The Banks Are Waiting For the Hoarded Money
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A guarantor of zeroing out crises.. Parliamentary demands to legislate the oil and gas law
The Kurdistan National Union parliamentary bloc called on the federal government, on Tuesday, to expedite and send the oil and gas law to the House of Representatives for study and approval as quickly as possible.
The bloc's spokesperson, Susan Mansour, said in a statement to Al-Maalouma Agency, "The enforcement of the oil and gas law is sufficient to eliminate the problems between Baghdad and Erbil," noting that "the law was very late in being included in the central government."
She added, "The enactment of the law requires political understandings between the governments of Baghdad and Erbil to resolve the outstanding problems between the two parties."
Mansour pointed out that "there are parliamentary demands for the government to send a draft oil and gas law to the House of Representatives for study and approval in accordance with what is stipulated in the State Administration Coalition Agreement."
Critical days ahead for Baghdad before Trump arrives at the WhiteHouse... and Al-Sudani in Tehran tomorrow
Al-Sadr reminds of "confining weapons and loose groups"
In critical days, Baghdad is trying to avoid political and perhaps economic "sanctions" that may affect the country due to its relationship with Iran. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is expected to visit Tehran in the next two days, while the "factions file" will be at the top of the priorities. Although the Iraqi factions have completely stopped any armed activity for more than a month, Western demands seem greater than just stopping the activity.
Analysts indicate that Donald Trump, the US President-elect, may take escalatory steps against Baghdad, once he takes office on the 20th of this month.
Ammar al-Hakim, the leader of the Hikma Movement, said last week that they received information from Trump regarding "positions against the factions and the forces of the Coordination Framework that own factions."
During the two weeks remaining before Trump assumes the US presidency, Baghdad will intensify dialogues on avoiding any expected escalation, according to sources close to the Shiite alliance.
In Baghdad, it was officially announced that Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will visit the Islamic Republic of Iran tomorrow, Wednesday.
The Prime Minister's Media Office stated in a statement last Sunday that "Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani intends to make an official visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran next Wednesday, corresponding to January 8, 2025."
The statement added that "the visit will include discussing bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to strengthen them, in light of what was achieved during the visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Baghdad in September of last year, in addition to the developments witnessed in the region."
The visit to Tehran was postponed for about a week for unknown reasons, while news leaked about the arrival of Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, to Baghdad and his holding of meetings with a number of forces of the Coordination Framework, perhaps related to what Al-Sudani will discuss in the Islamic Republic.
According to those close to the "Coordination Framework", the visit will discuss the issue of "factions" and Iranian gas.
Change..
Everyone in Iraq, after the recent developments in Syria, is talking about "change", but no one seems to know exactly what the change will look like.
Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Sadrist movement, has reminded of the worrying situation the country is going through, of the need to "confine weapons" to the state, a position that was previously expressed by the supreme religious authority Ali al-Sistani. Al-Sadr, who has avoided engaging in politics for more than two years, said yesterday in a tweet on the occasion of Army Day: "No and a thousand no's to loose weapons and loose groups."
It is believed, as is being said behind the scenes of politics, that controlling the factions may be the key to resolving the crisis with the United States and Israel.
Al-Sudani stressed that his government was able to spare Iraq from "being within the ring of fire that was intended to expand beyond the borders of Gaza and Lebanon."
The prime minister stressed, at a ceremony marking the fifth anniversary of the killing of the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Authority, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, that Iraq is "fully prepared and ready to respond and deter any aggression, regardless of its source."
A day earlier, Al-Sudani had rejected any party imposing “political or economic change” on Iraq.
But this contradicts what Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani, the former parliament speaker, said, who called for “comprehensive political change.”
At a ceremony commemorating the death of Al-Muhandis, Al-Mashhadani criticized the Shiite forces for ignoring a document of agreement concluded in 2018 with the Sunnis, saying that it was the solution “for what we are now trying to avoid its danger to us.”
Since the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime at the end of last year, the Sunnis have called for internal reforms, and Al-Mashhadani called for “reviewing the constitution.”
As for Al-Hakim, according to his recent statements in a dialogue session in Najaf last week, he believes that the change will be “targeting the factions” and not the political forces, but only those that have factions.
On this basis, those close to the “framework” say that the Shiite alliance may accept “reconsidering the structure of the Popular Mobilization Forces,” a decision that the factions reject, but that it may be “the lesser of two evils” and avoid military or economic sanctions related to dollar payments.
Bahaa al-Araji, a former deputy prime minister, believes that “most of the leaders of the Coordination Framework are in favor of dissolving the factions, but they cannot declare this explicitly.”
In previous press statements, al-Araji challenged the Shiite alliance to issue a statement rejecting the “dissolution of the factions.”
So far, no Shiite party has declared the possibility of discussing the “merging of the factions,” although it may not be what Western countries or Trump want, as discussions are taking place in political circles about “finally dismantling the Popular Mobilization Forces.”
In accordance with the principle of “the lesser of two evils,” the factions have ceased any military activity in the region since late November. The leaders of these factions have also disappeared or reduced their public appearances, most notably; Qais Khazali (leader of Asaib), Abu Alaa al-Wala’i (Sayyid al-Shuhada), and others.
Information has also leaked about the withdrawal of the factions from vital sites on the border in the al-Qaim area, and from Jurf al-Sakhar, the most mysterious city in Iraq for 10 years.The Popular Mobilization Forces insist, in the midst of these circumstances, that they are an “internal force” that directly reports to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
The head of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Falih al-Fayyadh, said at the memorial ceremony for al-Muhandis that the Popular Mobilization Forces “defended Iraq within its geographical borders, and this is a clear fact.”
Iraq's Oil Wealth: A Stark Contradiction Between Potential and Social Reality
Although Iraq is one of the most prominent oil producing and exporting countries in the world, the social and economic reality in the country shows a stark contradiction between the enormous potential and the increasing levels of poverty.
This contradiction raises questions about the shortcomings in resource management and the mechanisms that prevent oil revenues from being translated into tangible welfare for citizens.
Multidimensional poverty: more than just numbers
Poverty is no longer measured by individual income; the severity of deprivation in daily living requirements is a more accurate measure. This deprivation includes sectors such as education, health, and living services.
In Iraq, the percentage of poor people is 23.4% of the population according to last year’s statistics, compared to 22% in 2000, which means that the number of poor people has doubled from five million to ten million people over the past two decades.
But these figures do not reflect the full picture. In southern areas such as Muthanna and Diwaniyah, the poverty rate exceeds 50%, while it drops to only 5% in Sulaymaniyah. This gap highlights regional disparities in the distribution of resources and services, which exacerbates the feeling of deprivation in some governorates.
Causes of worsening poverty: financial corruption and structural crises
Iraq used to suffer from poverty due to the economic blockade and weak economic activities. Now, financial and administrative corruption is the main reason, as oil revenues are wasted on ineffective projects or leaked into the pockets of the corrupt. Although oil revenues have increased fivefold since 2000, the rentier economic system and the lack of economic diversification have increased the state and society’s dependence on oil, without developing other sectors such as industry and agriculture.
In the education sector, 3.2 million Iraqi school-age children are out of school, due to financial distress and lack of infrastructure. In the health sector, while some suffer from malnutrition, food waste rates are high due to consumption habits. This paradox reflects weak planning and poor control of resources.
Electricity services are a chronic crisis in a country with the world’s fifth-largest oil reserves. Despite state subsidies for energy prices, citizens are forced to rely on expensive private sources due to frequent outages. This gap between government supply and actual demand burdens poor families.
To reduce poverty, Iraq relies on tools such as the Social Fund for Development, social welfare, and food rations.
But these tools face major challenges, such as poor funding, corruption, and the inability to reach all those who deserve it.
Iraq can benefit from successful international experiences, such as the Chinese experience, which focused on creating job opportunities by exploiting economic growth, or the experience of other countries that relied on improving basic services.
Iraq and America discuss the existing partnership between the two countries and enhancing cooperation
Today, Tuesday, the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani, discussed with the Chargé d'Affairs of the US Embassy in Baghdad, Ms. Elizabeth Trudeau, in the presence of the Director of the Political Section at the Embassy, Ms. Michelle Siders, the general situation in Iraq, and ways to enhance cooperation and existing partnership between the two countries.
The media office of the Speaker of the House of Representatives stated in a statement received by "Kalima News": "During the meeting, the general situation in Iraq was discussed, and ways to enhance cooperation and existing partnership between the two countries, with emphasis on the United States' support for Iraq in various fields, in a way that enhances stability and development."
According to the statement, the meeting also discussed "a number of topics of common interest, including developments in the regional situation and their effects on the Iraqi arena."
Dr. Al-Mashhadani stressed the importance of strengthening relations between Iraq and the United States within the framework of common interests, stressing the need to continue dialogue and cooperation to support Iraq's stability and continue efforts to confront political and economic challenges.
Real Estate Bank announces financing investment complexes according to terms and conditions
The Real Estate Bank announced today, Tuesday, the allocation of the necessary funds to construct residential units, and while indicating that the initiative to finance investment complexes is still ongoing and extends to 2026 according to terms and conditions, it confirmed that the allocated funds exceeded 2 trillion dinars.
The bank's director, Abbas Al-Jawahri, told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "The Real Estate Bank, with funding from the Central Bank, launched a plan to include all previous transactions within the real estate initiative in all of the bank's 16 branches in the Iraqi governorates," indicating that "the Real Estate Bank allocated the necessary funds to build residential units, and announced them on the official website, and included coverage for all residential units outside the complexes."
As for investment complexes, Al-Jawahri pointed out that “the Central Bank has allocated funds for them and the Real Estate Bank has begun financing the complexes within the controls and conditions stipulated for each residential complex in coordination with the Investment Authority and the Real Estate Registration Department.”
He stressed that "the initiative is still ongoing and under the supervision of the Central Bank of Iraq, and there is a committee in the General Administration continuing with its plan that will extend to the years 2025 and 2026, in light of the availability of allocations from the Central Bank that exceeded 2.5 trillion dinars, in addition to the recovered funds that the Central Bank allowed to be re-released for a period of five years, in light of the plan set for the years 2025 and 2026 to release funds in all governorates."
Al-Maliki and the President of the Republic stress the importance of unifying national efforts to protect Iraq's sovereignty
A statement from his office, a copy of which was received by {Euphrates News}, stated that: “During the meeting, emphasis was placed on the importance of unifying efforts between national forces to consolidate the protection of Iraq’s sovereignty and enhance its security and stability, especially since the region is witnessing major challenges that require cooperation and work to overcome them.”
He added, "The two sides also stressed the need to manage political and economic affairs in accordance with the constitutional legal context."
According to the statement, the two sides expressed their "desire to coordinate positions and approve laws that have direct contact with the citizen and laws that complete the structure of the political system, and maintain the current stability and transform it into permanent stability."
Article 12 obstructs budget schedules and Parliament is unaware of the size of expenditures and deficit
Member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Kojer, expected on Tuesday that the budget tables would be sent in February, while he pointed out the possibility of delaying its passage due to disagreements over Article 12.
Kocher said in a statement to Shafaq News, "The Iraqi law requires the Council of Ministers to send the state's general budget to the House of Representatives in the ninth or tenth month of each year, but this has not happened in the past years."
Koger expected that the budget tables for the year 2025 would be sent to the Council at the beginning of next February, but the disagreements over Article 12 of the budget law may delay sending the tables from the government to Parliament.
Koger added that "the House of Representatives and members of the Parliamentary Finance Committee do not have any knowledge of the details of the budget schedules for the year 2025," noting that they do not "know the size of the budget in terms of operating and investment expenses and the deficit rate so far."
Article 12 of the draft budget law includes compensation for the Kurdistan Regional Government for the costs of production and transportation of oil extraction in the region.
It is noteworthy that the representative of the Kurdistan Democratic Party bloc, Jiay Timur, confirmed earlier to Shafaq News Agency, that "the Iraqi government previously calculated in the budget law the cost of extracting oil at $6, and this is a very small number," noting that "foreign companies that work on extracting oil at a cost of up to $26 per barrel."
In June 2023, the Iraqi Parliament voted on the draft general budget law for the fiscal years (2023, 2024, 2025).
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Iraqi economy enters "dark tunnel" and MPs are concerned about the delay in sending budget tables
Warnings are increasing that Iraq will face major economic difficulties during the current year and the coming years, for reasons most notably its reliance on oil as the sole source of the financial budget and the lack of alternatives, especially with the increase in population.
Experts confirm that the failure to diversify the country's sources of income and invest oil revenues in providing job opportunities and producing goods and services threatens to spread unemployment among young people, while fluctuating oil prices threatens the country's economic and financial stability.
In this regard, economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned today, Monday, of Iraq entering a dark and critical economic tunnel due to wrong policies, which affects the vulnerable and middle-income classes.
Al-Marsoumi said in an interview with Al-Maalouma Agency, “Iraq has begun to enter a dark and critical tunnel due to wrong economic policies, failure to provide job opportunities, and resorting to appointments, and here lies the dilemma,” indicating that "When the state is late in paying salaries, the general economic movement and all components of the private sector and the fragile and middle classes will be affected."
He added, "There is a lack of economic development and a development vision, and therefore things will continue as they are, and whenever oil prices decline, Iraq will find itself in the midst of great difficulties." He explained that "the increase in population requires raising public spending, while revenues are stagnant as a result of relying on oil as the sole resource for the budget and the failure to use its revenues to build a diversified economy that produces goods and services."
He points out that "there is no short-term solution and the government may resort to deducting a percentage of the Central Bank's transfers and borrowing from domestic banks, and the real solution lies in providing new financial sources other than oil," noting that " Continuing things as they are now will lead to a major problem and unemployment among young people will increase in the coming years.”
The 2025 budget has not yet been approved, while MPs confirm that the budget schedules have not been sent to the House of Representatives.
MP Ahmed Al-Sharmani expressed his concern today, Monday, regarding the delay in sending the 2025 budget tables by the government to the House of Representatives, noting that the parliament is still not aware of the details of these tables until now.
Al-Sharmani explained in a statement to / Al-Maalouma / agency, that “according to the Financial Management Law, the budget tables must be sent to the House of Representatives at the end of October of each year, and that delaying this is a legal violation, especially since this delay has been repeated annually for years,” explaining that “the current delay is another legal violation, as there is no specific date for sending the budget tables.”
He points out that "there is a possibility that the government is linking the sending of these tables to amending the law proposed in Parliament, which will lead to an additional long delay in light of the ongoing disagreements over the proposal."
He explained that “the House of Representatives is still not aware of the 2025 budget schedules yet, and there is no specific date for sending these schedules.”
In contrast, the Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirms that the growth rates of the non-oil GDP will rise to an unprecedented level during 2024, while pointing out that the government program has succeeded in controlling financial diversification in the general budget and the national economy in general.
Washington sends Tehran an "urgent" message via Baghdad: No action while waiting for the new guest
The source explained to Baghdad Today that "Washington is facing an important variable with the approaching handover of the keys to the White House to President-elect Donald Trump after his victory in the elections, as there is a fundamental disagreement in the view of Presidents Biden and Trump regarding the Iranian file."
He added, "The brief message that was conveyed to Tehran through some Iraqi mediators from Washington was calling for not moving in any negotiations or taking any measures regarding the controversial issues between the two sides, pending Trump assuming his presidential duties . "
He stressed that "this development is not surprising, but rather comes within the usual procedures followed by US administrations as the transfer of power to the new administration approaches."
He pointed out that "the start of negotiations or the exchange of strategic messages between the two countries will remain postponed until the new president takes power, especially with the differences in visions and priorities of each president."
He pointed out that "there is a positive response from Washington and Tehran to resolve the differences between them in a way that prevents military escalation and avoids tensions, as Washington does not want to engage in a direct military clash with Tehran, and the latter also participates in this trend."
He stressed that "the nature of Trump's policy and his previous experience may produce surprises, but the options on the table remain to conclude a comprehensive deal that includes all the controversial issues between the two countries, but it seems that Baghdad will be part of the window of understanding between Washington and Tehran, along with some other Arab and foreign countries."
For many months, Iraq has been playing the role of mediator in the indirect dialogue between Washington and Tehran, and has contributed to preventing events from developing into a major regional comprehensive war .
In turn, an informed source revealed on November 21, 2024, an Iranian message with positive content to Washington through Iraqi mediators .
The source said in an interview with "Baghdad Today", "Tehran sent yesterday, through Iraqi mediators, an indirect message to America about its vision for resolving the crisis and the dangerous escalation in the Middle East, starting with ending the war of extermination in Gaza and southern Lebanon, stopping the bombing in Beirut and seeking a roadmap with an international vision ."
He added, "The Iranian message carried diplomatic signals in most of its lines, which means that it wants to reach a solution that ends the ongoing conflict according to a vision with specific dimensions, while indicating that it does not want a comprehensive war, but will engage in it if it is imposed on it directly ."
He pointed out that "it can be sensed that the Iranian military option on Tel Aviv has been postponed at the present time in light of undeclared international efforts to prevent the explosion of the Middle East, in addition to waiting to see the new American president and how he will deal with the files of the East and his promises to end the war ."
The source said that "Iran has begun to tone down its rhetoric towards diplomacy, through which solutions can be reached that contribute to stopping the bloodshed, while stating a firm position that it will not abandon the axis of resistance ."
Iraq played the role of mediator in the indirect dialogue between Washington and Tehran, and contributed to preventing events from developing into a major regional comprehensive war .
Iraq is waiting for Trump
Perhaps for the first time, the arrival of a new American president has received this much attention from Iraqis, whether they are in power or ordinary citizens, with different motives, and each expects something from him to justify his interest. What happened in this regard is that the people in power, who were brought in by Washington itself, began to feel their heads spinning, since the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory, fearing that the arrest warrant they issued against him following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and his companion Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad airport during his previous term had left a psychological impact on him. What made matters worse was the international consensus on the dissolution of Baghdad’s militia rulers, including the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the transfer of weapons to the state, and Trump informing them (in a private message) that this must be done before he reaches the decision-making seat (January 20), otherwise the possibility of directing military strikes to impose this would be likely, so they became anxious and began to discuss what they could do to avoid what might befall them if Trump proceeded to fulfill his threat.
In contrast, the Iraqis were filled with a wave of enthusiasm and relief, hoping that Trump would achieve for them what they failed to achieve for one reason or another, and that he would work to correct the historical mistake committed by the administration of former President George Bush in invading and destroying Iraq on the basis of a big lie, and they reserved his criticism of that evil step more than once.
The ruling men were keen to hide their anxiety after the leak of Trump’s message, so as not to be branded as incapable of managing crises. They also continued to suggest that everything was calm on the militia front, while at the same time some factions were being secretly transferred to areas of population concentration to avoid being struck, and some militia sites were being handed over with some heavy weapons to the army to throw dust in the eyes. Some of their leaders chose to distance themselves from what was happening, and reassure their followers that they were out of the game. Some of them chose to flee to Iran under the pretext of treatment or completing their studies. In this context, it was noted that they remained silent in the face of Washington’s announcement that it was keeping more than 2,500 soldiers in its bases in Iraq. They did not say a single word after they had always raised their voices demanding the expulsion of American forces from the country, and threatening to target them if they did not withdraw. Even the government of the Supreme Leader, which is today trying to save its skin from the consequences, has made an effort to put a distance between itself and The "militias" were the ones who were shouting day and night that Baghdad was one of the capitals of the "Axis of Resistance", which had become historically dead.
Iraqis were filled with a wave of enthusiasm and relief, hoping that Trump would achieve for them what they had failed to achieve.
In addition, the Iraqi political scene is going through a state of tension and crisis, reflected in the emergence of excessive nervousness among local actors, which resulted in a clear loss of direction, and you see them resorting to this or that party to save them from falling into the abyss. Finally, the revelation of an expected visit by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to Tehran (today, Wednesday), to put the matter before the Supreme Leader, and to know what he sees after some militia factions insisted on boarding the dangerous ship. It was said that he will propose to Tehran the idea of obtaining economic incentives in exchange for abandoning its arms in the region, in a way that redraws the regional scene in a different way, preserving Iran's political system away from the circle of targeting. This is what al-Sudani believes, who is working at a high pace to change the scene, which could positively reflect on the situation of his government, and may open the way for him to obtain a second term.
As for ordinary people, they seem to be drowning in a psychological and social legacy that is about to take root deep within them as a result of 21 lean years in which they tasted the bitterness and surrendered to their fate, hoping that a miracle would happen one day. Today, they see a light at the end of the tunnel and see no harm in Washington rescuing them, as it invaded their country and brought down their national state in the well-known manner. Perhaps by doing so, it will atone for some of what it did. Here comes the saying of the American thinker Noam Chomsky: “If institutions cease to act, people look to other things, to a savior, to a man from Mars, or they may turn to fanaticism.”
In short, there is a stark reality that those concerned here or there must be aware of, including the rulers of Iraq, which is that the major powers controlling the game have begun to change the rules of engagement in a manner consistent with their interests and security, and the minor players have no choice but to submit to this matter, whether they like it or not.
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