverty rates soared, while development rates remained static and foreign currency smuggling exacerbated," Ali added.
Neglecting the private sector
"The government has not contributed to reducing the poverty gap and unemployment after raising the dollar rates that inflicted all the strata of society," trader Amir Mohammed al-Hasani told Shafaq News agency, "Its concern was how to pay the salaries of officials and ministers without considering the negative aspects of the devaluation."
"The government should have combated the widespread corruption in the Iraqi state, revived the private sector by eliminating the obstacles hindering its growth and activating laws that would provide support and protection to this important sector," al-Hasani said.
"The rise in the dollar has hurt us as foodstuff prices have risen to more than 30% despite the steady salaries we earn," Hussein al-Khafaji, an employee of the Ministry of Education, told Shafaq News agency.
"My salary ends by the middle of the month, forcing me to look for another job to meet the needs of the family," he said, calling on the government to revaluate the dinar.
For its part, a government source told Shafaq News agency that the dollar rates will remain unchanged in the fiscal year 2022.
"There is no change or incident that causes the exchange rate to change," the source said, adding, "the Ministry of Finance has confirmed this."
"Over the previous nine months, the ministry has constantly followed the indicators of devaluation against the dollar," the Ministry of Finance stated on October 5, 2021.
The exchange rate alteration has contributed to a rise in the Central Bank's foreign reserves to 60 billion dollars in April 2021, up from 54 billion dollars in December 2020.
According to the Finance Ministry, the currency rate shift also helped "reduce the demand for foreign currency, lower the dependence on imports, and enhance local production."
"In the context of the crisis, there has been a clear recovery in corporate activity in the last nine months of this year," the Finance Ministry stated.
According to the ministry, it is working to "reinvest the revenues of the funds achieved to build a target production base outside the oil sector and rely on other sectors, which will contribute to the decline in demand for the dollar as a result of compensating some of the goods produced."
Since the current government's formation, the ministry has adopted plans and mechanisms to reform Iraq's fiscal policy, culminated in adopting the "White Paper", which outlined future economic and financial policy steps to promote domestic production and reduce imports for the country.
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