Analysis detailing the reasons for the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar over 21 years
The "Iraq Al-Mustaqbal" Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations attributed, on Friday, the reasons for the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dinar against the US dollar in the parallel market over more than two decades in the country to internal and external factors.
This came according to an analysis issued by the institution, in which it explained these fluctuations from 2005 until 2024.
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The institution stated in its analysis that "the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in the parallel market witnessed noticeable fluctuations over the course of 21 years, as it was affected by a group of factors ranging from political, legislative and economic."
The analysis added that "supply and demand were the most influential, as the patterns of exchange rate changes differed according to the months of the year as a result of internal and external factors, such as the timing of the launch of the general budget and official holidays in major countries exporting goods to Iraq, such as China and Iran."
He pointed out that "by analyzing the exchange rate data in the parallel market from 2005 to 2024, there appears to be a recurring pattern that reflects the dinar's value being affected by specific months more than others."
According to the institution, “December was the month with the most frequent increase in the value of the dinar, as it witnessed a decline in 13 years out of 21 years, followed by: August and June with increases in the value of the dinar against the dollar in 11 years, then April 10 times, while October and November witnessed an increase 9 times, and March 8 times.”
May was the month with the least frequent decline in the value of the dinar, as its value rose only 4 times during the period studied, which gives a semi-impression that the prices of the dinar against the dollar rise in the months of February, March and April, then decline again against the dollar in May as a result of the strong return of demand in May.
The institution warned in its analysis that "despite this clear seasonal impact on the exchange rate, there are other factors that cannot be ignored, such as the levels of dollar sales by the Central Bank of Iraq, which directly affect the size of the money supply in the market, as well as political and financial factors such as the timing of the release of general budget funds, in addition to geopolitical situations that may cause sudden disturbances in the demand for foreign currency."
The analysis concluded that “the seasonal effect remains one of the main elements in determining the exchange rate trends in Iraq, as a recurring pattern appears at the end of the year and the beginning of the fiscal year, in addition to being affected by official holiday periods in countries exporting goods to Iraq. However, other factors, such as monetary policies and political and economic developments, remain a direct influence on the parallel market, which makes it necessary to monitor all these variables to understand exchange rate changes more accurately.”
From Safe Internet to Smart Systems" Iraq Enters the Digital Revolution Era with Steady Steps
Saleh explained to {Euphrates News} agency, "The most prominent of these foundations is the progress achieved in two types of infrastructure."
He explained that "the first category is represented by the advanced technological infrastructure, whether through secure and strong internet networks or digital payment systems that work effectively and efficiently in parallel with each other."
Saleh continued, "As for the other category, it is the advanced legal infrastructure that provides protection for the rights of users, operators, and the public right against electronic and financial crimes arising from the digital transformation."
He pointed out "the importance of having the ability to keep pace with the developments of digital technology in the virtual world on an ongoing basis," indicating that "the advisory team in the General Secretariat and all relevant Iraqi state institutions are keen to achieve this to ensure that Iraq enters the new digital age."
Reasons for stopping cash withdrawals outside Iraq by TBI
Today , Friday (February 28, 2025), banking and financial affairs specialist Ahmed Abdul Rabbo revealed the reasons for stopping cash withdrawals outside Iraq by the Trade Bank of Iraq.
“There is a strong possibility that the decision is related to combating currency smuggling, as the Central Bank of Iraq and financial institutions have previously taken similar measures to limit the exit of the dollar through unofficial means,” Abdul Rabbo told Baghdad Today. He explained that “some parties were using electronic payment cards to withdraw cash from abroad with money purchased at the official exchange rate inside Iraq, then reselling it at higher prices in the parallel market, which constitutes a type of currency smuggling.”
He explained that "there is a strong possibility that the decision came in response to American pressures related to regulating dollar flows and preventing its smuggling to countries subject to American sanctions, such as Iran. Washington has imposed strict restrictions on Iraqi banks in recent periods, and asked the Central Bank of Iraq to take strict measures to control financial transfers, especially after detecting currency smuggling operations through the use of electronic payment cards."
He added that "the decision appears to have come as part of broader measures to control the banking sector and prevent the misuse of the dollar, and is an extension of previous measures imposed by the Central Bank, either in response to American pressure or as part of efforts to combat financial corruption and smuggling."
Yesterday, Wednesday, the Trade Bank of Iraq announced the suspension of cash withdrawals via ATMs outside Iraq.
The bank's media advisor, Aqil Al-Shuwaili, said in a brief statement, "Due to the risks resulting from the misuse of electronic cards (Visa and MasterCard), and to avoid these risks, cash withdrawals via ATM machines for these cards outside Iraq only have been stopped."
He added, "Cards can be used to pay through POS machines and online."
Within hours... the region's oil will be re-exported through SOMO
The Ministry of Oil announced today, Friday, that the coming hours will witness the re-export of Kurdistan Region oil through the State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO).
"Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Minister of Oil, Eng. Hayan Abdul-Ghani Al-Sawad, is visiting Khor Al-Zubair port to see the gas pipeline connection operations," she said in a statement.
The minister confirmed, according to the statement, that “Iraq will announce in the coming hours the commencement of the region’s oil export operations through the State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) via the Turkish port of Ceyhan at an initial rate of 185,000 barrels, gradually increasing to reach the capacity specified in the general federal budget.”
No oil flow until payment guarantees secured, APIKUR says
Eight international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region announced on Friday that they will not resume oil exports through Turkiye’s Ceyhan port, despite Baghdad’s declaration that shipments would restart soon.
The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR), which represents 60% of the Region’s oil production, stated that no formal communication had been received regarding commercial agreements or payment guarantees for past and future exports.
"To clarify, APIKUR member companies will not resume oil exports today," said Miles Caggins, APIKUR’s spokesperson.
APIKUR’s members include Gulf Keystone Petroleum, DNO, Genel Energy, and Shamaran Petroleum, all key operators in the Kurdistan Region’s oil sector.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs and Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced that Kurdistan’s oil exports via Ceyhan would resume "within hours." Speaking during a visit to Khor Al-Zubair port to oversee gas pipeline operations, he stated that initial shipments would start at 185,000 barrels per day and gradually increase to meet federal budget allocations.
This is logo posted on Joe WIlson's Twitter page
Iraqi opposition lobbies in America: Joe Wilson and the Mega campaign as an example - Urgent
In recent years, Iraqi lobby groups have become active in the United States, seeking to influence American decision-makers regarding policies towards Iraq. These lobbies are divided between supporters of the current Iraqi government and opponents who seek to change the political system in Baghdad. Among the American figures who adopt this approach, Senator Joe Wilson stands out, who recently launched a political campaign called "MEGA", targeting what he called "liberating Iraq from Iran", which sparked widespread controversy in American and Iraqi circles.
Joe Wilson and the Mega Campaign
US Senator Joe Wilson, known for his controversial positions, announced the launch of a campaign called "MEGA", in direct imitation of former US President Donald Trump's "MAGA" (Make America Great Again) campaign. Wilson's campaign, according to what he posted on his account on the X platform, aims to "support the Iraqi people to make Iraq great again", in reference to the October 2019 protests, which he described as "a non-sectarian movement abandoned by US President Joe Biden."
The statements come as part of a series of recent posts by Wilson, which, according to Fox News, included "direct threats" calling for action inside Iraq to bring about political change.
Controversy and American Reactions
Wilson's statements and his new campaign faced sharp reactions from American commentators on social media platforms, with some criticizing him, saying that "American politicians should focus on their internal issues instead of interfering in Iraq's affairs."
The campaign also angered some American political circles, as some considered it an "irresponsible attempt to reignite chaos" in a country suffering from major political and security complications.
Iraqi Lobbies in Washington and Their Influence
Wilson’s campaign is part of a broader landscape of Iraqi lobby groups active in Washington, working to influence US policy toward Baghdad. These groups can be divided into:
1. Groups loyal to the Iraqi government: working to strengthen relations between Baghdad and Washington, and defending the Iraqi government in the face of American pressure.
2. Opposition lobbies: consisting of former Iraqi politicians, activists, and some American figures who see the need to change the Iraqi political system, and demand stricter American measures towards Baghdad, such as imposing sanctions or supporting protest movements.
3. Kurdish lobbies: seeking to maintain Washington’s support for the Kurdistan Region, especially with regard to the oil file and relations with Türkiye and Iran.
Iraq is strongly present in American politics
Joe Wilson’s “MEGA” campaign reflects a growing trend among some American politicians toward intervening in Iraqi affairs, whether by supporting protests or demanding broad political changes. Despite the criticism he has faced, these moves reflect the continued influence of Iraqi lobbies in Washington, whether from the Iraqi government or its opponents, making Iraq a strongly present issue in American politics, despite the passage of more than two decades since the American invasion.
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