Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Dollar vs Dinar: How Iraq’s Rich Get Richer

The dollar exchange rate difference has divided Iraqis into two classes – a discussion between experts Dagher and Daadoush

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An economic discussion was opened by prominent Iraqi expert Mahmoud Dagher, who published a brief paper on the exchange rate fluctuation, its dimensions, and its harmful effects on the country's economy. Expert Ali Daadoush followed with additional comments in the same vein. He concluded that the dollar exchange rate differential has gone beyond being an economic problem, but has become a tool for redistributing wealth among Iraqis and impacting the conditions of social classes. This has resulted in guaranteed profits for a segment of money changers, major merchants, and specific banks, and ongoing losses for those with fixed incomes, such as employees and retirees. The following is the text of Dagher's paper and Daadoush's response.

 The video for this My FX Buddies Blog post is below here:

An article by financial expert Ali Daadoush, followed by a paper by expert Mahmoud Dagher:

Profiting from speculation and inflated import bills was the straw that broke the Iraqi economy's back and led to rampant structural imbalances.

Despite its rentier status, Iraq suffers from structural weaknesses in its banking institutions and a lack of secondary market management tools. This makes maintaining price stability a mere administrative decision, not based on effective market tools.

The fundamental reason for the persistence of the exchange rate gap despite the new platforms lies in the weak compliance of banks with US Treasury requirements (OFAC - AML/CFT), the limited diversity of sources of demand for the dollar (limited to imports), and the existence of imbalances in the balance of payments and capital flows.

The transformation of the exchange rate gap into a tool for speculation and guaranteed profit has led to a distortion in the relative price structure and increased costs for the real sector, especially the non-dollar sector, in addition to weakening confidence in the banking system and stimulating demand for cash outside the banking system (monetary economy).

There is a profound indication of shifts in financial positions and economic justice, as the gap alters financial positions within the market, thereby unfairly redistributing income and wealth in two directions: first, profits for specific groups (money changers, large merchants, certain banks), and second, ongoing losses for those with fixed incomes (employees, retirees).

Finally, upon gathering the observations, the exchange rate gap is not merely a monetary difference; it is an indicator of the fragility of the monetary system and the absence of justice in economic activity. It is a tool for unproductive redistribution of wealth.

I see an addition of a recommendation to Dr. Mahmoud Dagher's article, which is:

A gradual transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime, within a calculated crawling band, with strict tools to combat speculation and financial smuggling, is the most appropriate solution for the current Iraqi environment.

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The budget's "loaves of bread" are hung on the walls of political conflict and election propaganda.

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q has become accustomed to waking up to postponed promises, as budget schedules transform from an economic document into a political negotiating card, carried on the shoulders of election campaigns instead of being distributed as rights to the people. Spending schedules languish in the drawers of conflict, and postponed projects wake up to new disappointments, while the voice of propaganda rises at the expense of the silence of the tired street. The executive authority is dragging its feet in approving, and the legislature is busy making a show, while the citizen has nothing to do with this scene except the long wait and repeating the saying, “Bread is postponed until the dispute is resolved.”
The struggle for seats  
In this regard, Ali Al-Fatlawi, a member of the Coordination Framework, ruled out the possibility of approving budget schedules during the new legislative session, due to the escalation of electoral activity and the lack of coordination between the executive and legislative authorities.
Al-Fatlawi said in a statement to Al-Maalouma Agency, “The approval of budget schedules faces major obstacles, especially with the approach of the parliamentary elections scheduled for next November,” indicating that “the preoccupation of political forces with election campaigns will directly affect legislative work.”
He added that "there is an urgent need to approve these schedules due to their impact on infrastructure projects, government spending, and the operating expenses of ministries and governorates," calling for "a unified parliamentary position to pressure for their passage."
Al-Fatlawi pointed out that “the lack of coordination between the government and parliament has led to clear confusion in the management of the financial file, as each entity works separately, which has contributed to the disruption of the budget schedules and the delay in the allocations reaching their beneficiaries.”
He warned of "the repercussions of the continuation of this stagnation," stressing that "the failure to approve the schedules will cast a shadow over various aspects of life: economic, service, and social."

Meanwhile, member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Faisal Hassan Sakr, confirmed that the delay in sending the 2025 budget tables to Parliament has no logical justification, noting that the government continues to ignore official communications requesting clarification of its position on the detailed tables.
Sakr told Al-Maalouma Agency, “The 2025 budget tables were greatly delayed, and the government should have sent them at the beginning of this year.” He pointed out that "the fiscal year is coming to an end, and despite this, the tables are still missing, and we do not know anything about them yet."


Sakr explained that "despite the adoption of the three-year budget with the aim of overcoming the problems of annual budgets, the government has not yet taken the initiative to send the detailed tables to Parliament."
He pointed out that "Parliament has previously sent several official letters to the government inquiring about the date of sending the tables and the details they contain, but the Finance Committee has not yet received any response from the relevant authorities."


Thus, the budget convoy moves slowly, hampered not only by the sand, but also by the infighting of politicians and hampered by executive and legislative differences. The longer the convoy waits, the more thirst grows in the Iraqi street, and the gap widens between those who are supposed to represent the people and those who pay the price of their postponement. In the absence of coordination and the noise of propaganda, priorities are lost, and the budget is assassinated under the cloak of slogans. And the citizen, as usual, can only wait and pray to God to inspire him with patience and solace for what he has been afflicted with. End 


Government media: The adoption of electronic payment is based on the government's vision for developing financial transactions.

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Government media: The adoption of electronic payment is based on the government's vision for developing financial transactions.


The government media team announced today, Tuesday, that all official institutions are currently dealing electronically to obtain and collect funds, while indicating that executive bodies are following up on the adoption of electronic systems in government institutions.

Government media spokesman, Haider Majeed, told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “Many Cabinet decisions and Prime Minister’s directives have been issued to all government institutions, in coordination with the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq, to adopt the electronic payment system in all government departments and institutions,” indicating that “this matter is among the priorities of the government program and ministerial approach, and the government’s efforts to enhance transparency and simplify procedures provided to citizens.”

He added that “the adoption of this system is based on the government’s vision to develop the financial transactions environment and reduce reliance on paper money, which contributes to combating corruption and reducing opportunities for financial manipulation, as well as facilitating the process of collecting money from citizens and other companies and institutions.”

He pointed out that "the electronic payment process offers many advantages, most notably simplifying procedures and accelerating the completion of transactions by reducing the time required to complete payment transactions, and enabling payment at any time and from anywhere, as well as enhancing financial transparency and accountability through the existence and organization of a database and electronic record for each payment transaction."
He explained that "this contributes to limiting the manipulation of funds entering the state treasury, and also reduces the risks of dealing in cash and reduces the need to carry and circulate paper money, which leads to its damage, loss, or theft."
He emphasized that "electronic payment supports financial inclusion by encouraging citizens to open bank accounts, strengthening bank accounts, using modern banking tools, increasing the efficiency of government collection, increasing collection rates, reducing waste or financial leakage, and controlling the tax collection process." He pointed out that "the General

Secretariat of the Council of Ministers, as the executive body of the government and the executive arm of the Council of Ministers, is closely monitoring the implementation of this approach with all ministries, institutions, and governorates, as well as following up on the implementation of decisions issued by the government, in cooperation with relevant authorities, to ensure the success of the application and the achievement of the desired objectives, which will positively reflect on the level of services provided to citizens."

He continued, "The government directives included all official institutions, all of which are currently working electronically to collect and collect money from citizens." He pointed out that "the government directive was also directed to all private sector entities, including public clinics, doctors' clinics, pharmacies, markets, stores, fuel stations, and all other entities that operate in direct contact with citizens through sales operations."
He pointed out that "there is widespread acceptance by citizens in the final stages, which has encouraged all private sector entities to use electronic points of sale."




A decision will be issued today." A parliamentarian told Al-Jabal that an agreement had been reached regarding the payment of salaries to Kurdistan Region employees.

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"A decision will be issued today." A parliamentarian told Al-Jabal that an agreement had been reached regarding the payment of salaries to Kurdistan Region employees.

A member of the Iraqi parliament stated that the Iraqi government is expected to vote on sending financial dues for the salaries of Kurdistan Region employees for last May.

 

After more than two years of debate over the resumption of oil exports from Kurdistan and the disbursement of salaries to residents of the region, the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government have been engaged in intensive negotiations for a week. The two sides have reached an agreement in principle, and all that remains is for it to be signed and officially announced. This agreement is expected to be discussed during today's cabinet meeting, according to sources. 

 

Iraqi parliament member Sherwan Dubardani, representing the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), told the Al-Jabal platform on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, that "the Kurdistan Regional Government delegation returned to Erbil last night. An agreement was reached, and this agreement will be discussed between Erbil and Baghdad during the cabinet meeting."

 

The meeting is also expected to decide on the issue of funding the salaries of Kurdistan Region employees for the month of May.

 

According to the MP, "The Kurdistan Region has expressed its full readiness to abide by all constitutional issues between the two sides, and Baghdad must abide by its decisions."

 

The federal government promised the Kurdistan Regional Government that it would send May salaries to the region in the coming days.

 

A senior government official told Al-Jabal in this regard, "This is just a promise. The decision to send has not yet been made, and we are not sure whether the promise will be fulfilled or not, because they have made promises several times in the past and have not fulfilled them."


After failing to reach an agreement with Baghdad, a key government meeting was held in Erbil.

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The Kurdistan Regional Government will hold a session tomorrow, Wednesday, to discuss the May and June salaries, while the re-export of the region's oil will be another topic of discussion.

According to information available to Al-Masry, the Kurdistan Regional Government's Council of Ministers will hold a session tomorrow to discuss the results of the region's delegation's meetings with the federal government.

The Kurdistan delegation's meetings in Baghdad over the past few days have yielded no results, despite assurances from MPs and political sources that an agreement is close to being reached on salaries and the resumption of the region's oil exports.

According to sources, the federal government is expected to send May salaries until Erbil and Baghdad reach an agreement on oil exports and the release of half of the region's oil revenues.

Turkiye to increase water releases to Iraq

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Turkiye to increase water releases to Iraq

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to immediately release 420 cubic meters of water per second to Iraq, Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani announced on Tuesday.

According to a statement from al-Mashhadani’s media office, the speaker had urged the Turkish leadership to give special attention to Iraq’s water needs and to increase the flow of water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, particularly to drought-hit areas in southern Iraq.

Erdogan reportedly expressed his country’s commitment to sharing its water resources with Iraq, framing it as a fraternal duty. “Turkiye shares what god has given it with its brothers in Iraq and will not withhold it from them.”

Al-Mashhadani also emphasized the need to resolve residency-related issues facing Iraqis in Turkiye and to ease bureaucratic procedures, urging Ankara to avoid abrupt deportations of Iraqi residents.

Earlier, Al-Mashhadani and his Turkish counterpart agreed to boost economic ties, support Turkish investment in Iraq, and strengthen parliamentary cooperation through dialogue, expertise exchange, and coordinated positions in international forums.

 

Al-Nusairi: The Central Bank is making fruitful efforts in the first half of 2025 to achieve the comprehensive banking reform project.

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Economic and banking advisor Samir Al-Nusairi affirmed on Wednesday that the Central Bank's measures and efforts during the first half of 2025 were fruitful in implementing the objectives of the comprehensive banking reform project, in cooperation with the government and international consulting and auditing firms, particularly Oliver & Wyman, and the goals and initiatives of its third strategy for 2024-2026.  

 

Al-Nusairi spoke about the challenges facing the Iraqi economy and the opportunities for reforming the banking sector within the government's framework, as well as the prospects of the Central Bank's future vision for the role of the banking sector in sustainable development. He also spoke about the efforts currently being made to activate and revolutionize productive economic sectors other than oil, to diversify sources of national income and achieve financial sustainability, and the role of the Central Bank in regulating foreign trade financing.
Completing infrastructure projects to achieve comprehensive digital transformation and expanding the use of electronic payment tools to achieve financial inclusion.

 

Al-Nusairi explained that opportunities for reforming and developing the banking sector in 2025 are based on the following objectives:

First: Developing the Iraqi banking system and its compliance with international banking and accounting standards. 

 

Second: Enhancing citizens' confidence in the banking sector locally, and internationally recognizing its transparency, progress, and strict adherence to international standards, and gaining the trust of reputable correspondent banks to deal with it.
 
Third: Transforming banks to their primary function, which is financing and bank lending for development. Strengthening financial inclusion and increasing its current rate as planned.

Fourth: Banks that do not provide loans and banking facilities that contribute to development, as they are the lever of sustainable development, lose their meaning as banks, which requires a specific position from the Central Bank in 2025.

Fifth: Strengthening procedures and decisions to transition from a cash economy to a digital economy and withdrawing funds outside the banking cycle and bringing them into the banking system.

He pointed out that all the above objectives, although the period specified for their implementation according to the banking reform project and the Central Bank strategy ranges between (1-4 years), what was achieved in 2023 and 2024 until 6/30/2025 constitutes ambitious percentages as announced, which led to the evaluation and classification of banks based on their achievement of the planned objectives. There are banks moving towards the required development and banks that still need an additional period of time to achieve the objectives, and there are troubled banks that are now making exceptional efforts from the Central Bank and the administrations of these banks to rehabilitate them.



Iraq suspends official work next Sunday

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Sunday, July 6, 2025, is an official holiday for all ministries and government institutions, coinciding with the tenth of Muharram, the anniversary of the killing of Imam Hussein ibn Ali, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad and his daughter Fatima al-Zahra, according to the official holidays in Iraq.

The Cabinet Affairs and Committees Department at the General Secretariat of the Cabinet clarified in a statement today, Tuesday, that the holiday came based on the provisions of Article (1/First/C) of the Official Holidays Law (12 of 2024).

Shia Muslims commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, his family, and his companions in the Karbala massacre, and the commemoration continues until the Arbaeen pilgrimage, forty days after the day of Ashura.

 

Iran acknowledges significant damage to its nuclear facilities and denies requesting resumption of negotiations with Washington.

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 The Iranian government acknowledged, on Tuesday, that a number of its nuclear facilities suffered heavy losses as a result of the recent Israeli attacks, stressing at the same time that there is no official move to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said in a statement that "Iran's nuclear facilities have indeed suffered significant damage, and this has been confirmed by a number of senior state officials, but talk of the complete destruction of these facilities is inaccurate and exaggerated."

Mohajerani indicated that "Iran has not requested to return to the negotiating table with Washington, and the decision regarding the future of the nuclear negotiations has not yet been made, and there is no imminent or scheduled round yet."

She confirmed: "Significant damage has been inflicted on residential infrastructure, affecting about 3,500 housing units across the country, including 332 units in the capital, Tehran," according to data from the Iranian Crisis Management Organization.

Mohajerani also announced the martyrdom of 935 people, including 140 women and children, during the military escalation with Israel, in addition to the injury of 5,646 others who visited health institutions, according to statistics from the Iranian Ministry of Health.

These statements come amid escalating regional tensions, amid international questions about the future of the Iranian nuclear file after the military strikes, which were described as the most severe in recent years. 

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Iraqi Prime Minister to BBC: Iraq will not allow its skies to become a battleground for other parties


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Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during an interview with Nafisa Kohnavard, the BBC's Middle East correspondent. Al-Sudani sits in a chair in front of the BBC correspondent, who is also sitting in a chair.

  • July 1, 2025
  Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani told the BBC that "the regime in Iran is not as weak as it is portrayed, and it ".could collapse quickly. It is a deeply rooted regime with many supporters and adherents In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Al-Sudani spoke about the reaction of some members of the Iranian opposition to the .Israeli-American military campaign against the country The Iraqi Prime Minister said, "There is one characteristic that distinguishes the Iranian nation: a nation that loves its country. ".Even the opposition stood by the regime during this war. We have heard of well-known figures who did the same But he warned against "hasty calculations" regarding the regime's rapid collapse, which could create a "security vacuum" and ."destabilize" the entire region, which is already turbulent and unstable When asked whether such a scenario could succeed, and how it might affect Iraq specifically, Al-Sudani used a metaphor, saying: "Logic dictates that if a fire breaks out anywhere in the vicinity, it will spread throughout the region. No one is immune to this ".fire  
 
 He added that Iraq has "real, not theoretical, concerns" that the war could spread throughout the region Although the Israeli attack on Iran came as a surprise to many Iranians, the Iraqi government saw signs that a military campaign .was on the way Al-Sudani continued in his interview with the BBC, saying, "During the 48 hours preceding the war, all assessments—security, ".political, and even media outlets reporting from the affected areas—indicated that military action was imminent .He said that Iraq was warning its neighbors of the dangers of such aggression During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, Israeli aircraft repeatedly used Iraqi airspace to bomb targets deep inside Iranian territory, an act that Al-Sudani described as a violation of his country's sovereignty. Iraq filed a complaint with the United .Nations Baghdad also expressed its opposition to such a violation, but no one was able to prevent Israeli fighters from flying freely in .Iraqi airspace  
  Al-Sudani explained, "We do not have an adequate air defense system equipped with advanced technology to confront such ".violations .This was in effect dragging Iraq into a war it was not a part of," he added"  
 
 
 Al-Sudani continued his statements to the BBC, saying, "We will certainly continue with our plans, and we will not allow any country—whether Israel or anyone else—to violate Iraqi airspace. ".We will use all possible means Al-Sudani confirmed that Iraq has received parts of the radar .system and will receive the bulk of it this year We will receive the first shipment from South Korea, but we need" more, and as a government, we will seek to achieve this .acquisition," he added During his interview with the BBC, the Iraqi Prime Minister criticized the United States' handling of Israeli aircraft violations .of Iraqi airspace He explained that when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles toward Iraqi territory, targeting American bases there, in retaliation for the killing of the IRGC's Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani, or when it targeted armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraqi Kurdistan, the United States consistently and firmly accused Iran of disrespecting its neighbor's .sovereignty, but it did not respond in kind when it came to Israel Al-Sudani agrees that this is a "double standard," and that such an approach by the United States would "undermine that .relationship" between Baghdad and Washington as partners  
 

 

  "!When asked whether the United States had warned Baghdad that it would attack Iran, Al-Sudani said: "Absolutely not He said the attack was a surprise, and that the United States "was not supposed to enter the war as a unilateral party, because ".that would lead to further escalation. That's exactly what happened, and that's what we've been warning about .The United States joined the Israeli campaign, carrying out massive attacks on Iranian nuclear sites This comes at a time when Tehran and its allied Iraqi Shiite groups have been constantly threatening to target US bases and .interests if the Americans participate in a war against Iran In response to these threats, the US embassy in Baghdad announced that it would evacuate most of its employees and their .families. US bases in the region—including those in Iraq—were placed on high alert But ultimately, after advance warning, Iran responded, launching an attack on only the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which serves .as the command center for the US military in the region  

 

 A different version

 

In an interview with BBC English, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani confirmed that Iraq was prepared to confront the repercussions of the recent war and succeeded through an effective diplomatic role in sparing the country from its consequences. He emphasized that Iraq's sovereignty is not subject to negotiation.

Al-Sudani explained that the violation of Iraqi airspace by the "Israeli" entity constitutes a violation of sovereignty and a breach of the UN Charter, noting that a formal complaint has been filed with the Security Council and that diplomatic action has been taken to support the Iraqi position. He revealed contracts to build an integrated air defense system, with plans to conclude additional agreements to protect Iraqi airspace.

The Prime Minister noted that Iraq has adopted balanced diplomacy to deliver warning messages about the danger of the war expanding and its impact on Iraq's security and stability, as well as its repercussions on oil exports and energy security in the region.

Al-Sudani praised the stance of the religious authority in Najaf, which warned of the dangers of the continuation of the war, stressing that the government, with the support of national forces, succeeded in protecting Iraq from slipping into conflict.

He reiterated Iraq's unwavering support for the Palestinian cause and its commitment to the resolution of war and peace through state institutions. He also noted balanced relations with Iran and the United States, and both countries' commitment to Iraq's stability.

He warned against the Netanyahu government's efforts to create new crises in the region, criticizing the media's focus on Iraq and its disregard for events in other countries in the region.

Al-Sudani revealed that the international coalition's mission in Iraq will end by September 2026, noting that Iraq is conducting talks to transition to bilateral security relations. Two rounds of dialogue have already been held with Washington, and a third is expected to formulate the relationship in accordance with the constitution and law.

On the domestic front, he emphasized the importance of elections as a democratic message, affirming the government's commitment to holding them on time and completing a national project that prioritizes citizens' interests.

He pointed to the achievements made in construction and reconstruction projects in the capital and the governorates, despite the challenges, and explained that the volume of Arab and foreign investments exceeded $88 billion over the past two years, with the private sector playing an important role in supporting the national economy.


Trump urges Hamas to accept 'final proposal' for 60-day Gaza truce

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump urged the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas to agree to what he called the “final proposal” for a 60-day ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, which will be presented by mediating officials from Qatar and Egypt.

 

In a social media post, Trump said his representatives had a "long and productive" meeting with Israeli officials regarding Gaza.

Trump did not reveal his representatives, but a meeting was scheduled between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer.

Trump said that Israel had agreed to the terms of a 60-day ceasefire, "during which time we will work with all parties to end the war," noting that representatives from Qatar and Egypt would deliver "this final proposal" to Hamas.

The US president said, "I hope, for the sake of the Middle East, that Hamas accepts this deal, because the situation will not improve; it will only get worse. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Trump had told reporters earlier on Tuesday that he hoped a ceasefire agreement in exchange for hostages would be reached next week between Israel and Hamas.

Trump is scheduled to meet with Netanyahu at the White House on Monday.

Hamas has said it is willing to release the remaining hostages in Gaza under any agreement to end the war, while Israel says it will not end the war until Hamas is disarmed and dismantled.

Hamas refuses to lay down its weapons.

The war in Gaza erupted when militants led by Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, according to Israeli statistics.

Neither side has shown any signs of being willing to make any concessions.

The United States proposed a 60-day ceasefire and the release of half the hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the remains of other Palestinians.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said earlier this week that Israel had agreed to a 60-day ceasefire and a hostage deal proposed by the United States, holding Hamas responsible.

Trump and his aides appear to be seeking to capitalize on any momentum from US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, as well as last week's ceasefire in this conflict, to secure a permanent truce in the war in Gaza.

Trump told reporters during a visit to Florida that he would be "very firm" with Netanyahu on the need for a swift ceasefire in Gaza, noting that Netanyahu also wants a swift ceasefire.

"We hope that happens. We look forward to it happening sometime next week... We want to get the hostages out," the US president said.

The Gaza Ministry of Health says the Israeli military offensive that followed the October 7 attack killed more than 56,000 Palestinians, caused a famine crisis, displaced the entire population of Gaza, and prompted charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice and war crimes charges at the International Criminal Court. Israel denies these charges.


Human investment in economic development

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Investing in human energy is crucial to achieving the goals of development and raising industrial production. Investing it properly also motivates us to increase the capacity of this contribution, along with good performance in the national labor market. 

This advancement requires activating the Product Protection Law to stand firmly against the flooding of Iraqi markets with products described as substandard and to limit the leakage of hard currency out of Iraq.

 It also requires mobilizing efforts to achieve a major industrial revolution in which local products dominate. This phase we are experiencing represents an awakening from the impact of the flooding of foreign goods and commodities that have long lingered in the Iraqi market. This calls for a mobilization of national governmental and societal efforts to improve the industrial sector, increase the production capacities of various factories, and revive those that have stalled. 

Radical reforms to the state's structure and its various production facilities, where disguised unemployment, bureaucracy, and a weak sense of responsibility are rampant, can be achieved by properly reconsidering the formulation of laws in a manner consistent with the state's aspirations under the true democracy of the Iraqi people, especially since we today perceive the presence of a genuine national will. 

In this regard, it is necessary to strive and feel responsible for completing the stalled and suspended investment projects and activating their infrastructure, which will enhance the stability of the industrial and agricultural base. Also, enhancing the citizen’s confidence and good sense of responsibility and spreading the spirit of contribution and positive practice of work for the people’s lives falls on the state and within its programs to deepen feelings of love for performance and effective activity in the fields of production. 

Investment for development will not reach the desired level unless cooperation between the state and the citizen is strengthened. 

Therefore, investing in human energy is crucial to achieving development goals and enhancing industrial production. Investing it properly also motivates us to increase the capacity of this contribution, along with good professional performance in the labor market.

 

The "balances" tax: Baghdad-Washington relations are on the verge of collapse

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It is difficult to imagine the course of relations between the United States and Iraq in the coming period, except for two options: either ending it or maintaining the status quo, which serves neither party's interests.

According to a report issued by the Atlantic Council, translated by Shafaq News Agency, relations are under constant pressure from Tehran, with the aim of undermining them, especially after the outbreak of the "Israeli-Iranian" war and Washington's involvement in it on Israel's behalf.

Post-escalation Iraq

The report noted that "US-Iraqi relations were already strained even before the recent conflict between Israel and Iran erupted, and that popular opposition to the US military presence prompted Baghdad and Washington to agree to reduce the role of US forces in the fight against ISIS and move toward a new model of security cooperation."

However, according to the report, Iranian-backed militias have repeatedly launched attacks on US forces in response to Washington's support for Israeli military operations in Gaza, and have targeted US and US-linked companies, diminishing the already weak interest in expanding economic ties.

According to the American Institute's report, in light of this reality, with security cooperation dwindling and opportunities for expansion into other areas absent, the options for the relationship are now limited to continuing the unproductive current situation or complete separation, which does not fully serve the interests of either party.

However, the report explained that "appearances can be deceiving, as significant progress has been made in the recent period on the security and economic fronts, particularly after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's visit to Washington in April 2024, despite the escalation of the war in Gaza at the time."

In light of this, the report noted that "relations between Washington and Baghdad are now at a crossroads," indicating that "Baghdad may side with Tehran and demand the departure of the remaining American advisors, leading to a reduction or even termination of relations with the United States."

conditional opportunity

According to the report, there is an opportunity that Washington can exploit to support Baghdad's efforts to reduce its economic and energy dependence on Iran and build Iraq's capacity to resist Tehran's ongoing attempts to undermine its independence and sovereignty.

Both the United States and Iraq have always had to balance their relations with each other and with Iran, according to the same report. Washington has sought to build a stronger relationship with Baghdad while maintaining a policy of deterrence toward Tehran, while Iraq has had to reconcile its two conflicting partners in a way that allows it to deal with each side without exposing itself to pressure from the other.

The report noted that Iran not only played an indirect role, but also used its Iraqi proxies to pressure the Iraqi government and reduce cooperation with the United States in an attempt to expel American forces. This has hindered Iraq's recovery and slowed political reconciliation and economic growth.

He added, "The trilemma of balancing between Washington, Baghdad, and Tehran has created chronic problems. Attacks on US forces present Washington with two costly choices: either respond, thereby fueling popular opposition, or not respond, which encourages further attacks. In both cases, the Iraqi government is forced to make difficult decisions between supporting Washington and appeasing its domestic allies."

However, the report noted that "Iran today finds itself in a difficult position due to several factors: its inability to protect its airspace, losses among its military and scientific leadership, and mounting domestic public anger. This is driving it to increase pressure on Baghdad to end its cooperation with Washington."

Sovereignty and interests

The report warned that continued Iranian pressure could push Iraq into a military response to Israeli violations of its airspace. Iran's proxies could use this as a pretext to strike Israeli and American targets, this time under the banner of "defending Iraqi sovereignty," a slogan that could garner greater political support than simply "defending Iran."

However, such a scenario could push relations to the breaking point, leaving Washington with no choice but to suspend most security cooperation programs with Iraq, according to the report.

In contrast, the report believes that "Iraq is unlikely to choose to fully align with Iran, especially since the militias, despite their rhetoric, have a lot to lose if the conflict with Israel or the United States escalates. Their losses will not only be material and human, but will also extend to disrupting the oil smuggling network, which represents a major source of influence and funding. Some estimates indicate that Iran and its proxies generate more than a billion dollars annually from these operations."

The report concluded that the best the United States can hope for is what Al-Sudani offered during his visit to Washington: a continued security relationship and expanded energy cooperation.   The future of relations between Iraq and the United States, as the report sees it, is not as bleak as it appears, but it is also not as promising as hoped.

The report continued, saying: "Amid rapidly changing regional dynamics, the relationship remains fragile, uncertain, and highly sensitive to any development. However, while Baghdad rejects an overt alliance with Washington at the expense of Tehran, it simultaneously demonstrates a degree of restraint in the face of Iranian pressure and militia provocations, demonstrating its continued commitment to maintaining a relationship with Washington."

The report concluded by stating that "US influence in Iraq will not depend in the future on hard power, but rather on Washington's ability to support Iraq's sovereignty and economic resilience. It calls for adopting an approach based on 'constructive opportunism', grounded in sufficient communication to enable the rapid and effective identification of opportunities and expansion of areas of cooperation."

 

Reuters: Iran has made preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz.

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The European Union affirms its readiness to facilitate the resumption of nuclear talks with Tehran.

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On June 22, shortly after the United States bombed three major Iranian nuclear sites in an attempt to cripple Tehran's nuclear program, the Iranian parliament reportedly endorsed a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Two US officials said that the Iranian military loaded sea mines onto ships in the Gulf in June, a move that increased Washington's concerns that Tehran was preparing to close the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli strikes on sites across Iran.

The two officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that these previously unreported preparations, which were discovered by US intelligence, took place some time after Israel launched its initial missile attack on Iran on June 13.

The loading of the mines—which were not deployed in the strait—suggests that Tehran may be serious about closing one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, a move that would have inflamed an already escalating conflict and severely disrupted global trade.

About a fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz , and its closure could cause a sharp rise in global energy prices. However, oil prices have fallen by more than 10 percent since the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, driven in part by relief that the conflict has not caused major disruptions to crude trade.

Iranian Parliament's support

On June 22, shortly after the United States bombed three major Iranian nuclear sites in an attempt to cripple Tehran's nuclear program, the Iranian parliament reportedly endorsed a measure to close the strait.

However, the decision was not binding, and it was up to Iran's Supreme National Security Council to make the final decision on the closure, according to Iran's Press TV at the time.

Iran had previously threatened to close the strait, but did not carry out the threat.

Reuters was unable to determine exactly when Tehran loaded the mines onto the ships during the air war between Israel and Iran, which, if deployed, would have prevented ships from passing through Hormuz. It is also unclear whether the mines have been unloaded since then.

The sources did not disclose how the United States determined that mines were being loaded onto Iranian ships, but such intelligence is typically gathered through satellite imagery, covert human sources, or a combination of both.

"Thanks to the president's brilliant execution of Operation Midnight Hammer, the successful campaign against the Houthis, and the maximum pressure campaign, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, freedom of navigation has been restored, and Iran has been significantly weakened," a White House official said when asked to comment on Iran's preparations.

The Pentagon has not yet responded to a request for comment, and the Iranian mission to the United Nations has not yet responded to requests for comment.

vital corridor

The two officials said the US government has not ruled out the possibility that the mines were loaded, adding that the Iranians may have installed the mines to convince Washington of Tehran's seriousness in closing the strait, but without any intention of doing so.

The Iranian military may simply be making preparations, should Iran's leaders issue the order.

nuclear talks

For her part, European Union foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas announced on Tuesday, following a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Brussels' readiness to facilitate the resumption of negotiations with Tehran regarding the future of his country's nuclear program.

Kallas wrote on the X platform that, following the Israeli and US strikes on Iran, "the resumption of negotiations aimed at ending the Iranian nuclear program should take place as soon as possible," as should "cooperation" with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The foreign policy chief confirmed that "the European Union is ready to facilitate this matter," but at the same time warned Iran that "any threat to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty does not help ease tensions, and that is what I told (Araghchi) today."

Kallas' statement came a day after the Iranian foreign minister ruled out a quick resumption of talks between his country and the United States regarding Iran's nuclear program, stressing on Monday that his country first needed to ensure that Washington would not launch further strikes against it.

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