The Iraqi dinar: stable and consistent
Amidst the analyses and speculations circulating that raise questions about the fate of the national currency, official facts and data confirm that talk of any change in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar is nothing more than speculation that is not based on any sound economic foundation.
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Through a careful reading of the economic reality and the official statements of the Central Bank of Iraq, it becomes clear that the stability of the exchange rate is the fixed strategic option that is being defended with effective monetary tools and a huge balance of foreign reserves.
The Central Bank of Iraq places the stability of the exchange rate at the heart of its priorities, in accordance with the law that governs its work and aims to ensure price stability. The bank’s statements were clear and decisive in denying any intention or the existence of any serious study to reduce the value of the dinar, as such a decision has no economic justification in the current circumstances.
The facts on the ground speak for themselves clearly: huge foreign reserves exceeding $95 billion form a protective shield that ensures hard currency liquidity and covers all external strengthening needs of the national economy.
The Central Bank’s firm policies have also proven effective in maintaining the stability of the official and parallel exchange rates, as they have succeeded in narrowing the gap between them significantly, supported by the flow of oil revenues, which constitute a stable source of hard currency. This stability in the exchange rate has been a key pillar behind achieving low inflation rates, the lowest in the region, which has contributed to protecting the purchasing power of citizens and maintaining stable living conditions.
The Central Bank remains vigilant against all rumors and ill-considered analyses aimed at undermining confidence in the national currency and creating market instability. It possesses all the necessary regulatory and financial tools to counter such attempts and maintain the stability of the dinar. Exchange rate stability is not merely a number on a screen; it is the cornerstone of the stability of the entire national economy and a guarantee of sustainable development and investor confidence.
In conclusion, the future of the Iraqi dinar is shaped by a strong economic reality and a wise monetary policy that refuses to be swayed by any pressures or rumors, stressing that stability is the most prominent theme in the coming period.
A government advisor reveals the truth about the financial situation in Iraq...no cause for concern.
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed that what is being circulated about Iraq going through a severe financia crisis and being unable to pay salaries is part of a “heated political season in which negative rumors against Iraq abound,” stressing that most of what is being raised is not based on facts.
Saleh adds in a press statement that Iraq has high financial capabilities, including good oil revenues and non-oil revenues, and that the government places salaries, wages, pensions and social welfare at the top of its priorities, explaining that any delay in payment is technical and simple and happens occasionally.
He points out that the current wave of fear-mongering has put citizens in a state of unjustified anxiety, stressing that “Iraq is not a besieged country and is not at war, and the financial and monetary policies are working to ensure a decent life, from the food basket to salaries and infrastructure, and everything that is being raised about cutting salaries or reducing the value of the dinar or an economic collapse is nothing but lies upon lies,” as he put it.
Pressure on the central bank to change the exchange rate constitutes interference with its independence.
Samir Al-Nassiri
After the announcement of the final election results, and for the political and self-serving interests of some influential figures, speculators, and traders who deal in illegal trade through direct transfers outside the controls of the Central Bank, official border crossings, and the new instructions for prior customs registration starting from 12/1/2025, which ensure control over the government's customs revenues.
About a week ago, media pressure began, directed by some specialists, non-specialists, and self-proclaimed analysts who frequently appear on media channels with vested interests and on social media, with the aim of disrupting the Iraqi market, which has remained stable throughout 2025 due to the wise monetary policies and efforts made by the Central Bank, which maintained the general price level and kept the inflation rate below 1%, controlled the money supply, and built sufficient foreign reserves to cover the local currency in circulation and cover imports.
He is currently implementing an ambitious project for a comprehensive and radical reform of the banking sector. He receives continuous praise from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the US Treasury for the steps he has taken in implementing monetary policy over the past three years. Since December 19, 2020, when the exchange rate was adjusted by the Central Bank under pressure from the previous government, and up to the present time, the exchange rate of the dinar has continued to fluctuate up and down in the parallel market, even after it was adjusted again in 2023. Due to the Central Bank's measures mentioned above, relative stability has been achieved despite all the internal and external challenges, and all the speculators' plans to weaken the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar have failed.
We must also not forget, clearly and precisely, that there is an organized lobby working against achieving monetary stability, led and implemented by multiple entities linked to speculators and corrupt individuals who have a special agenda to weaken and harm the national economy by fabricating news and statements, spreading rumors and flawed and paid economic analyses, and turning them from reassuring news for the market and citizens into news that confuses the market and creates panic among citizens. This is what is actually happening now, which requires clarification here, as it has been happening for about ten years.
Particularly after the financial and security shocks of mid-2014, a culture of reliance on the central bank to confront economic and financial crises and challenges became entrenched. This is done by using its monetary policy tools and mechanisms to overcome the government's liquidity shortage and its inability to pay salaries on time, as well as the failure of fiscal policy by relying on foreign currency reserves. These reserves are not, in reality, the government's reserves, but rather the central bank's reserves, used to control the stability of the exchange rate, according to the target, and to address the balance of payments deficit.
The central bank has been burdened with the problems of other stakeholders, which is not its primary role. It is not responsible for the shortfall in non-oil revenues, the balance of payments deficit, the trade deficit, or the fluctuations in global oil prices. Therefore, foreign currency reserves have risen and fallen due to these flawed policies, which are not based on a clear and defined economic strategy or methodology.
Therefore, the return of stability to the exchange rate to its targeted and balanced rates will be achieved with the support of the concerned authorities in the government by activating other productive sectors, reforming the financial and banking sector, drawing up clear financial policies in coordination with monetary policy and its currently adopted applications and tools, and overcoming the challenges of achieving economic stability, which means achieving stability in the financial and monetary system. This is not only the duty of the Central Bank alone, but it is a fundamental duty of fiscal policy and the government’s approach to managing the economy, activating sources of national income other than oil, supporting, protecting and encouraging local production, generalizing the activation of dealing in the Iraqi dinar in all internal cash trading activities, expanding the use of electronic payment methods and enhancing digital transformation.
In particular, it must be emphasized here clearly that all the pressures currently being exerted on the Central Bank to change the exchange rate are not a solution to address the liquidity shortage, but rather an interference in its independence and an abolition of its role and responsibility in its tasks and objectives as stated in its Law No. 56 of 2004, which is in force.
US State Department: Michael Regas will visit Baghdad soon... and then open the Erbil consulate
The US State Department announced that Deputy Secretary of State Michael Regas will visit Baghdad to meet with officials, as well as Erbil to inaugurate the US consulate, in addition to visiting Istanbul and occupied Jerusalem.
According to a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and followed by “Al-Jabal”, “Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources (Michael Regas) will visit Turkey, Iraq and Israel, during the period: November 27 – December 5, with the aim of visiting Istanbul, Baghdad, Erbil and Jerusalem.”
The statement said: "The visit of the Deputy Secretary of State (Regas) is a clear indication of the United States' commitment to working to support the stability, security, prosperity, and religious and ideological freedom of the region."
The statement elaborated that "in Turkey, Rigas will head the United States diplomatic delegation visiting Turkey to commemorate the 1700th anniversary of the founding of the First Council of Nicaea," adding: "Rigas will hold a series of meetings with his Turkish counterparts to work on strengthening bilateral US-Turkish relations, as well as meeting with the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople (Bartholomew I)."
In Iraq, he will meet with a number of Iraqi officials, then visit American diplomatic facilities, in addition to inaugurating the new Consulate General building in Erbil.
The statement noted that "Deputy Secretary of State (Regas)'s visit to Israel will underscore the strength and depth of the relationship between the United States and Israel, amid work to develop diplomatic facilities and ensure that foreign assistance serves the strategic interests of the United States."
Asiacell and Cisco are collaborating to enhance network reliability with artificial intelligence in Iraq.
Asiacell, the leading mobile network operator in Iraq, today announced its partnership with Cisco, a global leader in networking and cybersecurity, to deploy the AI-powered Provider Connectivity Assurance (PCA) platform across its networks. This advanced network automation and assurance platform will enhance the intelligence and reliability of Asiacell’s network, aiming to deliver superior digital experiences across all 19 governorates of Iraq.
Asiacell will leverage Cisco’s AI-enhanced platform for proactive monitoring, analysis, and optimization of network performance. The technology provides real-time predictive insights across all layers of Asiacell’s network connectivity and services, automatically detecting indicators of abnormalities, diagnosing root causes, and accelerating problem resolution before they impact its 19.7 million subscribers. This enables Asiacell’s dedicated enterprise and mobile network operations teams to deliver AI-powered, self-healing network capabilities, ensuring improved service quality for its customers.
Hassan Al Shami, Chief Information and Innovation Officer at Asiacell, said: “With Cisco’s AI-powered Provider Connectivity Assurance platform, we are taking a major step towards smart and automated network operations. The result will be a more resilient and self-optimizing network that keeps pace with the demands of digital services and the development of 5G technologies. The ability to predict and prevent service issues before they occur will transform the way we serve our customers. This project reflects our commitment to technological leadership and delivering the most reliable digital experience in Iraq.”
Zayan Sadiq, General Manager of Service Providers for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region at Cisco, said: "At Cisco, we understand that achieving superior business results in today's digital landscape requires consistently delivering exceptional digital experiences to every user, everywhere, and at all times."
He explained: “This collaboration embodies Cisco’s strategic investment in driving digital transformation and innovation in artificial intelligence across the region, by injecting intelligence directly into the Asiacell network, enabling the leading operator in Iraq to deliver proactive and seamless experiences to millions of subscribers.”
(Documents) The Central Bank classifies social media celebrities as “high risk”
The Central Bank of Iraq announced new measures to regulate banks' dealings with social media celebrities and influencers, after classifying them as categories that require higher oversight due to the diversity of their income sources and the financial risks that may accompany them.
The bank stated in its circular addressed to all banks that celebrities are considered “high-risk” clients, given the possibility that some activities may be linked to money laundering and terrorist financing risks.
The circular indicated the need to obligate influencers to disclose marketing and advertising contracts, provide accurate financial statements, as well as provide banks with links to their social media accounts and recent photos showing the number of followers when opening any bank account, while continuously monitoring financial transfers and verifying their sources.
The document is 8 pages all in arrabic
Public debt: Between a secure reality and an urgent need for a new economic reform model
Although the public debt appears to be in a safe area according to international indicators, analysts are pushing for a comprehensive restructuring that transforms debts into productive assets through modern economic swaps.
Economic experts and specialists have downplayed the risks of Iraq’s internal and external public debt, stressing that its ratio is still within the safe international standard range, and that the strength of the foreign currency reserves has contributed to the stability of Iraq’s financial situation.
The opinions of experts and specialists in economic affairs were consistent with the assurances of the Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih, who indicated that only $3 billion, which is all that remains of the Paris Club debt, will be settled by 2028, and that 47% of the internal debt is still within the investment portfolio of the Central Bank of Iraq, and is covered as cash liquidity or cash liabilities at a rate of more than 100% in foreign currency thanks to the strength of Iraq’s foreign reserves.
Debt repayment mechanism
Saleh said that there is an amount of less than $6 billion of external debt being withdrawn and spent on projects in the liberated areas, from loans provided by international development funds, all of which will also be paid in the current decade, in addition to an external debt of about $9 billion that will be paid gradually in the next decade.
He explained that the federal general budget establishes a precise mechanism for settling external debts and their due dates on an annual level with a high degree of regularity, which has made Iraq’s credit rating more stable at level B during the last ten years.
He added that the external public debt does not exceed, under any circumstances, between 7 and 8% of the gross domestic product, which is within the safe international standard range that allows public debt to output to be 60%.
He pointed out that fluctuations in the price of oil, the main source of the general budget, between 2014 and recently, and other external factors, led to government borrowing from the local banking market, which led to an increase in the internal public debt to approximately 92 trillion Iraqi dinars.
Investment portfolio
The government advisor explained that 47% of the internal debt remains within the investment portfolio of the Central Bank of Iraq, and it is covered as cash liquidity or cash liabilities at a rate of more than 100% in foreign currency thanks to the strength of Iraq’s foreign reserves.
He stressed that the total internal and external public debt as a percentage of GDP is still within the safe international standard range and does not exceed 35% to 40% of the country’s GDP under any circumstances.
Saleh stressed the positive role played by monetary policy in what is called “monetary adjustment”, by facilitating the acceptance of bonds, bills or treasury bills under which the public finances borrowed through market operations and absorbing them within the investment portfolio of the Central Bank of Iraq at a rate of approximately 47%, which maximized the liquidity of the economy and broadened the monetary base.
Real assets
Saleh pointed out that the public finances, sooner or later, must begin to accept the adoption of a strict and joint reform program between it as a financial authority and in conjunction with the monetary authority to gradually extinguish the internal public debt by linking that debt and exchanging it for real government assets that are productive or capable of being productive and generate high-value chains that help diversify the national economy, extinguish the debt at the same time and support sustainable development.
Saleh called for the adoption of an economic model for swapping public debt for real government assets, by undertaking the Equity Acquisition process and the productive operation of distressed real government assets and converting them into joint-stock companies in a major partnership model between the state and the private sector.
He also explained that this would allow for the gradual exchange of public debt for those shares tradable in capital markets, and the transformation of (the negative financial shocks that generated and accumulated that debt) into a productive force.
Enhancing production capabilities
In the same context, Alaa Fahd, a member of the media team at the Central Bank of Iraq, stated that the issue of debt is not an exceptional case specific to Iraq alone, as even major countries like the United States have internal and external debts, and it is often considered the most used financial tool in economic growth.
Fahd explained that borrowing is not a problem in itself when it is directed towards investment spending because it creates income and job opportunities and enhances production capabilities. He pointed out that the internal debt, which currently amounts to about 91 trillion dinars, can be dealt with in a considerable part because it is owed to state-owned government banks, which makes it less dangerous. However, the continued reliance on borrowing is a warning bell that calls for serious treatment.
He stressed that the solution lies in diversifying non-oil revenues and not being satisfied with a single resource, in addition to enhancing electronic collection of taxes and customs, and opening the way for investments and partnerships with the private sector to reduce pressure on public finances, calling for the revitalization of stalled sectors such as agriculture, industry, transportation and communications, and negotiating with OPEC Plus to increase Iraq’s oil quota in line with its production capacity.
The 2026 budget is on the planning table... a discussion of the general framework and plans for subsequent years.
The 2026 budget and plans for subsequent years were the focus of a meeting at the Ministry of Planning, where the general framework and proposed projects to be included were discussed.
The ministry stated in a statement , which was reviewed by (Shafaqna Iraq), that “a meeting was held today, Wednesday, to discuss the preparation of the budget for 2026 and the next three years (2026-2027-2028), chaired by the Undersecretary of the Ministry for Technical Affairs, Maher Hammad Johan, and attended by a number of directors general, heads of departments and representatives of relevant departments in the ministry.”
She added that “the meeting’s discussions focused on the general framework of the 2026 budget and plans for subsequent years.”
“Discussions were also held regarding ongoing and new loans and projects proposed for inclusion in the budget, as well as examining the terms of the Chinese framework agreement and the development projects it includes.”
The statement continued, “The meeting also addressed the preparation of appropriate scenarios for the 2026 budget, in preparation for submitting them to decision-makers for approval according to developmental and economic priorities.”
The Central Bank's new mechanism angered speculators... Experts reveal the secret behind the dollar's surge
link
Comments by Al-Marsoumi and Al-Ubaidi
Following yesterday's sudden surge in the dollar exchange rate and the Central Bank's assurances denying any intention to change the rate, economic experts confirmed that the sudden rise in the dollar in Iraqi markets is due to the imminent implementation of a new mechanism. Starting next month, this mechanism will prohibit any bank from executing any transfer unless customs duties are pre-calculated. They explained that the new mechanism will bring about significant changes, most notably a substantial increase in state customs revenues, control over customs smuggling that has drained the country's resources for years, and the prevention of fictitious transfers used for speculation or money laundering. It will also reduce the volume of haphazard imports that consume a large portion of foreign reserves. This mechanism has faced widespread resistance from speculators who exploit every opportunity to raise the dollar's price, from small traders who have not organized their commercial and banking transactions, and from entities that have benefited from the chaos in transfers and customs over the past years, which, according to them, has caused the exchange rate to jump.
Nabil Al-Marsoumi
The decline in the dinar's exchange rate in the parallel market is linked to the imminent implementation of a new mechanism under which, starting from the first of next month, no bank will be allowed to execute any bank transfer unless customs duties have been calculated in advance.
Manar Al-Obaidi
The Iraqi dinar witnessed a significant decline in the parallel market yesterday, coinciding with most speculators refraining from selling dollars, which created a state of confusion and anxiety in the markets.
Despite widespread talk of an intention to change the official exchange rate, the Central Bank's statement was clear and decisive: there will be absolutely no change to the exchange rate.
This announcement alone confirms that the central bank is committed to monetary stability and will not make any changes to the official rate.
What is the real reason behind the fluctuation?
The real movement in the market is not related to the official exchange rate, but rather to the imminent implementation of the pre-calculation mechanism for customs, a long-awaited step.
Starting from 1/12/2025, no bank will be allowed to execute an external transfer unless customs duties have been calculated in advance.
This mechanism will bring about significant changes, most notably:
A significant increase in state customs revenues.
Controlling customs smuggling that has drained the country's resources for years.
Preventing fictitious transfers used for speculation or money laundering.
Reducing the volume of random imports that consume a large part of foreign reserves.
Naturally, any such radical reform will face widespread resistance, especially from speculators who will exploit every opportunity to raise the price of the dollar, from small traders who have not organized their commercial and banking transactions, and from those who have benefited from the chaos in transfers and customs over the past years.
Therefore, we expect a turbulent month of statements, pressure, and media hype.
Why is this mechanism important despite all the noise?
If the mechanism is implemented correctly and continues without setbacks, it will be the biggest blow to customs smuggling operations in 20 years, and it is also capable of:
Increase customs revenues to 6-8 trillion dinars.
Reducing artificial demand for the dollar.
Reduce unnecessary imports.
Protecting foreign reserves.
Enhancing the prestige of the financial and administrative system in Iraq.
In fact, the current government deserves credit for its insistence on implementing this mechanism, as it is a major reform step that requires a courageous decision and patience in the face of pressure.
Yes, there are side effects.
It is natural for markets to experience:
A temporary increase in the prices of some goods.
Fluctuations in the parallel market.
Fierce media campaigns against the decision.
But these changes are temporary pains, similar to the pains of a necessary surgical procedure to repair what years of chaos and smuggling have damaged.
What is happening today is not a monetary crisis, but a natural reaction of a market that has begun to regulate itself after two decades of chaos. If the government succeeds in moving forward and does not succumb to pressure, Iraq will be facing a historic customs reform that will reset foreign trade and protect its reserves from continuous waste.
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Credit rating: International concerns raised about delayed reforms and increased spending ahead of elections
The credit rating that placed Iraq in the ninth category globally reflects the concern of financial institutions about the increase in spending before the elections and the decline in oil revenues, at a time when the economy is witnessing an almost absolute dependence on a single commodity.
The international credit rating agency, Fitch, has listed Iraq in the ninth tier globally at a rating of (B-) with regard to foreign currency, which shows a combination of weak governance and its heavy reliance on oil, against large foreign currency reserves.
He pointed out that the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP will widen in 2025 due to lower oil prices, with oil production expected to rise to 4.3 million barrels per day by 2027, and that delaying the formation of the government due to the lack of a majority winner will delay the 2026 budget.
A report by the US-based economic news website Investing indicated that Fitch Ratings affirmed Iraq’s long-term foreign currency credit rating at “-B” B-, with a stable outlook, citing the country’s heavy reliance on commodities and weak governance, in contrast to its large foreign exchange reserves.
Iraq is heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for about 40 percent of its GDP and 90 percent of government revenue.
Iraq's economic performance
Fitch Ratings expects Iraq’s economic performance to remain primarily dependent on oil price volatility, along with the need for structural reforms that promote economic diversification and improve the efficiency of public spending.
This ranking reveals weak governance indicators in Iraq, placing it in the ninth tier globally, compared to an average of 36% in comparable countries. This weakness is linked to the instability of political institutions and low government effectiveness.
Iraq recently held parliamentary elections in which no bloc or coalition won a majority of seats to form a government, and Fitch expects this situation to lead to a lengthy government formation process and thus delay the approval of the 2026 budget.
As Iraq is an oil-dependent economy, with the sector representing about 40% of GDP, 90% of government revenues, and most of exports, oil production saw a 6% decline in 2024 to 3.8 million barrels per day.
Fitch expects production to return to an average annual growth rate of 6% during 2025-2027, reaching 4.3 million barrels per day, as voluntary cuts are phased out and Kurdistan's oil exports increase.
Financial deficit
The fiscal deficit is projected to widen significantly to 9.7% of GDP in 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024. This is primarily due to lower oil prices, which will reduce total revenues to 32.9% of GDP, down from 38.7%. Total expenditures are also expected to rise to 42.6% from 41.4%, driven by increased spending ahead of the elections.
Government debt is likely to rise sharply to 54.1% of GDP by the end of 2025 and to 62.5% in 2027, exceeding the average of 52.9% for countries with a “B” rating. Most of the financing is expected to come from the Central Bank of Iraq through the indirect purchase of government securities.
Despite these challenges, Fitch affirmed that internal stability in Iraq has remained resilient over the past months, even with escalating regional tensions, noting the country's ability to absorb geopolitical shocks thanks to oil revenues and a marked improvement in the security situation.
Iraq possesses substantial foreign currency reserves; its reserves covered the equivalent of 11.4 months of current external payments by the end of 2024, compared to an average of 5.1 months for countries with a “B” rating. Although these reserves are expected to decline, they will still provide a significant financial safety net.
External position strength
Despite the strong external position, a parallel exchange rate market persists due to severe restrictions on access to US dollars. The average parallel rate reached 1,468 dinars to the dollar as of September 2025, 13% lower than the official rate.
Factors that could lead to a downgrade include a continued high fiscal deficit, increased government debt, or a deteriorating security situation that impacts oil production. Conversely, sustained high oil revenues for Iraq leading to debt reduction, improved economic policies, or enhanced security and governance could result in a rating upgrade.
The credit rating agency Moody's issued a new report on the economic situation in Iraq, indicating that the country faces a high level of financial risks while its credit rating remains at Caa1, a low rating that shows the fragility of the financial situation and the possibility of the country being exposed to economic shocks.
Moody's expects oil prices to decline during 2026 and 2027 compared to 2023–2025, which will put additional pressure on Iraq's public finances and raise the level of risk related to the government's ability to cover its basic expenditures
The stock market: The investment engine in a dual-challenging environment
The Iraq Stock Exchange is one of the main pillars for promoting investment in Iraq, as it provides a vital platform for Iraqi companies to display their financial data and disclose their activities, enabling local and international investors to make decisions based on transparency and accurate information. The market operates in accordance with sound laws and instructions of the Securities Commission to ensure good governance and regulate trading, making it a pivotal tool for supporting the national economy and keeping pace with global standards in investment management.
Speaking about the role of the market, the CEO of the Iraq Stock Exchange, Ali Amin Jamal, stressed that the market is not limited to being a platform for trading shares, but extends to being “a bridge between the national economy and foreign investors, and enhances Iraq’s ability to benefit from its local resources and develop national industries.”
Jamal added that the market contributes to improving the investment environment by developing electronic trading systems, facilitating the entry of foreign investors, and opening the way for them to invest in listed companies according to clear and transparent standards, which builds great confidence among local and international investors alike.
The international interest in the market reflects Iraq’s ability to absorb huge investments, as the number of foreign depositors in the Iraqi Depository Center reached 6,643 investors, while the number of shares deposited with them exceeded 2 trillion and 506 billion shares. This figure is considered an indicator of the confidence of foreign investors in the market and its ability to provide a safe environment for trading within a framework of transparency and good governance.
For his part, Ahmed Wathiq Al-Ani, a specialist in stock trading affairs, explained that the market provides effective mechanisms to monitor the performance of listed companies and sets instructions for financial disclosure to ensure accurate monitoring of all investment activities, saying: “The commitment to disclosing financial data and activity results reflects the importance of the market as a strategic tool to support companies and encourage investors to enter with confidence and clarity.” He pointed out that the market also contributes to motivating companies to improve their performance and develop their businesses, which strengthens the national economy and increases the market’s attractiveness to investors.
Observers note that the Iraq Stock Exchange has become a key platform for directing investments toward real sectors with competitive advantages, such as national industries, energy, and infrastructure. Jalil al-Lami, an economist, says, "Transparency and good market regulation contribute to supporting the national economy in the long term and allow investors to make informed investment decisions, thus ensuring sustainable growth for the financial sector and listed companies."
Despite the structural challenges and the complex investment environment in Iraq, the stock market remains capable of bolstering investor confidence. It provides a stable and transparent platform, albeit with limited liquidity. Data indicates that the market capitalization of the Iraq Stock Exchange reached 22.33 trillion dinars in 2024, while the volume of shares traded in the first half of 2025 amounted to approximately 321.95 billion dinars. This reflects the market's activity and its capacity to absorb local and foreign investments, albeit on a limited but tangible scale. Al-Lami adds that the market is a vital tool for supporting major projects related to the oil and gas sector and infrastructure. However, it needs to expand its base of listed companies and develop its regulatory, judicial, and political frameworks to become a platform capable of attracting foreign capital on a broader scale.
Ahmed Eid, an expert in economic affairs, says: “The Iraqi stock market has achieved a remarkable improvement in market value and system indicators, but it is still among the high-risk markets economically, and it needs political and security reform, curbing the influence of internal interventions, and expanding the base of listed companies before it can become a fully attractive investment platform.”
In this context, the Iraq Stock Exchange emerges as a key element in the Iraqi investment map, combining legal transparency with the ability to absorb foreign investments, while continuing to work on strengthening laws and procedures and protecting investors from risks resulting from political interference or the economic dominance of certain powers.
Expert: Iraq's financial situation is very difficult and the economy needs a surgical intervention.
Al-Marsoumi said, during his appearance on the “Free Talk” program on Al-Furat satellite channel, that: “Oil prices will remain low throughout the term of US President Donald Trump after the increase in global production, and therefore public budgets must be programmed at the level of sixty dollars and a sovereign fund must be built to repel crises.”
He pointed out that "Iraq did not benefit from the oil resource and adopted the method of 'spoiling the people' and excessive public spending, which created a paralyzed economy that today stands in front of a deep and long-term crisis that needs radical solutions."
Al-Marsoumi explained that "Iraq's budget is the only one in the world that is not precautionary, and the flexibility to raise non-oil revenues is still weak, which makes the country vulnerable to measures that are harmful to the people, and this is what we fear."
He explained that "the Russian-Ukrainian agreement will not create economic stability or an increase in demand for oil, and what will be achieved is the security of oil supplies with a glut in the markets that may reduce the price per barrel to $55."
Al-Marsoumi added that "Iraq used to import about four billion dollars worth of kerosene and gasoline before it decreased to one billion dollars," noting that "the government rushed into declaring self-sufficiency in these derivatives."
He added, "All of Iraq's refineries are old, with the exception of the Karbala refinery, and half of their production is from black oil, which Iraq exports worth $3 billion annually, and this production represents an economic loss."
Al-Marsoumi continued, “The latest agreement has increased Kurdistan’s exports to 188,000 barrels per day, bringing Iraq’s total exports to 3,548,000 barrels per day. This is the largest increase and will be added to the next three years. However, the problem remains in the revenue of $7 billion, which Iraq sold at a price of $64. When $1 billion of it is allocated to licensing rounds, $6 billion remains to cover salaries, welfare, and social services.”
He pointed out that "the current salaries amount to 91 trillion dinars and are likely to rise to 94 trillion dinars after the release of the educators' allocations plus allowances, increases and the calculation of certificates next year, and this will put public finances in a very difficult situation unless things are addressed."
Al-Marsoumi explained that "salaries are currently secured through internal borrowing from Iraqi banks, which has reached the highest rate of public debt, with the risk that banks and the central bank will reach a point where they are unable to lend."
The expert concluded by saying that "the financial situation in Iraq is very difficult and the economy has reached a stage where surgical intervention is needed to put it on the right track."
What is the real cause of the Dinar shortage in Iraq?
Recent discussions about a supposed shortage of dinars—affecting the November salaries in Iraq’s central and southern provinces and the September salaries in the Kurdistan Region—require clarification. The facts become clear when examining the figures from the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Oil.
It is important to distinguish between a cash shortage at the CBI and a dinar shortage at the Ministry of Finance. These are not the same. The data shows that the CBI is not running out of dinars; on the contrary, it has actually reduced its currency issuance.
The real issue lies within the Ministry of Finance, where the gap between revenue and expenditure has widened significantly. As a result, the first and most immediate place where cuts or delays have appeared is the Kurdistan Region.
Iraq is an oil-dependent country, which means its revenues and expenditures are driven primarily by oil prices rather than by government planning or the annual state budget. According to the CBI, oil has accounted for 99 percent of total exports, 85 percent of the national budget, and 42 percent of domestic product growth over the past decade. Although the Bank reports a slightly lower share in terms of revenue, the reality in recent years is that oil income has exceeded 90 percent of total state revenue.
In practice, Iraq’s economic governance is shaped far more by fluctuations in global oil prices than by the annual budget law or any five- or ten-year development plans. For example, over the past nine months, the Ministry of Oil has reported revenues of $62 billion. Based on these figures, the CBI has supplied 81 trillion dinars to the Ministry of Finance’s treasury—an amount notably lower than the 97 trillion dinars the Ministry of Finance spent during the same period, exposing a significant gap between revenue and fiscal needs.
According to data from the CBI, the country is not facing a cash shortage or a lack of dinars. In fact, as part of its monetary policy, the CBI has reduced liquidity in circulation by 4.5 trillion dinars over the past year. For example, in September 2024, the total volume of Iraqi currency issuance declined from 104 trillion dinars to 99 trillion dinars. Most of this decrease came from dinars withdrawn from the currency outside banks rather than from currency held by commercial banks, as shown below.
The cash policy of the CBI is closely tied to oil revenues. As shown in the third graph, oil revenues begin to decline from September 2024 onward. In response, the Bank correspondingly reduces the amount of money it issues, as illustrated in Graph 1. This demonstrates that fluctuations in oil prices directly shape Iraq’s monetary policies, compelling the CBI to adjust the volume of money movement both outside the bank and within the commercial bank.
The current issue is the month-by-month decline in the Ministry of Finance’s revenues—which come primarily from oil—not a shortage of cash, as is often claimed publicly. As illustrated in the graph below, if expenditures in September alone reached 8 billion dollars, then the gap between revenues and expenditures for the first nine months of the year has surpassed 4.4 billion dollars.
Over the past two years, the Ministry of Finance has covered this shortfall through domestic debt. As a result, domestic debt rose from $55 billion at the end of 2023 to $67 billion by the third quarter of 2025, an increase of roughly 21 percent of domestic debt during that period.
However, debt cannot continue indefinitely and cover the deficits because persistent deficits and debts will eventually turn year-end revenues into debt obligations. The gap must be addressed through expenditure reductions, not by continuously increasing debt. Unfortunately, the first area targeted for cuts has been the delay of the Kurdistan Region’s salaries, despite the region fulfilling its commitments by delivering both oil and domestic revenues.
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Note: Revenue and expenditure figures for September 2025 are calculated as the average of the eight preceding months.
According to data from the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Finance, monthly oil revenues amount to $6–7 billion, depending on the price. However, in recent months, the Ministry of Finance’s expenditures have reached $10 billion per month, rather than the usual $8–9 billion. As this gap widens, the financial burden falls on the Ministry of Finance, not the CBI. The Bank can only provide dinars in proportion to actual revenue, not in proportion to government spending. For this reason, as shown in the first graph, Iraq’s cash policy reflects a reduction—rather than an expansion—in dinar issuance.
When expenditures rise while revenues decline, a deficit naturally emerges. In such a situation, external borrowing and debt become impossible, and domestic debt provides little relief. At that point, the problem manifests as a shortage of dinars at the Ministry of Finance, not at the CBI. This is because the spending in question is not investment-related. Banks and financial institutions cannot finance or cover deficits that are directed toward salaries, social welfare payments, bonuses, aid programs, and energy subsidies—items that generate no financial return. These non-investment expenditures have reached 102 trillion dinars in a single year.
The situation of the Kurdistan Region is particularly striking. In this government—compared with previous years, previous cabinets, and even recent periods—the Kurdistan Region has delivered its oil and transferred its non-oil revenues. For the past two months, SOMO has been selling the Region’s oil, totaling 5.8 million barrels last month. The average daily export of Kurdish oil has been 200,000 barrels in November. Together, this exceeds 11 million barrels, generating approximately $700 million—or 900 billion dinars—at the Ceyhan Port price for Iraqi oil.
In addition to this, the Region has transferred 120 billion dinars in non-oil revenues, contributing, on average, 9.4 percent of Iraq’s total non-oil revenue. Yet, despite these contributions, the September salary for the Kurdistan Region has yet to be released, while the federal government has already begun disbursing November salaries for the central and southern provinces.
In short, the narrative about a “lack of cash” is misleading. The real issue is declining revenues and rising expenditures. When national spending is consumed by salaries, social welfare, bonuses, assistance programs, and energy subsidies—even oil sold at $70 or $80 per barrel cannot cover the cost.
Finally, the CBI cannot fill a deficit exceeding 15 trillion dinars accumulated over nine months by the Ministry of Finance. To protect the value of the dinar, the Bank must tighten its monetary policy, not expand it.
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