Final warning and "immediate implementation".. Washington draws red lines for Baghdad: No more leniency
In light of the rapid changes witnessed by US policy towards the Middle East, the call between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio came to redraw the features of the relationship between Baghdad and Washington according to a more stringent equation.
The video for this MY FX Buddies Blogpost is below here:
The call carried clear messages, not just diplomatic recommendations but rather binding commitments that Baghdad had previously pledged but without real implementation.
Implement immediately
According to Washington-based politician Nizar Haidar, this call reflects a shift in the US administration’s approach, as there is no longer room for leniency as was the case under former President Joe Biden, but rather strict expectations from President Donald Trump to implement obligations immediately, especially with regard to sanctions imposed on Iran and control of arms outside the state’s authority. Can Iraq maneuver, or will US pressure force decisive decisions in the coming period?
Washington Decides Its Position: No More Compromise
Nizar Haidar explained in his interview with Baghdad Today that "what the US Secretary of State conveyed to Al-Sudani were not just diplomatic messages, but rather a final timetable for implementing Iraq's obligations, especially in the files of sanctions on Iran and restricting weapons to the state."
He stressed that the Biden administration had shown flexibility in dealing with Iraq due to its preoccupation with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but the Trump administration is adopting a different approach. He added: “If President Trump does not compliment his closest allies such as Canada and Europe, how can Al-Sudani and the leaders of the Coordination Framework expect him to be lenient on Iraq’s obligations?”
According to American sources, the Trump administration believes that Iraq’s continued economic dealings with Iran, especially with regard to oil, gas and financial transactions, constitute a direct violation of American sanctions. Therefore, the US Secretary of State was firm in his demand that Al-Sudani immediately commit to these commitments, and rejected any proposal for a new timetable.
Iraq between the hammer of sanctions and the anvil of national security
American political analyst Michael Rubin believes that the US administration will not be satisfied with diplomatic demands, but will resort to additional means of pressure if Iraq continues to procrastinate. Speaking to the Washington Post, Rubin indicated that “sanctions on the movement of the dollar and oil will directly affect the Iraqi economy, and if Baghdad fails to control smuggling and money laundering, Iraq may find itself in a critical economic situation in the coming months.”
Nizar Haidar stressed that "the Trump administration will not hesitate to impose individual sanctions on Iraqi officials if they are found to be facilitating the violation of sanctions on Iran," noting that Congress is already discussing proposals to tighten oversight of financial aid provided to Iraq, which amounted to $12 billion over the past decade.
Weapons outside the authority of the state: a possible confrontation?
In addition to the economic file, the issue of loose weapons was present in the call between Al-Sudani and Rubio, as Washington stressed the need to dismantle the armed groups that carried out attacks on American facilities over the past years.
“Washington views the groups that have carried out 170 attacks on US facilities in Iraq and Syria as a direct threat to its national security,” says John Alterman, a security researcher at the Washington Institute. “If al-Sudani does not act to rein in these groups, the United States may take unilateral steps that include targeting these groups militarily or imposing direct sanctions on their leaders.”
This position seems to be in line with efforts within Congress to enact a new law that could place some Iraqi entities and figures on the terrorism list, which could lead to a dangerous escalation in the relationship between Baghdad and Washington, according to observers.
Between Pressure and Balance: Iraq's Difficult Choices
In light of these developments, Iraq finds itself facing a difficult equation: fully adhering to American conditions may drag it into an internal crisis with some political forces allied with Iran, while ignoring these pressures may expose it to harsh sanctions that will affect its economy and security.
Iraqi political analyst Ihsan Al-Shammari said in a press interview that "Al-Sudani faces a real test: either take bold decisions that sever Iraq's ties with regional issues that bother Washington, or face unprecedented economic and security pressures."
While Baghdad seeks to maintain balanced relations with everyone, it seems that the Trump administration does not recognize the “middle ground” policy, but rather imposes a “with or against” policy, which puts the Iraqi government before critical decisions in the coming period.
Is Iraq betting on time?
It seems that the recent contact between Al-Sudani and Rubio was not just a diplomatic conversation, but rather a final warning from Washington to adhere to previous agreements. Iraq today is not only facing political obligations, but also a complex regional equation that may force it to make quick decisions with ill-considered consequences
From Yesterday FEB 25 25
Al-Sudani discusses with US Secretary of State areas of coordination between Iraq and the new Washington administration
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani received a call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio today, Tuesday (February 25, 2025). The call discussed bilateral relations between Iraq and the United States, with a focus on ways to enhance and develop them in various fields.
According to a statement by the Prime Minister's media office, received by "Baghdad Today", during the conversation, areas of coordination between Iraq and the new US administration were discussed, in addition to frameworks for cooperation within existing bilateral agreements.
According to the statement, the progress made in joint work between the two countries was reviewed, with an agreement to intensify communication and enhance cooperation to achieve common interests.
Due to "diplomatic efforts", Trump's envoy postpones his visit to the region
An informed American source revealed on Tuesday that the visit of US President Donald Trump's envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to the region has been postponed for several days.
Witkov was scheduled to arrive in the region on Wednesday evening, and the source explained that the reason for the postponement is due to the diplomatic efforts made by the Trump administration regarding the Russian-Ukrainian file.
Witkov's visit to the region aims to advance negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of prisoners between Israel and Hamas.
Earlier today, Yedioth Ahronoth quoted an informed source as saying that Witkov had postponed his visit to the region despite his statements in this context during media interviews. The newspaper quoted informed sources as saying that until this moment, "a date has not yet been set for the American envoy's arrival in Israel."
She said that Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is continuing talks with Witkov in an attempt to resolve the crisis created by Israel regarding the release of Palestinian prisoners and the bodies of four Israeli prisoners included in the first phase of the deal.
The newspaper pointed out that the talks deal with the continuation of the prisoner deal, moving to the second phase, and resolving the existing dispute over the release of Palestinian prisoners.
The report added that even if Witkoff arrives in the region, it is still unclear whether he will visit Israel.
The newspaper quoted an informed source as saying that the crisis is still ongoing, but efforts to resolve it are ongoing. Witkoff had announced during a press interview that he intends to visit the region this week to discuss extending the first phase of the deal, which includes the release of some prisoners that Israel describes as "humanitarian cases."
"I'm confident that phase two of the deal will move forward, but first we need to expand phase one, and hopefully we'll have enough time to move to phase two, complete it, return more prisoners, and move forward with the talks , " Witkoff told CNN.
This comes as Israel seeks to extend the first phase of the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas for an additional 42 days, without entering into negotiations on stopping the war on Gaza, according to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation "Kan 11".
To arrange the papers with the Americans.. Revealing the reasons for Al-Kadhimi's return to Baghdad - Urgent
The American network "Divescore" concerned with political analysis revealed today, Tuesday (February 25, 2025), the reasons it said were behind the return of former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to Iraq, stressing that his current return came through an "invitation" directed to him to "exploit" his positive relationship with the Americans.
The network said, according to what was translated by "Baghdad Today", that Al-Kazemi, who enjoys very good relations with the Saudis and Americans, returned to Iraq through an "invitation" extended to him by the current leaders in the Iraqi government, explaining, "The invitation was extended to Al-Kazemi by the Iraqi leaders in an attempt to use his positive relations with the Americans and Saudis to address the economic problems that threaten the stability of Iraq."
She continued, "Al-Kadhimi, who is known for his close relationship with the Americans, has now arrived in Baghdad to work as a link with the Iraqi government in an attempt to improve relations and exploit his knowledge to move Iraq in the seas of economic chaos currently taking place in the region and greatly affecting the stability of the country."
The network pointed out that the economic sanctions that the US administration is threatening to impose on Iraq, especially the banking sector, have now become a "great danger" to Iraqi stability, which called for using Al-Kazemi in the current period, which the network described as "critical" with the approach of the Iraqi elections.
The network's report concluded by stressing that Al-Kadhimi's arrival in Baghdad also carries "political efforts", stressing that "Al-Kadhimi's influence still continues until now inside the country in addition to his influence with the Americans and Saudis, which indicates intentions to bring him back to the political scene again."
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Iraqi News for WED FEB 26 25
Ali Al-Alaq: We are working on creating a digital currency for the Central Bank to gradually replace paper currency
The Governor of the Central Bank, Ali Al-Alaq, revealed today, Wednesday (February 26, 2025), the creation of a digital currency specific to the Central Bank to gradually replace paper currency.
Al-Alaq said in a press conference followed by "Baghdad Today", "The financial and banking system will witness fundamental transformations, including the decline of paper currencies to be replaced by digital payments for central banks."
He added, "The Central Bank is moving to create a digital currency of its own to gradually replace paper currency, as is happening in some central banks in the world."
Al-Alaq confirmed that "we are seriously considering establishing a data center in Iraq, and the bank has begun to move in this regard as part of the digital transformation steps."
Prime Minister: The government was keen to follow the policy of "Iraq Comes First" principle
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said on Wednesday that the government was keen to follow the policy of the principle of “Iraq Comes First”.
The Prime Minister said during a recorded speech during the third Erbil Forum on (the amounting concern about the future of the Middle East), and followed by the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "Open dialogues have become part of our political approach, which enhances state-building and stability, and today we ended the stage of wars and conflicts that we suffered from for years and moved to the stage of peace and stability, and today Iraq is moving confidently towards integration with the international community based on a clear vision based on cooperation and effective partnership with brotherly and friendly countries."
He added: "Our government has been keen during the past two years to follow a policy based on the principle of Iraq first, in which the interest of Iraq and its people is at the top of our priorities, as well as positive interaction with our regional surroundings and the international community, which made Iraq part of dialogue and cooperation and regained its leading role in the region within the approach of productive diplomacy," stressing that "Iraq's openness at the regional and international levels is part of our continuous approach to expanding economic partnerships and benefiting from international experiences to support Iraq's economy."
Al-Sudani continued: "We continue to strengthen cooperation in various fields to ensure sustainable development, and for this we launched the Development Road Project to be an economic, cultural and social bridge, linking Asia with Europe, and we have worked hard to enhance security cooperation and combat terrorism, and we have strong relations with members of the international coalition, led by the United States of America."
He stated: "We are on the cusp of bilateral negotiations with the countries that are members of the international coalition to develop frameworks for cooperation in confronting terrorism to ensure security and stability for Iraq and the region," noting that "the government has worked to find sustainable solutions to the so-called problems between Baghdad and the region and turned them into opportunities for cooperation and integration and bring these issues out of their political framework to their legal context and we look forward to completing the procedures for exporting oil through the port of Ceyhan and opening a new page with companies operating in the region in a way that contributes to Building the Iraqi economy and fairness for citizens in the region by guaranteeing their rights in terms of salaries and entitlements."
After Rubio's call, Al-Sudani discusses investment obstacles with oil companies
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani chaired a meeting today, Wednesday (February 26, 2025), that included representatives of oil companies and subcontractors working on a number of oil projects in Basra Governorate to discuss investment obstacles.
A statement from the Prime Minister's Office, received by "Baghdad Today", stated that "Al-Sudani listened to a detailed explanation of the nature of the work and the most prominent obstacles facing oil companies and subcontractors, especially with regard to projects and licensing contracts."
Al-Sudani directed, "during the meeting, to prepare a detailed study on the obstacles and impediments affecting the workflow, in addition to holding a meeting next week in the presence of representatives of the ministries, concerned authorities, and subcontractors or their representatives."
The statement indicated that "the next meeting will witness a detailed discussion of the most prominent obstacles, and that recommendations and radical solutions will be submitted to the Prime Minister for approval and final treatment."
Yesterday, Tuesday (February 25, 2025), Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani received a call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The call discussed bilateral relations between Iraq and the United States, with a focus on ways to enhance and develop them in various fields.
According to a statement by the Prime Minister's media office, received by "Baghdad Today", during the conversation, areas of coordination between Iraq and the new US administration were discussed, in addition to frameworks for cooperation within existing bilateral agreements.
According to the statement, the progress made in joint work between the two countries was reviewed, with an agreement to intensify communication and enhance cooperation to achieve common interests.
National Bank of Iraq wins the “Excellence Award” from “Citi Bank” in recognition of its outstanding performance
The National Bank of Iraq announced that it won the “Excellence Award” from Citi Bank, in recognition of its exceptional performance in managing incoming and outgoing financial transfers, stressing that this is an achievement that reflects its commitment to the highest standards of quality and transparency in banking services.
This award is a global testament to the bank’s efficiency in implementing financial operations with utmost precision, as it excels in ensuring that transactions are processed according to the highest international standards, while providing the required documents in the correct manner and on time.
This achievement reinforces the position of the National Bank of Iraq as one of the leading banks in the Iraqi banking sector, committed to providing reliable and effective financial solutions that meet the needs of its individual and corporate clients.
Commenting on this achievement, Ayman Abu Dahim, Managing Director of the National Bank of Iraq, expressed his pride and honor in the bank receiving this prestigious award, explaining that receiving this award reflects the bank’s tireless efforts and its firm commitment to providing banking services that are in line with the highest international standards, noting that the National Bank of Iraq believes that innovation and continuous development are the key to success, so it has worked to adopt the latest technologies to ensure the speed and efficiency of financial transfers, which provides its customers with a safe and reliable banking experience.
Abu Dahim praised the efforts made by the bank’s work team at all administrative and functional levels in providing the best banking services and achieving the highest levels of accuracy and transparency, stressing the bank’s commitment to continue developing its operations and strengthening its partnerships with global financial institutions, in a way that ensures the provision of advanced banking solutions that keep pace with the aspirations of our customers and contribute to supporting the national economy.
It is worth noting that the National Bank of Iraq is one of the leading private financial institutions in the Iraqi banking market, as it constantly seeks to provide innovative banking services that meet the needs of customers and enhance their confidence, by providing integrated financial solutions that support individuals and companies, while adhering to the best international practices in the banking sector.
Retirement confirms the imminent completion of the fifth batch of transactions for former army retirees
The General Retirement Authority confirmed on Tuesday that the transactions of the fifth batch of former army retirees from the Diwaniya orders will be completed soon, with the addition of danger allowances.
The Director of Media at the Authority, Alaa Mohammed, said in a statement reported by the official news agency, and reviewed by "Al-Eqtisad News", that "the Prime Minister's visit yesterday to the National Retirement Authority was fruitful and contributed to resolving a number of pending files that required government intervention, including the file of the Gulf War prisoners' entitlements, as the Prime Minister directed to expedite the resolution of their situations and issue orders to refer them to retirement according to the specified entitlements, after verifying their data."
He added, regarding the file of the fifth batch of salaries for former army retirees, that “members of the former army were referred to retirement after the fall of the defunct regime by royal orders dated 9/24/2004, and these orders continued and the last of them was issued in 2014, after which no orders were issued, which prevented some from completing their transactions. Based on the Prime Minister’s directives, a committee was formed to issue new royal orders for these categories, which made it possible to issue these orders at the beginning of 2024, and we are currently working on completing the fifth batch of these orders to transfer them to the National Retirement Authority, to ensure receipt of dues.”
Yesterday, Monday, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani directed the release of the fifth batch of retirement salaries for members of the former Iraqi army, before Eid al-Fitr, and the completion of the sixth batch immediately after it, in order to close this file permanently, as well as disburse the financial differences to the wounded security forces, and form a committee to count the remaining numbers of prisoners of war of 1991 to complete their retirement procedures, as well as send a committee from the Retirement Authority and the Martyrs Foundation to Anbar to resolve the file of retirees of victims of terrorism in Anbar Governorate, after conducting an audit and disbursing the differences of retirees of victims of terrorism in the governorate who passed the audit process, similar to the rest of the governorates.
Banks Association: The Central Bank will launch a platform to facilitate electronic money transfers
The Iraqi Private Banks Association announced today, Wednesday, a new project to facilitate electronic money transfers within Iraq, while pointing to efforts to facilitate money transfers through open banking.
The Executive Director of the Iraqi Private Banks Association, Ali Tariq, said in a statement to the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "The service of transferring electronic financial accounts between banks or cards is currently not available in Iraq, and therefore the Central Bank is working to develop a special platform based on the open banking system, which will greatly facilitate money transfer operations within the country via mobile phones or websites and allow the possibility of transferring money from one bank account to another and from one card to another."
He added that "electronic payment devices are witnessing continuous development, especially with the presence of the national switchboard in the Central Bank of Iraq, although some cards and payment devices still rely on specific systems."
Tariq stressed that "there is a great focus on developing electronic payment systems in Iraq," noting that "the decisions of the Council of Ministers and the Central Bank aim to stimulate the use of electronic payment, and have led to a clear development during the past two years, with expectations of greater growth in the future."
Oil addresses of all companies to confirm 315 contracts
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but this is one translation of the text of the document
Republic of Iraq
Arab Year Company
Ministry of Oil
Administrative and Financial Department
From / 1182
Date 5//2015
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To all companies and institutes
Petroleum Research and Development Center
Oil Cultural Center
Subject / Confirmation of contracts 315
Iraqi Drilling Company D.C.1
And Mr. Prime Minister, take the necessary action) in the letter of God’s office in No. 4772004 to 11/20/2025) regarding what was mentioned in the letter of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, the office of Representative Bassem Naghamish, financial correspondences in No. (2794 on (10/2/2024) regarding the confirmation of contracts of Cabinet Resolution No. from the budget tables for the year / 2015
Please inform us about the availability of the high allocation required to establish them within the budget for the year 2025, and we will receive an answer within a week from the date of this notification. Otherwise, it will be considered that you do not have an answer to what was mentioned in the notification.
Iraqi
Fs Ali Muhammad Sadiq Al-Sadr
Human Resources Life:
41 General Manager General Manager of the Administrative and Financial Department
Imad Matar Muhammad
Associate
Mr. Hayat Financial Security Settings
2/26/2025
Kaz imprisoned the Caliph
Mad Talib, Prime Minister for Energy Affairs, Minister of Oil, your reply. In issue (32810 on 11/3/2024) with appreciation
Office of the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Distribution Affairs His Excellency dated (11/28/2024) filled in the letter of the Office of the Prime Minister, with appreciation
Economic Department, Memorandum of Confidence No. 55, dated 2/17/2025, with appreciation
Administrative and Financial Department Human Resources Management Section / Appointment and Reappointment Division Follow-up with Priorities
Iraq discusses with the International Monetary Fund controlling expenditures and the 2024 budget
The Iraqi Minister of Finance, Taif Sami, discussed with the International Monetary Fund, financial and banking reforms to support the Iraqi economy, during the periodic meetings held in the Jordanian capital, Amman.
The Iraqi Ministry of Finance said in a statement issued today, Wednesday, and received by Shafak News Agency, that the discussions focused on implementing the 2024 budget, with a review of the mechanisms for controlling expenditures and enhancing the efficiency of distributing financial resources, in line with the state's economic goals.
The two parties also discussed, according to the statement, ways to improve public finances by supporting investment and directing social spending towards vital sectors, in addition to enhancing non-oil revenues and reducing dependence on oil revenues.
The meetings also included discussing banking reforms, stressing the importance of updating financial systems to keep pace with global economic changes.
It also reviewed the economic forecast for 2025 and potential strategies to increase non-oil revenues, including developing the tax system and implementing a unified accounting system.
During the meetings, Sami stressed that these meetings come within the framework of the Ministry’s efforts to enhance financial stability and achieve structural reforms that support the national economy, noting the importance of coordination with international partners and considering cooperation with the International Monetary Fund as a fundamental pillar in developing financial policies to confront current challenges.
A different version
In support of the economy, the Minister of Finance discusses banking reforms with the International Monetary Fund
link
Today, Wednesday, Finance Minister Taif Sami discussed with the International Monetary Fund financial and banking reforms to support the Iraqi economy.
The ministry said in a statement followed by Al-Masry, “In a step that reflects the depth of regional economic cooperation, Minister of Finance Taif Sami participated in the meetings of the International Monetary Fund held in the Jordanian capital, Amman, which comes within the framework of periodic consultations with the Fund.”
She added that the Minister of Finance “discussed several basic strategic axes during the meetings, including the implementation of the 2024 budget,” where “plans for its implementation were reviewed with a focus on controlling expenditures and enhancing the efficiency of distributing financial resources in line with the state’s economic goals. Ways to improve public finances were also discussed by enhancing investment opportunities, directing social spending towards vital sectors, in addition to supporting non-oil funds to reduce dependence on oil revenues.”
The meetings discussed, according to the statement, “developments in the field of banking reforms, highlighting the importance of updating financial systems to keep pace with global economic changes, in addition to discussing expectations of the economic situation during 2025, while reviewing potential strategies to increase non-oil revenues, including issues of tax identification and adopting a unified accounting system.”
The Minister of Finance explained that “these meetings come within the context of the Ministry’s ongoing efforts to enhance financial stability and achieve structural reforms that ensure the growth of the national economy.” She pointed out the importance of close coordination with regional and international development partners, noting that “cooperation with the IMF team is the cornerstone for developing financial policies in line with current challenges.”
The statement indicated that “these meetings come as a strategic step within the efforts made to reform the financial and banking sector in Iraq, with the aim of enhancing financial stability and supporting economic growth. These meetings are expected to result in new financial policies that focus on diversifying sources of public revenue, developing the banking system, and improving spending efficiency in line with global economic changes, which contributes to enhancing the flexibility of the Iraqi economy and increasing its ability to face financial challenges.”
Washington tightens the financial noose on Baghdad: Messages and goals
Iraqi-American relations are witnessing rapid developments that reflect a new phase of economic pressures through which Washington seeks to redraw regional balances, with a focus on reducing Iranian influence in Iraq.
The United States recently imposed sanctions on Iraqi banks, reflecting a clear strategy aimed at tightening control over the flow of funds and preventing them from reaching Tehran, which relies heavily on the Iraqi economy as a vital outlet in light of increasing Western sanctions.
Shakhwan Abdullah, the second deputy speaker of the Iraqi parliament, confirmed that “the US administration may take new political and economic decisions regarding Iraq,” noting that this file was the subject of extensive discussions with the federal government.
These statements came in the context of increasing indications that Washington is not aiming to change the Iraqi political class as much as it is seeking to limit Iranian influence, which it believes has come to control the joints of the Iraqi economy and politics to a large extent.
Washington's sanctions on Iraqi banks have restricted Iraq's access to global financial markets, complicating import and export operations and directly affecting economic stability.
Baghdad relies primarily on the US dollar in its financial transactions, and imposing any restrictions on the Iraqi banking system means market disruption and increased pressure on the Iraqi government to secure its cash needs, especially since Iraq imports a large percentage of its basic needs, including food and industrial equipment, in US dollars.
The US administration has realized that economic pressure is an effective way to influence Baghdad without the need for direct intervention. Washington has followed this approach before in other countries, where it used banking sanctions as a tool to weaken Iran’s regional influence, and now it is applying the same approach with Iraq, based on a growing conviction that Baghdad has become an extension of Iranian influence in the region.
Shakhwan Abdullah's visit to Washington did not come out of nowhere, but rather reflected American efforts to convey clear messages to the Iraqi side, stating that the sanctions will not stop at this point, and that the next stage may witness more measures targeting the Iraqi financial structure.
This coincides with the escalation of political tensions inside Iraq, as the government faces major challenges in achieving a balance between the requirements of the relationship with Washington on the one hand, and regional and international obligations on the other.
The US administration has not announced additional details about its future plans regarding Iraq, but current indicators suggest that economic pressures will continue, and may take more influential forms, especially if Baghdad continues to pursue policies that are not in line with US interests.
Russia-Ukraine War Ends: Will Iraq Pay the Price for Trump’s Focus on Iran?
The world is awaiting developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, with expectations that it will soon end. This highlights potential impacts on Iraq in light of American trends under the leadership of President Donald Trump.
Analysts believe that Trump seeks to end major international conflicts, including this war, in order to direct his focus towards the Iranian nuclear and regional file.
This trend is considered a strategic shift that may put Iraq in a new circle of pressure, especially with its close economic and political relations with Tehran. How will Baghdad be affected by this scenario?
Experts expect Trump to pressure Iraq to reduce its dealings with Iran, linking this to possible sanctions if Iranian influence in the country remains unchanged. Estimates indicate that the United States may use economic and military tools to achieve this goal, taking advantage of the stability of the situation in Ukraine to devote its efforts to the Iranian file.
It seems that the pro-Iranian factions in Iraq will not be immune to these plans, as they may be subjected to direct or indirect pressure to limit their activity.
This analysis confirms that Trump aims to arrange international priorities to ensure stronger American hegemony in the Middle East.
Oil prices have recently stabilized at levels ranging between $70 and $75 per barrel, with investors attributing this to cautious optimism that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end.
Observers link this stability to Trump's plans to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan fields, which have been halted since March 2023 due to legal disputes with the federal government in Baghdad.
The move is seen as part of a US strategy to consolidate oil resources under its control, which could be used as an economic pressure tool on Iran. This is supported by statements by former US officials who have referred to Trump’s intention to control Kurdistan’s oil as an “easy” step to strangle Tehran.
Economists warn that an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war could lead to a 15-20% drop in oil prices, as a result of the return of full Russian supplies to global markets. This directly affects Iraq, which relies on oil for more than 90% of its public revenues, with revenues amounting to about $130 billion in 2022 when prices were high.
Analysts believe that the decline in prices will weaken the Iraqi economy, making the country more vulnerable to US pressure to change its policies towards Iran. The question here is: Will Baghdad be able to strike a balance between its national interests and Washington’s demands?
Observers believe that Trump plans to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, whether through tough negotiations or military options such as bombing, after the situation in Ukraine stabilizes. This is evident in his previous statements during his 2024 election campaign, where he promised to “end the wars” to focus on “the major threats.” This escalation is likely to include targeting Iran’s allies in the region, including Iraq, where the Popular Mobilization Forces and other armed factions are active. This suggests that Iraq may find itself facing a difficult equation: either comply with Trump or face severe economic and political consequences.
Trump appears to be adopting a pragmatic approach that combines military decisiveness with economic pressure to achieve his goals. His history of dealing with Iran, such as the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, shows his willingness to take bold risks. This confirms that Iraq could become an arena for indirect conflict, where Washington will try to isolate it from Tehran at all costs. However, Trump may face internal challenges in Iraq, where the Popular Mobilization Forces have strong popular and political support, which could complicate his plans.
Iraq's ability to balance between Iran and the United States remains a crucial factor in the country's stability in the coming period.
Iraq between Washington and Tehran: Will it achieve its independence or become an arena of conflict?
In a new step towards strengthening relations between Iraq and the United States, Secretary Marco Rubio announced talks with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, where a number of sensitive political and economic issues were discussed.
The statement issued by the US State Department was not just a traditional presentation of bilateral relations, but rather raised many questions about the future directions of Iraqi policy and the impact of Iranian influence on the stability of the region.
Iran: The Internal and External Enemy
One of the interesting points in the statement was the discussion of Iranian influence in Iraq, a topic that has long been a source of controversy in Iraqi and international political circles. Iranian influence in Iraq is a complex issue, especially after years of military and political interference by Tehran. Some see an agreement between the Iraqi government and Iran on several issues, while others believe that Iraq has become an arena for regional conflict because of this influence.
The emphasis by both sides, Iraqi and American, on the need to limit Iran’s malign influence raises questions about whether Iraq actually has the ability to achieve energy independence or if trade relations with the United States are merely a political tactic to push Iran to apply more pressure.
Iraq's energy independence: illusion or reality?
Iraq’s energy independence is a long-sought goal for officials in Baghdad, but is it achievable given its heavy reliance on Iran for gas and electricity supplies? The agreement to resume operations of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline could be a step in that direction, but what about the regional and international pressures that could prevent this move?
Talking about American commercial investments in Iraq is another controversial element, especially since American companies operate in an environment full of challenges, most notably corruption and security threats practiced by regional actors. But the most important question here is: Will American investments in Iraq be a real solution to the problems of the Iraqi economy, or are they merely a tool in the hands of the United States to expand its influence in the region?
US Strategy: Pressure on Iraq or Real Partnership?
Talk of Iraq as a supporter of American interests in the region may be more urgent than ever. As the United States seeks to achieve strategic goals, including limiting Iran’s influence, is Iraq merely a tool in this strategy or will it actually achieve the political and economic independence it desires?
It is also important to ask about the geopolitical implications that these pressures might have on Iraq. Under the current circumstances, will the United States succeed in implementing an independent policy for Iraq away from the intertwined regional axes, or will Iraq remain at the crossroads of major powers, from Iran to America?
Conclusion: Is Iraq able to influence its destiny?
Marco Rubio’s talks with Mohammed Shia al-Sudani may mark the beginning of a major diplomatic move that will shape Iraqi politics in the coming years. But, ultimately, the most important question remains: Is Iraq capable of achieving its political and economic independence in the face of these growing regional and international challenges?
It is clear that Iranian influence will be the biggest factor that Iraq will have to confront in the coming years, and the real test will remain the ability to achieve a balance between its internal and external interests without slipping into dependence on any external party, whether Iran or the United States.
Trade Bank of Iraq stops cash withdrawals via ATMs outside Iraq
The bank explained, in a statement received by {Al Furat News} a copy of it, that: "The decision only includes cash withdrawals from ATMs outside Iraq, while users can continue to use cards to pay via POS devices or in electronic transactions on the Internet."
The bank pointed out that "this measure comes out of concern for protecting customers' money from any security threats that may result from misuse of cards in some areas."
Iraqi PM seeks ‘new page’ with oil companies operating in Kurdistan
he gave this speech via video
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani said on Wednesday that Baghdad wants to open a “new page” with the international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region as the two-year suspension of Erbil’s oil exports appears to come to an end soon.
The Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Sunday struck an agreement with Baghdad to restart the Kurdistan Region's long-anticipated oil exports after the Iraqi government confirmed the completion of procedures. This came after the federal parliament approved an amendment to the budget law, increasing the fee of oil companies operating in the Kurdish region.
“After passing the amendment to the budget law, we now look forward to completing the procedures for exporting crude oil to the port of Ceyhan and opening a new page with companies operating in the region, which contributes to building the Iraqi economy and doing justice to citizens in the Kurdistan region by ensuring they receive all their rights in terms of salaries and entitlements,” Sudani said in a video message directed to Erbil Forum in Erbil on Wednesday.
The three-day event is organized by Rudaw Media Network.
Oil exports from the Kurdistan Region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline were suspended in March 2023 after a Paris-based arbitration court ruled in favor of Baghdad against Ankara, saying the latter had violated a 1973 pipeline agreement by allowing Erbil to begin independent oil exports in 2014.
Before the suspension, Erbil was exporting approximately 400,000 barrels of oil per day via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, in addition to around 75,000 barrels of oil from Kirkuk.
Sudani also said that his cabinet has “worked to find sustainable solutions to what were called the outstanding issues between Baghdad and Erbil, and we have transformed them into future opportunities for cooperation and integration,” noting that they have “managed to remove these issues from their political framework to their legal context.”
Sudani emphasized Iraq's commitment to expanding economic partnerships and leveraging international expertise to strengthen the national economy.
"Iraq's openness at both regional and international levels is part of our ongoing approach," he stated, highlighting that cooperation is not confined to any single entity but extends to all global partners.
As part of this strategy, Sudani underscored the importance of the Development Road project, designed to serve as an economic, cultural, and social bridge linking Asia to Europe, facilitating trade and sustainable development.
The Development Road project is being advertised as something that will reshape Iraq’s economy, but it has been a source of friction between Baghdad and the KRG, which has been unhappy that no Kurdistan Region highways or rail links are included in the main corridor and is worried it will not benefit economically.
The project has Erbil’s “complete support,” Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani said in Baghdad on Saturday, despite objections that it bypasses the Kurdistan Region.
Sudani also touched on the developments in the Middle East, saying the region is going through “major transformations unlike any we have witnessed in decades.”
He added that Gaza and Lebanon, which have been devastated by Israel’s war with pro-Iran armed groups, “have experienced a harsh war waged by the occupation forces of the usurping entity, targeting all aspects of life.”
Iraq has been a staunch supporter of Gaza and Lebanon but has tried to avoid being dragged into the conflict.
“We have worked hard to spare Iraq from the fire of this war, in addition to being keen to support our brothers in Lebanon and Palestine with aid and advocacy in all forums we attended, calling for the necessity of ending the war,” Sudani said.
He noted that Iraq also is in favor of restoring security and stability in neighboring Syria, adding that they believe in the “unity of destiny and the necessity of strengthening Arab and regional solidarity.
Mazhar Saleh stresses the importance of electronic payment in the digital transformation in Iraq
He added in his statement to {Al Furat News}, that "electronic payment contributes to reducing the size of the informal economy, as it still constitutes about 70% of the operations of the Iraqi market, and it also enhances transparency in financial transactions and increases citizens' confidence in the banking system."
He explained that "the adoption of electronic payment contributes significantly to reducing traditional cash transactions, which helps combat corruption and money laundering. It also contributes to accelerating commercial operations and the capital cycle in the Iraqi market, and enhances the integration of the national income cycle."
Saleh pointed out that "digital transformation leads to improving the management of the state's financial resources, which enhances its ability to collect taxes and fees more efficiently."
He added, "This contributes to reaching advanced levels of growth in building the unified treasury account, which enables the banking system to operate credit and grant loans with the least amount of banking liquidity risks, which effectively enhances the financing of economic and development activity."
Parliamentary Finance: Digital transformation in banks is progressing at an accelerating pace
The Parliamentary Finance Committee confirmed, on Wednesday, its keenness to support the banking system in Iraq and legislate laws that serve it, noting that the digital transformation in banks is proceeding at an increasing pace.
Member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Moeen Al-Kazemi, said in a speech during the ninth annual exhibition and conference on finance and banking services in Iraq, which was attended by "Al-Eqtisad News", that "the Finance Committee keeps pace with the work of banks inside Iraq, headed by the Central Bank, which sponsors and follows up on private and government banks to perform their role in the best possible way," noting that "the Finance Committee is keen to support the banking system and establish all legislation and laws that serve this sector."
He added, "We hope that the ninth annual conference on finance and banking services in Iraq will come out with useful outcomes," indicating that "the goal is to strengthen the banking system after a period of previous procrastination that has been addressed," expressing his hope that the banking system will develop for the better.
He stressed that "the digital transformation in banks is proceeding at an accelerating pace, according to the chart and figures," noting that "banks must have a role in the economic development aspect of the country by supporting projects."
Al-Kazemi continued that "the Finance Committee looks forward to a significant percentage of imports, which amounted to $80 billion for the year 2024, being directed to importing lines “Productivity, not just consumption.”
He explained that “the Finance Committee welcomes the outcomes of the conference, and is ready to keep pace with them and legislate the necessary laws, and provide support and assistance to implement the conference’s decisions, in a manner consistent with the economic movement in the country, as the state produces approximately $125 billion annually in oil and non-oil revenues, in addition to the private sector’s gross domestic product, which provides a large amount of cash liquidity that allows the banking system to play a role in regulating the financial movement.”
It will not be on the "losing team".. Iraq moves to the post-Iran phase
An American report shed light on the attempts that Iraq is facing to get out of the "Iranian orbit" and the "axis of resistance", which took Iran years to build in order to expand its influence deep into the Arab world, but it is rapidly shrinking and could collapse overnight.
A report by the American magazine "The Atlantic", translated by Shafaq News Agency, explained that "the axis of resistance has deteriorated during the past year from its formal rise to a stage of final decline, as Israel struck two of its main members, Hamas and Hezbollah, the regime of Bashar al-Assad fell, and the Lebanese parliament elected a new president and a new prime minister, who are not on friendly terms with the axis."
The report stated that until recently, Iran boasted that it controlled four Arab capitals: Damascus, Beirut, Sanaa, and Baghdad, but now the first two have slipped away, while the third is still under the control of the Houthis, who are still loyal to Tehran. But what about the fourth, Baghdad?
absolute control
In this regard, the American report saw that the degree of Tehran's control over Baghdad is always changing, as the Iraqi parties loyal to Tehran cannot form a government on their own, and are forced to form coalitions with other parties, including those dominated by the Kurds and Sunnis, who have limited ideological ties to the "axis", adding that even among the Shiites, the pro-Tehran position has become a matter of intense controversy, especially after the balance of power in the region shifted away from Iran.
He pointed out that the forces loyal to Iran organized violent clashes in the streets, and were able to obstruct this through religious and parliamentary maneuvers, so Muhammad Shia al-Sudani took over the prime ministership in October 2022, which was described as an “Iranian victory,” for reasons including that the prime minister who replaced al-Sudani was Mustafa al-Kadhimi, whom the report described as the first non-Islamic ruler of Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and that al-Kadhimi had restored Iraqi relations with Sunni powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, and even established excellent relations with Iran and encouraged the restoration of diplomatic relations between the Iranians and Saudis.
However, the American report warned that Tehran's control over Baghdad is not completely secure, as Al-Sudani relies on the support of parties loyal to Tehran, but he continued to follow a large part of Al-Kazemi's regional agenda to strengthen relations with Arab countries.
The losing team
The report considered that there are many issues that cause division among Iraqis, but there is one issue that unites many of them, which is that they do not want Iraq to turn into a battlefield for Iran’s conflicts with the United States and Israel, indicating that in light of the decline in the fortunes of the Tehran axis, these Iraqis do not want to be on the losing team in the region.
The report indicated that many Iraqis are now publicly demanding the dissolution of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which the report described as "the main tool of Iranian interference in Iraq," noting that members of the Iraqi government say that with the defeat of ISIS, the presence of the Popular Mobilization Forces is no longer necessary.
In this context, the report mentioned the recent statements of the Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein that he hopes “we will be able to convince the leaders of these groups to lay down their weapons, and that two or three years ago, it was impossible to discuss this issue in our society.” It also mentioned the recent statements of Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr in which he pointed out the necessity of limiting the carrying of weapons to the state’s security forces only.
Baghdad and Washington
However, the report found that what is most surprising is that figures from within the Coordination Framework, which includes parties loyal to Tehran, support this position, including MP Mohsen al-Mandalawi, the Kurdish Shiite billionaire, adding that “dissolving the armed militias or integrating them into the regular security forces would remove Iran’s main source of influence inside Iraq.”
The report considered that such a step may be calculated to avoid problems with Washington, as it is believed that the Donald Trump administration is considering imposing new sanctions on Iraq unless the Popular Mobilization Forces are disarmed, adding that the Iraqi government is looking to calm things down with Washington, as Al-Sudani and Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid sent congratulatory telegrams to the American president when he was elected.
The report quoted MP Ali Nema (from the Coordination Framework) as saying that he expected Iraqi-American relations to improve, and that the Coordination Framework, which is loyal to Iran, “is not worried about Trump.”
The report recalled Al-Sudani’s recent visit to Tehran, saying that “relations with Tehran are more controversial than ever,” as Al-Sudani received harsh criticism from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who called for preserving and strengthening the Popular Mobilization Forces and expelling all American forces, and described the recent change of power in Syria as the work of “foreign governments.
Iran axis
The American report then asked whether all this data is sufficient to indicate that Iraq is also leaving the Iranian axis, but it noted that Iraqi experts did not agree on an answer to this question.
The report also quoted Hamdi Malik, a researcher at the Washington Institute, as saying that Iran “still exercises significant influence in Iraq,” and that al-Sudani’s government initially sent “cautious but positive signals” to the new Syrian regime, but “the tone in Shiite circles in Iraq changed completely after Khamenei expressed a completely hostile view of developments there.”
After noting that Al-Sudani's government relies heavily on the support of the Coordination Framework, the report quoted Malik as saying that "any attempt by Al-Sudani to limit Iran's influence will be merely cosmetic attempts."
The report said that Farhang Fereydoun Namdar, an Iraqi analyst from the University of Missouri, agreed with this assessment, as the Popular Mobilization Forces still have about 200,000 members and a budget of about $3 billion, indicating that this force is unlikely to go anywhere, despite calls for its dissolution. The report quoted Namdar as saying that “almost all factions of the Popular Mobilization Forces are loyal to Iran, and the Mobilization has managed to entrench itself in the economy and politics of Iraq ... and is the backbone of the Sudanese government.”
Strategic location
The American Atlantic report saw that Iraq's position may be more complicated than just the image of a state subordinate to a neighboring regime, as Baghdad is distinguished by a unique position to achieve a balance between Iranian interests and the interests of the Sunni states in the region, and it is trying hard to build partnerships with its non-Iranian neighbors.
The report quoted Iraqi affairs expert Aaron Robert Walsh, who is based in Amman, as saying that he believes that Al-Sudani is “cautiously separating Iraq from the axis without completely severing relations with Tehran,” noting that Tehran and its Iraqi allies could spoil these efforts, for example by attacking projects in which the Gulf states have invested.
The report concluded by reminding that Iraq will hold elections in October, and that if enough Iraqis reject pro-Tehran parties at the ballot box, as most did in 2021, there will be an opportunity for al-Sudani, or whoever may succeed him, to form a government that makes an extra effort to assert Iraqi sovereignty.
Will Trump Pivot on Venezuela?
By Charles Kennedy - Feb 25, 2025, 5:00 PM CST
- Chevron started talks with the Trump administration earlier this month regarding its business in Venezuela.
- Chevron is pursuing expansion plans in Venezuela.
- The immediate concern that is unchecked migrant flows might eventually trump any other concerns the president might have about Venezuela.
Chevron started talks with the Trump administration earlier this month regarding its business in Venezuela. The goal of the talks: stay in the country and keep producing oil. The challenge: top officials’ perception Chevron’s continued presence there is propping up Nicolas Maduro. But there is also an opportunity there. Trump can use Chevron for his Venezuelan agenda.
The agenda is quite simple: keep illegal migration under control. During his first term, this did not seem to be Trump’s top priority when it came to Venezuela, with him choosing sanctions in a bid to bend the government in Caracas to his will—which did not work. But the soft power may work, with the help of Chevron. The supermajor has become instrumental in Venezuela’s recovering economy.
Chevron returned to the South American country in 2022, with a special sanction waiver that gets renewed every six months. Thanks to that waiver, Chevron has come to account for a quarter of Venezuela’s oil production, Bloomberg reported in an in-depth analysis of the situation in the country that is home to the world’s largest oil reserves. Also thanks to that waiver, total oil production in Venezuela has grown—and so have revenues.
From the perspective of the government officials who want Chevron out of Venezuela, this fact confirms their perception that the presence of the supermajor strengthens Maduro. From another perspective, however, the better the Venezuelan economy does, thanks to the fatter oil revenues, the fewer Venezuelans would want to emigrate illegally and reach the United States, authoritarian regime at home or not. It is this latter perspective that some believe President Trump may adopt.
“Chevron’s activity has introduced a crucial element for the country’s macroeconomic stabilization,” one Venezuela-based analyst told Bloomberg. “It has jump-started the economy by adding jobs and new service contracts for the recovery of wells, and by sales of foreign currency to the domestic market,” Asdrubal Oliveros added.
Meanwhile, Chevron is pursuing expansion plans in Venezuela. This month, the company eyes a 50% increase in exports of crude from its Venezuelan operations to some 143,000 barrels daily. This would be the highest export rate since March 2018, Bloomberg said in a separate report earlier this month. In the past year, the output from Chevron’s Venezuelan operations has swelled by 37%, reaching 110,000 barrels daily in January. And that is just as well in light of Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
This threat did not have to be carried out, but if it had, there would have been an alternative for at least Mexican crude, if not Canadian, of which the U.S. imports over four million barrels daily. Yet some reprioritization may well be underway at the White House. “The Trump administration’s immediate priority is immigration, not Venezuela’s re-democratization,” Fernando Ferreira, head of geopolitical risk at Rapidan Energy Group, told Bloomberg. “The Maduro-Grenell meeting is promising for Petroleos de Venezuela SA and Western oil companies operating in Venezuela, and supportive for Venezuelan production.”
It remains to be seen how Trump will choose to handle the situation. Currently, Chevron’s operations in Venezuela are undergoing a review, and when asked about whether he would allow the continuation of exports by the company from Venezuela, Trump, as reported by Bloomberg, said, “Maybe not.”
However, the immediate concern that is unchecked migrant flows might eventually trump any other concerns the president might have about Venezuela. As the Atlantic Council’s head of energy advisory, David Goldwyn, put it to Bloomberg, “Chevron’s activity in Venezuela is in both countries’ interests, as it’s having an efficient player helping the Venezuela economy from falling back and preventing migrants from coming back.”
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