The Central Bank's trilogy curbs the parallel market. The dollar drops to a historic low for the first time since 2022.

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The Central Bank's trilogy curbs the parallel market...

A historic decline in the dollar for the first time since 2022

The Iraqi dinar has seen a significant improvement in its value against the US dollar in Iraqi markets over the past few weeks, with the hard currency declining for the first time since 2022, reaching 141,000 to the dollar.

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Before Ramadan, the dollar exchange rate hovered around 150,000 dinars per $100. During Ramadan, the dollar exchange rate remained relatively stable at around 147,000 to 149,000 dinars per $100. However, with the beginning of April, coinciding with Trump's announcement of a tariff war, the dollar exchange rate in Iraq declined rapidly, reaching 142,000 dinars per $100 today.

This improvement was driven by a package of monetary and regulatory policies that succeeded in reducing demand for foreign currency through informal channels.

In this context, the Prime Minister's Advisor for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, identified three main factors that contributed to curbing the parallel market and strengthening the dinar.

In an interview with Al-Eqtisad News, Saleh said that the Central Bank of Iraq has succeeded in meeting the dollar needs of major traders by strengthening national banks' reserves with their foreign correspondents, which are highly rated (AAA) banks, and by beginning to use alternative currencies such as the Emirati dirham, the euro, and the Chinese yuan in banking operations, especially with Iraq's main trading partners such as Turkey, the UAE, and China. This approach has contributed to accelerating remittances and reducing reliance on the parallel market.

Small businesses accounted for approximately 60% of private sector trade in Iraq. Supported by new government measures, this category of traders was facilitated to access dollars directly through Iraqi banks, eliminating the need for expensive intermediaries. This contributed to absorbing a significant portion of the parallel demand for dollars.

Saleh noted that travelers are now able to obtain dollars at the official exchange rate (1,320 dinars per dollar) using electronic payment cards, in addition to the ability to obtain $3,000 in cash per month through official airport outlets, significantly reducing their reliance on the black market.

Saleh emphasized that several supporting factors also contributed to reducing pressure on the dollar in the parallel market, including stricter legal procedures for dealing in dollars outside the banking system. This prompted individuals to avoid the legal risks associated with the black market and turn to gold as a savings instrument, due to global dollar fluctuations and concerns about the future of paper currency.

Al-Sudani's advisor pointed to the increasing demand for government bonds with attractive semi-annual returns, which have become a reliable tool for preserving value, away from speculation in the foreign exchange market. He also emphasized the success of hypermarkets in stabilizing the prices of basic commodities, which has weakened the impact of the parallel market on citizens' livelihoods and contributed to overall economic stability.

Concluding his remarks, the Prime Minister's advisor noted that demand for gold has reached a historic peak, driven by growing concerns among Iraqis about the possibility of the US Federal Reserve canceling or reducing some paper dollar denominations in the future. This has prompted citizens to diversify their savings away from the US currency.

In addition, economic expert Manar Al-Abidi identified a number of other reasons that led to the decline in the dollar's price locally.

Al-Obaidi told Al-Eqtisad News that the primary reason for the dollar's decline is a decline in demand on the parallel market, coupled with a significant increase in the supply of hard currency, both from domestic and foreign sources. He explained that this new balance has helped narrow the gap that has long separated the official exchange rate from the parallel market rate.

Among the notable changes, Al-Obaidi points to the declining confidence of many local investors in the dollar as a savings instrument, due to expectations of a decline in its value against gold. This trend has prompted a large segment of citizens to exchange dollars and purchase gold, increasing the dollar money supply in the local market.

In contrast, other sources have contributed to the increase in dollar supply, most notably remittances and foreign investments, particularly those related to international companies operating in Iraq. According to Al-Obaidi, these inflows are no longer solely linked to oil revenues, but rather come from additional channels that have helped ease pressure on foreign currency.

In a remarkable monetary measure, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) reduced the dinar money supply by more than 6 trillion dinars over the past six months, declining from 104 trillion to approximately 98 trillion dinars. This contraction helped raise the relative value of the dinar against the dollar, placing additional pressure on the parallel market.

Regarding trade, despite a 6% increase in imports from China, Iraq's imports from major countries such as India, Turkey, and the United States saw a significant decline. Upcoming figures are also expected to reveal a decline in imports from the UAE, which accounts for 30% of Iraq's total imports. This reflects a decline in overall demand for the dollar due to the contraction in trade activity.

Al-Abidi also points to the expansion of channels for accessing dollars at the official exchange rate, through bank cards, official money transfers, and direct transfers, which has prompted many merchants and individuals to move away from the black market.

In addition, regional conditions played a significant role in easing pressure on the dollar. The deteriorating economic situation in Iran led to a decline in demand for goods imported from Iraq, which were re-exported there. The cessation of trade with Syria also contributed to the decline in import demand.

Al-Obaidi also points to a decline in the trade in smuggled oil and prohibited goods, which used to rely heavily on dollar-denominated transactions on the parallel market. These activities have recently been curtailed through strict security and banking measures.

Al-Abidi believes that the continuation of these trends could push the dollar to levels close to 1,395 dinars in the coming period, barring any sudden developments in monetary policy or regional balances.

Improvement or temporary truce? The dollar's decline sparks hope in the Iraqi street.

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At a time of volatile market conditions and turmoil in citizens' pockets, the decline in the dollar exchange rate offers a glimmer of hope amid the darkness of the economic crises that have long exhausted Iraqis. Many families breathed a sigh of relief after seeing prices drop slightly, and many merchants felt a sense of reassurance as they reassessed their accounts in hopes of stability. But behind this sudden decline lie questions that are even bigger than the numbers: Is this a real improvement or merely a temporary truce?

Iraqis, tired of the dollar's rise and fall, are now viewing this decline with caution, watching the small details behind the big decisions. Amid this atmosphere, economic researcher Mustafa Hantoush, commenting today, Thursday (May 8, 2025), dotted the i's and crossed the t's.

Hantoush told Baghdad Today, "Trade with Iran, and with the ongoing talks between Iraq and the United States, has become less of a concern. Now, the Central Bank has moved to fill up $5,000, which has eased the pressure on the parallel market."

He added, "If the monopoly with Iran, the issue of travelers to sanctioned countries, and the monopoly of competition between banks are addressed, the exchange rate will return and stabilize at 1,350 dinars. But if they are not addressed, prices will remain volatile, and the decline will remain temporary."

The dollar exchange rate against the dinar recorded a new decline in local markets in Iraq today, Thursday (May 8, 2025).

A Baghdad Today correspondent said that the dollar exchange rate reached 142,000 dinars per $100 on the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges, while the selling price was 143,000 dinars per $100.

He pointed out that the purchasing price at exchange offices in local markets in Iraq is 141,000 dinars for $100. read as 1410 dinars per 1 dollar

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