Electronic payment... Money is hoarded in homes and education is not at the required level
Not long ago, Iraq took the first steps towards attempts to activate the electronic payment system . These steps began by localizing employee salaries, and then installing electronic payment devices in several places, including gas stations. However, many experts and specialists still see... The culture of electronic payment is not at the required level, for many reasons, including those related to economic and electronic culture, in addition to the widespread corruption in the country, which hinders its full implementation.
Economic experts believed that education for electronic payment in Iraq is not yet at the required level
According to experts , the Iraqi government, through attempts to implement electronic payment, aims to withdraw the monetary mass circulating in Iraq, which amounts to 84 trillion dinars.
The economic expert, Nasser Al-Kanani, believes that implementing the electronic payment system in all governmental and non-governmental sectors is difficult to achieve in Iraq, due to the lack of electronic culture among citizens of all segments, indicating that “cash payment cannot be stopped and will remain partially due to its necessity.”
Al-Kinani told Ultra Iraq, “Money is naturally stored among citizens and the possibility of withdrawing it and making it electronic in digital payment cards cannot happen without planning and persuasion.”
According to Al-Kanani, “the best way for electronic payment to be successful is for the Central Bank to carry out the process of deleting 3 zeros from the currency, printing new currencies, and announcing a period of one month for citizens to exchange all their money with a new edition, which will give an impression of the strength of the dinar against the dollar and the rest of the currencies.” .
When this step is achieved, the government - speaking to Al-Kanani - “will replace 10% of the money and deliver it to citizens, while the remainder is placed in a bank account that is opened for every citizen, depositing his money and giving him an electronic card to withdraw from it,” stressing that “this step will eliminate... Cash circulation, corruption and hoarding operations, as well as currency smuggling in one way or another.”
Al-Kanani said, “Education for electronic payment is not at the required level now, and its application in gas stations and determining the period of total commitment to it are considered impossible to achieve because the problems that occur with this process now, with the failure of payment devices to the exclusion of others in the rest of the economic interests, raise many question marks about the seriousness of the limit.” Whoever deducts more than the price.”
Al-Kanani also believed that “the government’s step now to talk about electronic payment and oblige citizens is a step towards a thousand miles in this project compared to successful experiences in many countries such as the United States of America, represented by the Federal Bank, whose electronic card is used everywhere, in addition to the Lebanese Byblos Bank and its card, which is used as an example.” In Baghdad, this is what spreads a global culture in these countries, unlike the poor culture of these dealings in Iraq, because the citizen lost confidence in the state after 2003 due to impromptu political decisions and the absence of real planning.”
An economist said that cash payment cannot be stopped and will remain partly due to its necessity
Despite what the expert said about the “difficulty” in implementing the electronic payment system, the World Bank, on February 7, claimed that the infrastructure for electronic payment systems in Iraq is “among the best in the region,” according to a statement issued by the Central Bank of Iraq .
On the sidelines of Sudanese’s participation in the Davos Economic Forum, last January, a government statement said that the World Bank supports measures to develop the banking sector, especially the electronic defense system, which attempts are being made to adopt in Iraq.
On January 17, 2023, the Iraqi Council of Ministers approved the recommendation of the Council of Ministers for the Economy to activate the electronic payment service, as the decision stated that “the system enjoys a high level of protection and security, reduces time and effort, and contributes to stimulating the movement of the economy.”
The previous government decision obligated the Central Bank to "facilitate the procedures for granting licenses to collect bank cards and exempt all electronic payment (POS) transactions from taxes."
The researcher in economic affairs, Ali Daadoush, identifies the most important points through which the implementation of electronic payment systems in Iraq can be successful.
In an interview with “Ultra Iraq,” Daadoush said, “The electronic payment application requires a culture, publishing extensive and simplistic advertisements for the citizen, and taking into account the experiences of countries in which electronic payment systems have succeeded and gradually transformed into a cashless society, such as Sweden, for example.”
Experts talk about one of the reasons for moving away from the electronic payment system, which is the citizen’s loss of confidence in the state after 2003
Daadoush called for “the necessity of emphasizing transparency in publishing sufficient information that allows the ordinary citizen to know what he has and what he owes, such as the amount of each company’s commission, how to issue a payment card, how much is its ceiling, and others,” saying that “these steps will facilitate the procedures for dealing with electronic payment systems in the country.” "The country."
An economic expert reveals a new desire by the Central Bank to reduce the dollar... but on one condition
Qusay said: For the {Free Speech} program broadcast by Al-Furat satellite channel this evening, it said: “The budget making process is still based on items and does not depend on clear scientific foundations in the estimation process, and the actual spending in the 2022 budget is currently being repeated with the addition of a certain percentage. There are tensions that may be Among decision makers regarding the process of increasing the share of a particular ministry at the expense of another ministry or introducing appointments.”
He added, "The program of the government of Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani came with a set of goals and was achieved through financial funding and funding sources from the Ministry of Finance, which pledged to prepare a program budget according to priorities."
Qusay pointed out, “Until now, the governmental or unified system is unable to calculate the costs of programs, and in order to isolate the process of tensions from making the number, which is subject to environmental variables, some of which are local and some are international, and therefore it is necessary to reconsider some sections in a way that is consistent with the priorities.
The process of re-estimating according to science is based on Basis for programs and standards. When the Ministry of Finance presents estimates, it must discuss the scientific basis regarding the cost of each program.
He continued, "The Sudanese government is proceeding to amend the terms, and the Council of Ministers has added new financial allocations to some projects. The current problem is not in oil prices, but in quantities. Iraq has pledged to reduce exports, and this reduces financial revenues, as well as the problem of the cessation of Ceyhan oil," referring to "diverting oil exports from Kirkuk." And the region to southern oil causes Iraq to lose about $3 per barrel.”
Qusay confirmed, “The fluctuation in financing is what prompted the government to approve a tripartite budget, and in the event of an increase in oil prices, 30% goes to the governorates and 70% goes to fill the deficit, and the final account shows this issue, and the World Bank indicated that the percentage of appointments in Iraq has increased to more than 4 million.” employee".
He acknowledged, "The presence of safety buffers away from oil means, at the level of the Central Bank's reserves, collecting revenues from the Ministry of Electricity and other ministries increases financial resources; but non-oil imports are ineffective, some of which go into the pockets of the poor, and in practice we have to track the movement of goods and impose control."
He noted, "The Central Bank of Iraq's desire to return the dollar to its previous status, but not before the internal debts are zeroed out. Finance has alternatives to settle these debts, including transferring some state shares, and the Rafidain Bank can also fulfill the Central Bank's dues."
Qusay concluded with "real support for the dinar in the diversification of economic resources, and Iraq can cover its financial needs without the need for hard currency. Iraqi banks that are currently restricted are thinking about offering a variety of products in the local environment, and I believe that they will achieve higher profits than they acquired from the dollar."
Saleh: Iraq is experiencing high price stability and the decline of parallel market noise
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed that Iraq “is experiencing a state of price stability.”
Saleh told Al-Furat News Agency: “The country is experiencing a high state of stability at all price levels, whether in terms of the general level of prices and low inflation growth rates, or in terms of the broad influence of the central exchange market and the foreign currency window in stabilizing the commodity supply prices of goods imported into the country and integrating “The capabilities of the official central exchange market in providing broad financing to the private sector at the fixed exchange rate for foreign trade of 1,320 dinars per dollar.”
He pointed to "high flexibility, whether in applying compliance procedures or in methods of external transfer in various currencies, which has begun to affect the decline of the parallel market and reduce the level of price noise that it previously caused on price stability."
All dollar editions are valid for circulation.. 5 new instructions from “Asayish” Sulaymaniyah
On Monday, the Sulaymaniyah Asayish Security Directorate issued 5 instructions regarding financial transactions in the city’s dollar market, including prohibiting discrimination between old and new dollar editions, and dealing in electronic currency in any form.
Colonel Abdul Salam Abdul Khaliq - Sulaymaniyah Security Spokesman:
The decision was signed in December last year, has just been directed to the dollar market and must be adhered to.
In an official letter, the Security Control and Disbursement Division in Sulaymaniyah ordered all companies, offices, dealers, and merchants to adhere to 5 specific instructions, otherwise they would be subject to legal prosecution.
- It is not permissible to distinguish between old and new editions of the dollar, and currency (counterfeit, torn, completely broken) is not accepted.
- When the transfer is received, there is no need for a guarantor, and it must be delivered to the named person or his agent.
- The person receiving the transfer must have identification.
- The transaction must be direct and face-to-face.
- Dealing in electronic currency in any form is not permitted.
Economist: The window for selling the currency ends in 2024, and the central bank will devote itself to supervision
Al-Sheikhli said {to Al-Furat News} that: “The window for selling the currency is about to end during the year 2024, and cash sales are now few in relation to remittances, and there are more than 200 million dollars transferred for the purposes of importing goods from abroad according to the method of documentary credits, and this process excludes many problems.”
He added, "The Central Bank of Iraq decided to end the currency window process and adopt correspondent banks as an alternative. There will be a new mechanism to provide currency for transfers without returning to the currency window or the electronic platform."
Al-Sheikhly believes, “This mechanism will save a lot of effort and external relations. Therefore, the Central Bank will devote itself to the role of supervision and auditing and not enhancing the balances. It will also absolve itself of responsibility for the import process according to its law.”
He added, "There will be more than one external correspondent bank in different currencies according to the trade imported from the source. This will eliminate the problems, the most prominent of which is the process of leakage of funds from the Central Bank and banks to prohibited parties."
KRG’s MyAccount initiative launched in Sulaimani, Duhok
link expansion
The pilot project will be finalized in 2025 with the goal of integrating all civil servants into the digital payment system.
The supervisory team of the MyAccount initiative, a financial inclusion program, at the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister's office on Sunday informed Kurdistan24 that the registration process for civil servants from Sulaimani and Duhok commenced on Sunday.
The KRG Ministry of Finance and Economy announced in January that the first phase of the MyAccount initiative in Erbil province has reached its final phase, and approximately 190,000 civil servants in Erbil province have registered in the program.
The pilot project will be finalized in 2025 with the goal of integrating all civil servants into the digital payment system.
The government’s Department of Information Technology (DIT) designed, tested, piloted, and implemented a secure application for onboarding KRG employees into the program in line with the Central Bank of Iraq’s Know-Your-Customer (KYC) needs, according to a press release previously shared with Kurdistan 24.
Four private banks have so far taken part in the project, including Ashur, BBAC, Cihan, and RT Bank.
Erbil currently has about 50 ATMs from five private banks, namely: RT Bank, Cihan Bank, Ashur International Bank, National Bank of Iraq, and BBAC Bank, all of which are synchronized with MyAccount, except for the National Bank of Iraq.
MyAccount Initiative is the KRG's financial inclusion program which aims to "provide public sector beneficiaries with a safe, and convenient way to access their salaries."
An economic expert expects the dollar to rise before Ramadan
Idhib said {to Al-Furat News} that: “Despite the government measures and the Central Bank of Iraq to support the national currency, the reality is still different, as the exchange rates in the parallel market amount to 153 thousand dinars for every 100 dollars, while the official exchange rate is 132 thousand dinars.” ".
He added, "Which means there is a price difference of more than 20 thousand dinars. The reason for this lies in the limited supply of the US dollar and the difficulty of obtaining it by individuals or small merchants. This is what Baghdad seeks in a step to prevent smuggling and money laundering."
Idhib pointed out, "This step, despite its effectiveness, is somewhat harmful and, as I said, caused a major shortage in the supply of the dollar, and the demand for it is increasing, especially with the demand of citizens during this period, which is witnessing the disruption of official working hours and the departure of many Iraqis to travel to regions inside and outside Iraq."
He added, "In addition to the increase in purchasing power for shopping, as we are approaching the month of Ramadan, the market depends by up to 90 percent on imported dollars."
Idhib called for "implementing the policies adopted by the government of Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, while liberalizing the factors for obtaining the dollar smoothly and according to certain ceilings for all citizens."
Selling prices in exchange shops in local markets in Baghdad today, Monday, reached 153,250 dinars, while purchasing prices reached 152,250 dinars.
The parallel dollar is expected to rise before the month of Ramadan and an official assurance of stability
An economic expert expected that the dollar exchange rate would rise in the parallel market before the next month of Ramadan
Salah Nouri told Al-Furat News Agency, “In light of the US Federal Reserve’s position, I think the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market will remain at this level {where it records more than 152 thousand dinars per hundred dollars}.”
He suggested, "It is possible that the dollar exchange rates will record an increase in the month of Ramadan due to the increased demand for importing various foodstuffs from merchants outside the Central Bank's electronic platform system, but this does not mean a deterioration in the purchasing power of most citizens with limited income."
For his part, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, told Al Furat News, “The availability of sufficient commodity supply financed at the official exchange rate confirms the stability of the macroeconomic situation today.”
He added, "At the same time, it is accompanied by the erosion of the side price effects that were caused by the unofficial exchange markets, in favor of the strength and influence of the central exchange market, both in controlling liquidity levels or in providing foreign currency at the fixed official exchange rate, in order to feed the needs of foreign trade with high amounts of financing at the fixed exchange rate." Or the official one, at a rate that meets approximately 90% of the market’s needs for foreign currency, and at the official and fixed exchange rate, as we mentioned earlier.”
In detail...the latest developments in amending the budget and the region’s share
Committee member, Moeen Al-Kazemi, said: For the program {Free Speech} broadcast by Al-Furat satellite channel this Tuesday evening, it was stated: “The budget that was approved in 2023 is a tripartite, and the hope was that it would be with the goals of the government and the Prime Minister to continue working on it without stopping, especially in light of the continued work on projects without the need to vote on a new budget.” "It may take 6 months to approve it."
He explained, "There is an item in the budget that the government presents amendments to the numbers for the new year 2024. These numbers are other than the items that will remain fixed and some changes can be made to them, but they will be minor and do not require discussion and review. It was hoped that the government would present this schedule at the end of the month of December 2023." .
Al-Kadhimi added, "The budget was supposed to continue and funds be released to the ministries and governorates without stopping, and the issue has been stalled by the Ministry of Finance, which caused the cessation of some projects, including in the Ministry of Health and so on in the Ministry of Education."
He continued, "The proposed time limit is that the government sends the amendment to the budget to the House of Representatives, which will study this schedule and approve it. It is considered a new budget, and the spending, promotions, and promotions begin as if everything is linked to this schedule," adding, "It would have been better for the Ministry of Finance to release a first installment to the ministries and draw up a schedule of amendments." On the budget early.
Al-Kadhimi added, "The amended schedule includes an increase in allocations for electric energy, the purchase of wheat and milk, rations, social care, an increase in the costs of crude oil production, and decisions issued by the Council of Ministers, all of which require funding and must be included in this new schedule."
He accused the Ministry of Finance of "disrupting the schedule of amendments to the tripartite budget and withdrawing all remaining funds in the ministries, including the service effort team," adding that "according to what was nominated by the Ministry of Finance, the price that will be approved in the 2024 budget is $70, and there is a paragraph in the budget that addresses the existing surplus, that is, What is calculated in the budget from oil revenues is 119 trillion dinars, and more than 12 trillion dinars are non-oil revenues, and the total of the budget is 137 trillion dinars.”
Regarding the Kurdistan region’s share, Al-Kadhimi commented, “There is a treatment for the issue of oil production costs in the Kurdistan region, as they are much more than the production costs in Basra in the south, and the costs of one barrel may reach $30, considering that the excavating company is a partner of the region in exported oil.”
As for the issue of the region’s share, it was set in the 2023 budget at around 12.67% of the actual expenditure, and it was small compared to other years, considering the graduation of the ruler and the sovereign, and we calculated during 2023 that the region exported, during the first 3 months, approximately 3 trillion dinars, and took taxes for a full year, approximately 4-6 trillion dinars, and the amounts Which was delivered to the region on the basis of entitlement, two or three installments of 700 billion dinars, but the problem of salaries arose for various reasons, which the regional government bears and must be negotiated.”
Al-Kadhimi added, “The budget imposed on the region to deliver 400,000 barrels to the federal government, but the logistical issue was imposed on it to be in the supply of the SOMO company, but the delivery did not take place, and the most amounted to 180,000 barrels, and in 2024 the export stopped, considering that the region needs it and there are negotiations with Turkey.” We do not see a response from the regional government and Baghdad, which asked it for employee data, and it considers this a violation of the region’s sovereignty and wants to take lump sums while it is in charge of the distribution process.”
He also commented on the local elections by saying, “The governorate council elections, the formation of local governments, and the election of governors and council heads will put pressure on the government. A plan must be developed and approved to circulate funds in the governorates, and the Ministry of Finance must speed up the release of the necessary amounts for the local governments to begin their work without delay.”
He stated, “The governorates that have a reconstruction fund can invest the remaining funds to complete the projects necessary for these governorates, and the budget has proven that there are no new appointments and no new contracts and wages, and the government has agreed to fix electricity contracts, and this burdens the state budget by financing salaries.”
Al-Kazemi stated, “With regard to the owners, we had a meeting today. What is important in the government’s performance is that there is serious thought about creating job opportunities through the private sector and credibility from the ministries,” noting that “the ministries so far are not serious in supporting the private sector, and there are still obstacles facing the investor.” And blackmail sometimes."
Regarding the confirmation of contractors who have two years of service or more, Al-Kadhimi concluded his dialogue by saying, “If these steps are present in the budget law, they will be confirmed, and the issue of confirmation may sometimes involve no difference in salaries, and it may reach only 350 thousand dinars, and their salaries before the confirmation of permanent staff were.” It is better, and the contract holders are complaining today about weak salaries, and this must be addressed.”
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Yes it's true and it works and I have done it MYSELF!
Supercell and “Shahid” sign an agreement related to digital entertainment in Iraq
Supercell, the leading Internet services provider in Iraq, announced the signing of a historic strategic partnership agreement with the Shahid video-on-demand platform, which is under the umbrella of the MBC Group.
This partnership aims to integrate the rich and diverse content of the Shahid platform with the internet packages that Supercell offers to its customers for free, giving them the opportunity to access a new world of distinguished digital entertainment.
Through this partnership, “Super Sale” customers will receive:
- A free subscription to “Shahid”: This free subscription opens the door to the rich “Shahid” library, which includes “Shahid Originals” and “Shahid Premieres” in addition to the latest Arabic films. Newly arriving from cinemas, and broadcasting live from a group of Arab, regional and international TV channels in HD quality.
- Unique and diverse content: Super Sale customers can enjoy a wide range of qualitative content suitable for all Arab families, including TV shows, series, movies, children’s programmes, sports, music, and much more.
- A distinctive viewing experience: “Shahid” offers a distinctive viewing experience on various devices, including smartphones, tablets, computers, and smart TVs.
Commenting on this partnership, Zeina Jamal, head of the business development department at “Sourcel,” said: “Our partnership with “Shahid,” the world’s leading Arabic broadcasting platform, comes as an open door for our customers to a new world of entertainment in Iraq, especially with the approaching Ramadan season.”
Mohamed Fouad, Managing Director of Supercell, added: Our partnership with (Shahid) is not limited to the commercial aspect only, but rather it is an exceptional partnership that combines the high speed of the Internet provided by (Supercell) and the unique qualitative content available on the Shahid platform, which gives our customers a dose of... Double the exceptional digital entertainment and unique viewing of the best shows and leading dramatic, cinematic and programming productions at record speeds.”
For her part, Natasha Matos Hemingway, Head of Commercial Affairs and Marketing at Shahid, said: We are pleased with this first-of-its-kind partnership with one of the most prominent Internet service providers in Iraq, which comes in the context of our keenness to expand the reach of Shahid’s quality content to Our viewers in Iraq, and providing “Super Sale” subscribers with added value from unique and pioneering qualitative content in the Arab and international world.
Hemingway added: “Through our partnership with Supercell, we also aim to unify our efforts together to combat digital content piracy, especially as we are approaching the month of Ramadan, when the pace of television and digital viewing across platforms is increasing, and pirated websites are also increasing, something that MBC Group was keen to do.” It is a pioneer in the region through its participation in establishing the “Anti-Piracy Alliance”, with the aim of reducing the losses of production companies resulting from piracy operations, and working to close pirated content sites quickly and decisively, in cooperation with our strategic partners and the competent authorities.”
The Finance Committee sets the date for the 2024 budget schedules to reach Parliament
The Parliamentary Finance Committee announced on Tuesday that the government will send amendments to the 2014 budget schedules to Parliament within a period not exceeding ten days, stressing that it will study these amendments as soon as they reach the committee with the aim of submitting them for approval by the House of Representatives.
Committee member, Moeen Al-Kazemi, said in an interview followed by Al-Eqtisad News, “The government is currently putting the final touches to the amendments it made to the budget schedules through an increase in ration allocations, oil production costs, and an increase in social welfare allocations and others.”
He added, "The government will send the amendments to the 2024 budget schedules to Parliament within a period not exceeding ten days," noting that "the Finance Committee will study these amendments as soon as they reach the committee, with the aim of submitting them for approval by the House of Representatives."
It is noteworthy that the Finance Committee discussed with the Minister of Finance, Taif Sami, earlier, and the committee heard the problems facing the ministry in preparing the budget schedules for the year 2024, and the plan prepared to fill the deficit, and the interventions of the Finance Committee members included the allocations for governorate projects and how to include them in the 2024 budget schedules.
Projects
Iraq announces Tender for Baghdad Metro
Iraq's National Investment Commission (NIC) has announced a tender for the construction of a metro transport system in Baghdad.
The project is being offered on a design, build, operate, maintain, finance, and transfer ownership (DBOMFT) model, and the deadline for receiving Investment bids is Thursday, 11th April, 2024.
According to the tender document:
"Baghdad Metro is a group of lines (routes) using advanced trains that operate automatically and operate without a driver. The metro routes pass through stations above, below and on the ground with two tracks back and forth.
"The Baghdad Metro Project includes seven (7) main lines (routes) with a total length of (150) km, one-hundred fifty kilometer, (64) sixty-four metro stations, four (4) workshops and depots for trains, (2) two metro train control and management centers and power generation stations.
"The train carriages consist of a gold class cabin, a special cabin for women and children, and tourist cabins. The carriage design also contains seats that meet the needs of the elderly and people with special needs."
Tender: Najaf-Karbala Metro Project
Iraq's National Investment Commission (NIC) has announced a tender for the construction of the Najaf-Karbala metro project.
The project is being offered on a design, build, operate, maintain, finance, and transfer ownership (DBOMFT) model, and the deadline for receiving Investment bids is Thursday, 11th April, 2024.
According to the tender document:
"The route starts from Najaf International Airport, passing through the city center of holy Najaf province, arriving at Karbala Airport International and then to the city center of holy Karbala province, with ... four main stations.
"The proposed length of the Najaf-Karbala metro route is 90 km."
Military Stuff
For the second time today... missile launches target an American base in eastern Syria
Media reported, today, Tuesday, that the "Al-Omar" oil field was targeted by missile salvos, for the second time in less than two hours, hitting the American military base
The Russian "Sputnik" news agency said that, for the second time in two hours, explosions occurred within the American base in the "Al-Omar" oil field in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, which is considered one of the largest American bases in Syria, after it was targeted by successive missile barrages, this evening, Tuesday.
She added that the explosions that rocked the American base in the "Al-Omar" oil field resulted from an attack with successive missile salvos that targeted the "Green Village", which the American army uses as a headquarters for its soldiers within the oil field, without any information being received about human losses until the moment.
She pointed out that after the second wave of bombing that targeted the base, the American forces responded to the source of the bombing that targeted it with a number of artillery shells, which fell in the desert of the city of Al-Mayadeen in the Deir ez-Zor countryside, which is under the control of the Syrian army and its supporting forces.
Sputnik, quoting its correspondent, reported that a squadron of suicide drones struck, last Sunday night, the depth of the illegal base taken by the US army in the “Al-Omar” oil field, eastern Syria.
A UN official delivers a report to Zaidan on the structure of the ISIS treasury office
A judicial statement, a copy of which was received by {Al-Furat News}, stated that Zaidan “ received from Richer the report on the structure of the Bait al-Mal office (2014-2017) for ISIS and the main evidence on which the report was based. The
special support team expressed its thanks to the first judge of the First Karkh Investigation Court, Judge Al-Sayyid Ali Hussein Jafat for the support he provided to the team’s investigators in completing the report.
The "administrative and financial official" of ISIS in Iraq was arrested
The Counter-Terrorism Service announced, on Tuesday, the arrest of the so-called “administrative and financial official” of ISIS in Iraq.
The Joint Operations Command said, in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency, that with a qualitative intelligence effort that included monitoring and tracking operations, members of the Counter-Terrorism Service were able to arrest the so-called financial administrative official in (Islamic State Central) after he entered Iraq with forged travel documents and documents. To resume his terrorist activity in Iraq.
She added that the intelligence effort of the Counter-Terrorism Service continues operations to dismantle and destroy the remnants of ISIS gang networks and thwart their terrorist plans so that our Iraq can enjoy security and stability, according to the statement.
With the move to "end the international coalition"... What is the level of danger of ISIS in Iraq now?
An American press report, today, Tuesday (February 13, 2024), discussed the extent of the danger of ISIS on the ground in Iraq and the type and possibility of its growth in the event that American forces leave Iraq.
The discussions of the Iraqi-American Supreme Military Committee meeting, regarding the international coalition’s mission, focus on ISIS and the threat it poses on the ground, amid questions about the size of the organization’s presence in Iraq, and whether it is capable of “rebuilding” as happened after the American withdrawal in 2011.
He explained that the meeting of the Supreme Military Committee in Baghdad, on Sunday, is another important step on the path to moving from the mission of the military coalition to what the American military presence will look like, and the bilateral relationship between the United States and Iraq.
He pointed out that the committee meetings discuss three points: assessing the threat posed by ISIS, the capabilities of Iraqi forces, and operational conditions on the ground.
How is he active in Iraq?
Back in the day, after ISIS rose in 2014 and took control of about a third of Iraqi territory, Washington established an international coalition to support the Iraqi forces and the Kurdish forces in Syria.
Despite its defeat in 2017 in Iraq, the organization still claims attacks from time to time, and in return, the coalition remains active to prevent its rise again, even though Baghdad announced in 2021 “the end of combat missions.”
The international coalition currently includes about 2,500 American military personnel, and about 1,000 from its member states, deployed in military bases under the command of Iraqi forces.
Although the Iraqi demand to end its mission on the ground is not new, it has begun to resonate more widely amid existing tensions between the United States and groups supported by Iran.
The Iraqi security expert and researcher in the affairs of terrorist groups, Fadel Abu Ragheef, points out that “ISIS is still effective and active in Iraq,” and says that it is “weakening, but not dead, fading, and declining.”
ISIS is currently present on the ground in the form of “detachments and families consisting of limited numbers, small and ferocious at the same time,” posing a great danger in the areas confined between Kirkuk and Salah al-Din in the north of the country.
The security expert explains to Al-Hurra website that the main concentration points are linked to three valleys “considered the most dangerous in the world and not just in Iraq,” namely Zghitoun, Al-Shay, and Wadi Abu Khanajer.
Abu Ragheef adds that the terrorist organization's presence is also withdrawing to "the Mama Heights northwest of Kirkuk and the Badush and Sheikh Yunus Heights in Nineveh."
It is also found in vast abandoned areas in Anbar Governorate, which constitutes a third of Iraq's area, i.e. more than 138 thousand square kilometers.
He also has hidden activities within caves in the Husseiniyat area within Wadi Houran, west of Anbar, according to researcher Abu Ragheef.
Hassan Abu Haniyeh, a researcher in the affairs of extremist groups, explains that the leadership of ISIS is still Iraqi and is present in several former provinces of Kirkuk, Salah al-Din, Diyala, and Anbar.
It is true that he lost spatial control over the land. Abu Haniyeh told Al-Hurra website that his activity shifted to the security aspect, and the same applies to the form of “states” and the transition from “centralization to decentralization.”
"Between two scales"
Despite the significant decline in ISIS leaders and the decline in its activities in the main conflict areas, most notably Iraq, the risk of its resurgence still exists, according to the United Nations.
It explained in a briefing to its Secretary-General to the Security Council last year that “the terrorist group adapted its strategy as its members mixed with the local population, and became cautious in choosing battles that were likely to lead to limited losses.”
Regarding Iraq, the United Nations indicates that ISIS is divided in the country into 8 units: administration, media, Sharia, procurement, finance, basic business, manufacturing explosives, and releasing prisoners, distributed among 10 Iraqi regional divisions.
She adds that the group has become increasingly reluctant to take risks for fear of losing its members, while it plans to release its prisoners and recruit individuals from vulnerable communities.
Researcher Abu Haniyeh confirms that "the measure of the organization's strength now and looking at it as it was in 2014 to evaluate its status now is considered wrong."
He says that "it must be dealt with as arising from a system and an imbalance in the components, specifically Sunni Islam, the emergence of sectarianism" and the American presence.
Since 2011, ISIS has been investing in crises without creating them, as Abu Haniyeh points out.
He explains: “Before he appeared strongly after the American withdrawal in 2011 and the beginning of 2012, he had about 700 fighters in Iraq. Now, according to estimates, he has from 3,000 to 5,000 and maintains funds... Therefore, he may return again and impose a state of spatial control.”
Iraqi security researcher Abu Ragheef adds, "ISIS in Iraq has succeeded over the past years in adapting to the difficult environment."
He says that he "will not be able to move unless he has elements, the most important of which are: loose security areas and the presence of a loophole as a result of the weak security arrangement."
However, the researcher believes that “the Iraqi intelligence service recently succeeded in infiltrating the organization, curbing its activity, and knowing its numbers, organization, and structures,” without this removing the need for coalition aircraft and international efforts.
What if the coalition withdraws?
For years, the international coalition has been conducting “logistical operations, training and bombing on ISIS sites, based on information coming from Iraq or from intelligence services,” says Mujahid Al-Sumaidaie, a researcher at the European Center for Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Studies.
He added to Al-Hurra website: “If Iraq wants to end its presence, it must prepare to fill the void, that is, deploy forces capable of providing logistical support, confronting terrorism, and bombing sites.”
He must "be able to collect information and intelligence efforts in the battle against the organization," according to the researcher, who adds: "Otherwise, the result will be tragic, as happened in 2011 when American forces left, and terrorism spread until the country collapsed in 2013."
Security expert Abu Ragheef believes that the ongoing talks “may reach the point of exchanging the coalition’s accumulated information about ISIS.”
It is unlikely that "the coalition will keep information for itself, considering that radical organizations pose a threat to international peace and not just Iraq."
Abu Ragheef believes that “ISIS cannot return to its previous era, that is, the state of empowerment,” and adds that “it will remain opportunistic and exploit any loophole to carry out operations only.”
But researcher Abu Haniyeh believes that “return is possible,” and “the greatest evidence of this is what happened after the American withdrawal in 2011.”
He says: "Once Washington withdrew, and within a short period, the organization was able to rebuild itself and take control of the land."
At the present time, although the Iraqi “Counter-Terrorism Service” is carrying out operations on the ground, the researcher does not believe that it “possesses the capabilities and technologies that the international coalition and the United States have in terms of drones, training, and intelligence information.”
Abu Haniyeh asserts that "the organization is capable of rebuilding, and it must now be compared to what it was in 2011 upon the American withdrawal," suggesting that its activity would be if it returned forcefully from Syria to Iraq, and not vice versa, as happened when it declared the so-called "caliphate."
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