WOTS FRI MAY 28 21 World Bank: Iraq stands at a crossroads and its economic reforms are limited
These are the articles I discussed on the My FX Buddies Podcast:
Who is blocking foreign investment opportunities in Iraq?
For many years, there has been talk about the need to correct the general economic situation in Iraq, by bringing in foreign investments in order to start rebuilding infrastructure, rebuilding what was destroyed by wars, reviving productive sectors such as industry and agriculture, and the obsolescence of many industrial projects that need to be reconstructed and modernized, in addition to providing job opportunities for young people. For decades, unemployment is the highest in the region .
Despite the Iraqi parliament enacting an investment law No. (13) in 2006, which is the establishment of the National Investment Commission, which is concerned with attracting local and international investments in order to improve the country’s services and infrastructure and create job opportunities for Iraqis, foreign investment opportunities remain shy and almost non-existent. in the country after nearly half a decade after the enactment of the investment Law .
Security and political turmoil
As it is known, the capital is "cowardly" and often searches for a safe and stable environment to enter it, and this matter is difficult to achieve in Iraq due to the successive security and political turmoil that the country is experiencing, which began from the moment after April 2003 until now, as soon as the country graduated From a stifling political crisis to a new security crisis that shakes all corners of the country, and this was what was preventing foreign investments from entering Iraq .
This matter was diagnosed by many observers and specialists in Iraqi economic affairs, including the head of the Parliamentary Committee on Economy and Investment, Representative Ahmed Salim al-Kinani, who considered in a video broadcast on his page on social networking sites (Facebook), that "the political and security instability in Iraq represents an obstacle to attract foreign investment into the country .
Al-Kinani noted that "the Committee on Economy and Investment always emphasizes on the government side the conclusion of international agreements in order to attract investors to Iraq and grant them facilities to expand the field of investment in all services and sectors that serve the public interest ."
Bureaucracy and financial blackmail
The chronic turmoil in the political and security situation in Iraq was not the only one that stifled foreign investment in the country, but the conflict of laws in force, corruption, administrative bureaucracy and financial extortion carried out by armed groups and clans represent another obstacle to investment opportunities, according to what the economist Dr. Sadiq Al-Bahadli .
Al-Bahadli said in a special statement, "Iraq's lack of a safe investment environment makes the investor and foreign and even local companies unsure of their capital, as there is no law or structure in regards to legislation and instructions that achieve real investment opportunities," noting that "Investment Law No. (13) for the year 2006, it did not achieve its desired goal, as long as the administrative bureaucracy exists and hinders investment opportunities .”
Written by.. Mohamed Wadha وذ
Al-Bahadli pointed out that “a simple administrative employee can obstruct large investment opportunities, while there is supposed to be a single window through which the investor obtains the investment license, as is the case in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, they have the president of the region who is responsible for the investment. The investor comes and goes for his project and during his work is done.” Complete the transaction without blackmailing this investor,” stressing that “in all the governorates of Iraq, some still view the investor as a colonialist and investment is colonialism! This backward mentality does not create investment opportunities for either the local investor or the outside investor !”
However, the economic expert, Dr. Sadiq Al-Bahadli, said in an interview that "the extortion carried out by the clan system and the influential among the ruling political class, political parties and armed groups, outlaws, represent great unforeseen pressures for them, causing delays in Iraq's obtaining investment opportunities
World Bank: Iraq stands at a crossroads and its economic reforms are limited
Oil price volatility and COVID-19 have added to Iraq's economic problems and deepened the current economic and .social fragility With the trends of global oil markets turning positive, the future prospects for Iraq are expected to improve, the new edition of the Iraq Economic Monitor for Spring 2021 entitled “Seizing the Opportunity of Reforms and Managing Volatility” expects that the economy will gradually recover against the background of high oil prices and higher OPEC .+ production quotas with the expectation The GDP gradually grew by 1.9 percent .in 2021 and 6.3 percent on average in 2022-2023 Higher oil revenues combined with the impact of currency devaluation are expected to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.4% .of GDP in 2021 However, the fiscal position remains expansionary with budget financing needs expected to average $13.7 billion annually (7.5% of GDP) in the forecast period (2021-2023), which is high compared to pre-COVID levels. 19 - Although eased, the 2021 budget includes reforms such as measures to improve public financial management and domestic revenue mobilization efforts, if implemented that could help alleviate fiscal deficits and exchange rate .pressures, however, more structural issues such as public wages remain Annuities are tightened without treatment
A report found that this cautious improvement in the outlook hides significant risks that could materialize at any time, and threatens dependence on oil for growth, exports and revenues, coupled with the increasing stringency of the budget, macroeconomic stability with cycles of low oil prices and the failure to implement structural fiscal reforms in The election. Continuing underinvestment, linked to poor public investment implementation and an unfavorable business climate for private investments in non-oil sectors, hampers programs supporting growth and service delivery. Delay in vaccine rollout may lead to additional shutdowns with a negative impact on service sector activities. The .potential in security conditions amid high regional geopolitical tensions to reverse many of the past economic gains :To manage these risks and avoid a repetition of past economic performance, Iraq has a way forward Ambitious reforms laid out under the Iraqi government’s White Paper, The Economic Monitor notes that Iraq’s experience has repeatedly shown that oil prices and reforms are inversely correlated, successive governments launched reforms under pressure from low oil prices and amid a persistently high perception of corruption as well as poor public service delivery. This combination created social and political tensions that undermined the success of most .reform initiatives Structural reforms are essential to creating a sustainable economic future in Iraq,” said Saroj Kumar Jha, World Bank“ Regional Director for the Mashreq. "Building back better is the key to creating the jobs necessary for youth and helping to restore the balance of Iraqis, not to mention the transformations required to build equal economic ".opportunities for women
This time is different. The country stands at a crossroads where quick solutions are limited, and the economy needs a serious transformation if it is to create jobs for its growing youth. The release of IEM Spring 2021 estimates that Iraq could gain an annual financial gain of $11 billion if policies supporting growth in the non-oil sectors are implemented in .tandem with addressing the budget stalemate Accelerating the vaccination program could also help accelerate recovery and gradually reverse the sudden rise in poverty observed during the summer of 2020. With oil prices rising above $60 per barrel, Iraq can use these windfall .gains to mitigate the social fallout of those intended reforms and invest in its own capital human and material One area that is not explicitly mentioned in the white paper but is useful for achieving Iraq's economic transformation is to increase the rate of women's participation in the labor force. Three times more likely to be unemployed than men, barriers to entering and remaining in the labor market vary greatly for women from different socioeconomic .groups, and across critical turning points in women's lives To address this, labor market interventions are needed to ensure a better match between labor supply and demand. These interventions include focusing on the presence and accessibility of demand-driven skills training programmes, improving access to affordable, high-quality childcare, providing incentives for the private sector to invest in sectors that employ more women and providing income-generating options that are culturally acceptable to women and supporting such Initiatives to expand its scope. Specific legislation and regulations can contribute to limiting women's access to employment including ambiguous child marriage legislation, as well as stark gender inequalities in property
and inheritance rights. There is a need to review laws and regulations, and although addressing social norms can be challenging, some interventions aimed at correcting misconceptions can be effective in improving women's .participation in the labor market in Iraq The Economic Report offers a non-exhaustive set of recommendations to help the Iraqi government achieve its goal of increasing the labor force participation rate by 5 points in 2025. These recommendations call for a better match between labor supply and demand (for example, by developing matchmaking between credibility of services), creating gender-specific solutions in the workplace, and establishing a comprehensive legislative framework (eg through the .(removal of occupational and sectoral restrictions Besides the intrinsic value of empowering women, increasing gender equality in the labor market is the smart economy. Increasing women's participation in the labor force in Iraq to their average rate of income would increase .their per capita GDP by about 31 percent. Notable gain in the country's wealth
The Ministry of Finance in Kurdistan Region will start distributing salaries the day after tomorrow
The Ministry of Finance and Economy of Kurdistan Region announced on Friday that it will start distributing salaries to all employees and workers in the public sector, starting from the beginning of next week.
The ministry said in a brief statement today, that on Sunday, the 30th of May, the salaries of units 70 and 80 of the Peshmerga forces, and employees of the Ministry of Finance and Economy, will be paid.
The statement indicated that salaries will be distributed to all employees during the next week.
The Ministry of Finance was scheduled to start distributing salaries last Tuesday, but the lack of liquidity in banks and government banks in the region prevented this.
Al-Dulaimi: The region handed over data on the numbers of employees, oil and revenues to Baghdad
The representative of the Kurdistan Democratic Party bloc in Parliament, Ikhlas al-Dulaimi, confirmed that the Kurdistan government handed over all data related to the numbers of employees, oil, revenues and outlets to the federal government.
Al-Dulaimi said that the paragraphs of the federal budget law related to the region are implemented only under the supervision and coordination with the Federal Ministry of Oil, and that the data handed over by the region relate to oil and employees, but the federal government did not take the initiative to determine a method or mechanism for paying the oil wages, adding that the salaries of the region’s employees have not been completed. Sent by Baghdad since April of last year.
Representatives announce the completion of the plan of secure borders with Kurdistan
Member of Parliament for Diyala Governorate, MP Abdul Khaleq Al-Azzawi, announced, on Thursday, May 27, 2021, that the border plan with Kurdistan has been completed.
Al-Azzawi said in a press statement, that the security deployment plan on the administrative borders separating Diyala and Sulaymaniyah within the Kurdistan region has completed all its axes and all the spaces previously monitored have been kept, especially in mountainous areas, highlands and valleys.
He added that the borders have been suffering for years from the existence of vacuums that have posed a security threat to the nearby regions and villages, in addition to the security points, pointing out that the completion of the redeployment and holding of the land will have a positive sign in enhancing security stability and pushing it forward.
He pointed out that keeping the administrative borders addressed an important challenge, and we seek to close the rest of the gaps through the ongoing redeployment plans in Diyala
GÜNEY: TURKISH BUSINESSMEN ARE READY TO INCREASE THEIR INVESTMENTS IN IRAQ
The Turkish ambassador to Baghdad, Ali Reza Günay, confirmed today, Friday, that Turkish businessmen in Iraq are ready to increase their investments there.
He added in an interview with the state-owned Anadolu Agency, followed by the "National News Center", that "a meeting was held with representatives of 60 Turkish companies active in Iraq, at the embassy building in Baghdad, during which they discussed economic and trade relations between the two countries."
He explained that "Turkish businessmen briefed him on the problems facing them in Iraq, and made proposals to solve them."
He pointed out, "the consensus of views between him and businessmen regarding the fact that increasing Turkish investment projects in Iraq will contribute to the growth of this country."
He expressed "the willingness of businessmen to increase their investments in Iraq, indicating that he will continue to hold meetings with representatives of Turkish companies there."
The volume of trade exchange between the two countries is $17 billion, while the two countries aspire to raise it to $20 billion during the coming period.
The daily WOTS "Word on the Street" report is below here:
The exchange price of (100) dollars on the Kifah Stock Exchange in the capital, Baghdad, came to (149.400) dinars, and the price of (100) dollars on the Al-Harithiya Stock Exchange reached (149.350) dinars, and in other exchange offices, the selling price was (149,750) dinars, and the purchase price was (148,750) dinars.
As for the Erbil Stock Exchange, it rose, reaching a price of 100 dollars to (149,275) dinars, and in the Basra Stock Exchange, the price of 100 dollars (149,500) dinars, and in the Mosul Stock Exchange, the price of 100 dollars (149,400) dinars.
On the Stock Exchange of Sulaymaniyah Governorate, the price was recorded at $100 (149,200) dinars. On the Stock Exchange of Duhok Governorate, the price of 100 dollars (149,250) dinars was recorded.
Favorite Currencies Forex Quotes
| Symbol | Bid | Ask | High | Low | Open | Change | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/IQD |  1436.9000 |  1486.2000 | 1457.4000 | 1457.3000 | 1457.3000 | -0.9000 | 12:05 |
| USD/VND | 23045.0000 | 23047.0000 | 23040.5100 | 23034.2900 | 23034.2900 | 7.0500 | 02:00 |
| USD/CNY | 6.3649 | 6.3669 | 6.3827 | 6.3622 | 6.3819 | -0.0167 | 05:18 |
| USD/KWD |  0.3003 | 0.3013 | 0.3005 | 0.3004 | 0.3005 | -0.0001 | 05:12 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4183 | 1.4183 | 1.4208 | 1.4173 | 1.4200 | -0.0018 | 05:20 |
| USD/IRR | 42000.0000 | 42210.0000 | 42097.5000 | 42097.5000 | 42097.5000 | 0.0000 | 00:00 |
| USD/IDR | 14333.0000 | 14333.0000 | 14334.0000 | 14267.0000 | 14331.0000 | 1.0000 | 05:20 |
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VIRUS FEAR FADES IN USA
Oil prices rise, Brent touches $70
Oil prices rose on Friday, raising Brent to nearly $70 a barrel, as the market supported strong US economic data and expectations of a strong recovery in global fuel demand in the third quarter.
Brent crude futures for July rose 32 cents, 0.5 percent, to $69.78 a barrel by 0610 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude for July reached $67.18 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.5 percent.
"Oil is trending higher on the back of strong US economic data and growing sentiment that if the Iran nuclear deal is revived, it will not include an immediate lifting of sanctions and that the oil market will not be flooded with excess supplies quickly," said Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA.
Brent and West Texas Intermediate are on track for weekly gains of 5% to 6% as analysts expect global oil demand to rebound to nearly 100 million barrels per day in the third quarter during summer travel in Europe and the United States following the spread of the novel coronavirus. . vaccination programmes.
“Gasoline demand has exceeded 2019 levels in many areas,” ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that this could partly be offset by weakness in COVID-19-hit Asia.
Strong economic data from the United States, the world's largest economy and oil consumer, also boosted risk appetite. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since mid-March 2020, beating estimates.
Balancing expectations of a demand recovery against a possible increase in Iranian supplies, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are likely to stick to the current pace of gradual easing of oil supply curbs at a meeting. OPEC sources said on Tuesday.
Iran and world powers have negotiated in Vienna since April to find steps that Tehran and Washington should take on sanctions and nuclear activities to return to full compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with world powers.
Analysts expect Iran to add between 500,000 bpd to 1.5 million bpd of crude and condensate to the market once sanctions are lifted
The World Bank announces important details in its report on Iraq
Mansour said in a televised interview, “Negative growth of the national product reached 10%, which is one of the worst growth that we see after 2003, and we attribute it to the drop in the oil price, the OPEC Plus agreement, which reduced oil production, and the Corona pandemic that hits many sectors, including services, religious tourism, and others.” .
He pointed out, "a sharp decline in financial resources, and the government has taken harsh measures, including the reduction of all spending outside wages and salaries, and we have seen a sharp decline in public investment and social benefits and all programs that can support growth and reduce poverty and a sharp decrease in it."
Mansour stressed, "The World Bank is very interested in the factor of growth and sustainable growth, the need for diversification and job creation outside the oil sector, and a basic necessity for women's participation in the labor market, given that Iraq is among the lowest in the world in this aspect."
And he indicated that "if Iraq is able to achieve policies and involve women in the labor market 2.
2.5 billion dollars as a result of burning gas associated with the extraction of oil and losses in agriculture and water.”
Mansour continued, “The solutions to Iraq’s problems have become a large structure that accumulates from one government to another, and the solutions are not easy and not immediate, and we are talking about problems in the public sector, electricity and infrastructure, and a very small banking sector that does not exist. And it is not supportive of the public sectors.”
And he noted, “We are aware of the importance of the current government’s white paper, which diagnoses with such accuracy and danger, and rings an alarm bell for the Iraqi economic situation and says that the solution is not immediate, and there must be short-term measures, and all reforms require a pause and a political decision in the first place.”
Mansour concluded, “Not diving into these reforms means recurring problems from one government to another with the low exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar,” adding, “We do not set conditions on Iraq, but rather offer advice to increase imports, and with the improvement of the oil price, it is a good look, but it hides 3 risks.” The first is the political and security risk that overthrows all economic recovery and the risk of fluctuations in the oil price and may drop to 50 or 40 dollars per barrel. The other danger is the absence of reform and the failure to implement the white paper, which means a loss of 11 billion dollars for Iraq.
The expert at the World Bank stressed that "reforms affect salaries, electricity, social protection networks and other government-supported aspects," noting that "the e-government puts Iraq in the back ranks in terms of corruption and management efficiency."
CBI Update: Just a note:
including $0. CASH
ISX Update: Shares Traded: not updated for todayValue Traded: not updated for today
5-27-2021 Newshound Guru MilitiaMan The next move for the CBI is to release the new Digital Dinar that will compete and trade with many others in the region and the USA...All being cleared through FINTECH / BLOCKCHAIN technologies...I see big things in the CBIs front yard. Look at the Mosul Branch going Digital, today in the news. Wow... A big move and now it appears the stage is set. Kahdimi has been speaking out and so has the CBI and Financial advisors... Very good to see...imo ! ~ Hold on and keep a close watch.
5-27-2021 Intel/Newshound Guru Holly ...We await the Dubai funds to be released and NO ONE will know when that will be done until after it has completed. This is what will truly kick off the RV release. All sources say we are in the window for this by the end of this month!
5-27-2021 Intel Guru MarkZ [via PDK] What I have heard from Zurich and Hong Kong is they expect Dubai 1 to open today…If it does- that means it would be our weekend… Rumors are that it could have opened as early as 4-5 hours ago… I’m hitting a brick wall trying to track down whether it has or hasn’t…Almost everyone on my banking side are being leaned on heavily NOT to talk by the UST and upper levels of the redemption side. These are people directly involved on the redemption side of all this. I am respecting this. We hope we see some fruition today as we are all tired of “nothing burgers”.
5-27-2021 Newshound/Intel Guru Petra They are aggressively going after the bad guys in parliament which I love reading about. There is so much money to claw back to put back in the Iraqi coffers that has been stolen from them I think a lot of parliamentarians might not show up on Saturday because they have to divulge all their activities...
5-27-2021 Intel Guru Frank26 Kurdistan knows that they're about to raise the value. That's why Kurdistan has been in the news and been in Baghdad so much. Because before they release the budget Kurdistan want's their proper share of it according to the oil prices that have gone up. They already got the HCL. They already go the salaries. They know the value is going to go up and it'll be purchasing power for the citizens...think about it. Where is the HCL? In the budget. And what does the HCL that's in the budget need? The new exchange rate...that's what you call the last 3 seconds on the clock.
5-27-2021 Intel Guru MarkZ [via PDK] ...This coming weekend is Memorial Day weekend and a time to remember those brave men and women in the military that give us the freedom to be in this stream…The original design was for this to go on a 3 day weekend. And we are getting ready to have one... I hate getting excited for these benchmarks because up to now we have always been disappointed…but there is so much happening right now….
