The Impact of New US Policies on the National Economy
For two months, the world has been witnessing new economic decisions by the US administration and political, security, and economic tensions. The latest concerns the increase in tariffs on US imports from some countries, particularly the European Union, China, and oil-producing and exporting countries.
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Of course, the primary objective of these economic decisions is purely political.
In light of a realistic analysis of international economic, political, and security developments and their expected impact on the Iraqi economy, and with a close eye on the challenges and crises experienced by the national economy, influenced by the economic crises suffered by major economies, the strategic conflicts between the US, China, European countries, and emerging economies such as India, Brazil, and the BRICS countries, the bias of some countries toward the US strategy to lead the world economically, and other countries toward the strategy of China and some emerging countries to establish a new international economic pole to confront US hegemony. One of the most prominent outcomes of this conflict is the global energy and food crisis, which has persisted for more than a decade and continues to plague countries with weak, poor, and rentier economies, preventing them from making a structural and comprehensive transition to emerging economies capable of withstanding and overcoming the effects of global economic conflicts. Since mid-June 2014 and the first quarter of 2020, the Iraqi economy has faced complex and cumulative challenges due to changes in the global economy, including the slowdown in global economic growth due to the US-China conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic, the fight against terrorism, the decline in global oil prices, which reached a decline rate exceeding 70%, and the economic recession. Most countries around the world have been affected by these repercussions, which have had a profound impact on the Iraqi economy. What concerns us is the results of these repercussions and the expected impacts and implications for the economic reality in Iraq in the coming years and until 2030.
In light of the study and analysis, the following can be expected at the level of the global economic system and its implications for Iraq:
First, growth rates in the global economy are expected to decline significantly, affecting the US economy and the economies of the European Union countries, China, and Russia, but at varying rates. Stagflation will prevail in most countries of the world, and this will be reflected in a slowdown in GDP growth by rates ranging between 4-10% in oil-producing and non-oil-producing Arab countries, especially after the countries of the geographic region faced new challenges due to the Zionist aggression on Gaza and the West Bank. The West, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and American threats to Iran have created a new complex situation that will have negative repercussions on the national economy.
Second, the new global economic order we expect to emerge in the coming years will inevitably take shape and will be under the clear economic and financial leadership of the United States, China, and other powers. The Silk Road will be implemented to include the countries through which it was planned to pass, to revive their economies, and it will actually be completed. It is also expected that the path to development will be completed, and Iraq and the countries participating in the project will play a significant role, with positive economic repercussions.
Third, the philosophy of economic management will most likely shift from the capitalist market economy to the social market economy currently adopted as a disciplinary ideology, as in China and some other countries around the world.
These are only early predictions, and the Arab economy will likely be subordinate to the new, larger and more economically powerful pole.
So, what is required of economic decision-makers in Iraq in the face of these developments and changes expected to sweep the world? I see, with a penetrating analytical view of the current economic reality, that we urgently need radical and comprehensive economic change and reform based on the following key pillars:
First: Reshaping the national income resources map by reducing reliance on oil as the primary resource and activating other resources in the coming years to bring them to 30% of the total general budget resources.
Second: Radical and comprehensive change in agricultural, industrial, trade, oil, energy, and water policies by relying on local resources to ensure food and water security, encouraging, protecting, and supporting local production, and developing programs and strategies to protect consumers.
Third: Supporting, developing, and stimulating the private sector, leveraging its capabilities, potential, capital, and investments in building the national economy, and involving it in economic decision-making and economic management.
Fourth: Developing clear strategies for coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, formulating clear financial policies, and re-establishing the foundations for preparing and presenting annual general budgets based on programs, not items. Reducing the budget deficit to the legally specified percentage of GDP, as well as reducing domestic borrowing to a minimum and avoiding any external borrowing.
Fifth: Completing the new methodology adopted by the Central Bank for banking reform and development and digital transformation in all digital fields, with a focus on implementing the Central Bank’s strategy, establishing the financial center, and using artificial intelligence in analyzing, ensuring transparency and accuracy of data for sound economic planning purposes and overcoming the challenges of instability in the financial and monetary systems. This means developing coordinated and balanced plans to overcome the challenges of monetary policy, the challenges of the deficit in non-oil revenue, the deficit in the balance of payments and the trade balance, and the percentage of contribution of productive sectors (the real economy) to the gross domestic product.
Oil calls for an "urgent" meeting to resume export negotiations from Kurdistan and issues a warning.
The Ministry of Oil called on Friday for an urgent meeting with the parties involved in oil exports from Kurdistan, noting that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stressed that the illegal sale of oil constitutes a violation of the rights of the Iraqi people.
The ministry said in a statement received by Mail that “the ministry regrets the publication of a false and misleading statement by the APICOR Association issued on March 28, 2025, which claimed that the ministry expressed its unwillingness to negotiate a solution that fulfills the contracts concluded between APICOR companies and the Kurdistan Regional Government, as the Ministry of Oil is working to ensure the proper implementation of the amendment to the budget law approved on February 2, 2025, so that exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline can begin as soon as possible.” It noted that “the amendment to the budget law stipulates that the federal Ministry of Finance compensate the Kurdistan Regional Government for the cost of producing and transporting crude oil delivered to the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) or to the Ministry of Oil.”
She added, "The budget law also stipulates that the fair estimated costs of production and transportation for each field be calculated individually by an international consultant, and that these costs be used to determine payments from the federal Ministry of Finance to the Kurdistan Regional Government. The amendment to the budget law requires that all production in the Kurdistan Region be immediately handed over to the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) and the federal Ministry of Oil, with a temporary compensation mechanism in place to make payments to the Kurdistan Regional Government while the international consultant carries out his work." She indicated that "the Iraqi government has taken concrete and serious steps to demonstrate its good faith in the negotiations and ensure the resumption of oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline ( ITP ) quickly and responsibly. It has worked consistently and in a manner that guarantees and serves the country's national interest, and has made great efforts to preserve Iraq's resources and implement legal and sustainable solutions."
She explained that "Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani confirmed that selling oil illegally, outside the responsibility of SOMO and its sales mechanisms, constitutes an infringement on the rights of the Iraqi people. He also publicly defended the recent amendments to the general budget law, which were approved through a legitimate democratic mechanism to enhance transparency and governance of oil resource management. The government has been engaged at the highest levels to find a fair solution to this issue." She noted that "the fundamental challenge in these negotiations is that every time progress is made through a specific agreement, negative steps are taken; but not by the Iraqi government, as unrealistic demands outside the legal framework hinder progress towards a final settlement, especially with the emergence of new complications that contradict previous agreements."
The ministry stressed that "such demands do not serve constructive negotiations based on good faith, and that reaching an agreed-upon solution as soon as possible is crucial to halting illegal and unlawful sales and preserving the wealth of the Iraqi people." It added that "the Iraqi government is committed to protecting the interests of all parties in a manner that serves the supreme national interest, including the interests of international oil companies, in accordance with applicable laws and concluded agreements. It is also dedicating its efforts to providing an attractive investment environment that supports economic development and ensures a fair and sustainable solution that serves everyone."
The ministry called for "an urgent meeting with the relevant parties to resume negotiations and dialogue, provided that the negotiations are subject to and in accordance with the amended budget law, and that a clear working mechanism is reached that preserves Iraq's rights and guarantees its obligations to investors." It noted that "the main goal is to resume oil exports via the pipeline immediately, safely, and legally, while ensuring the rule of law and protecting national resources from any illegal exploitation."
An economist reveals the second part of the impact of Trump's tariffs on Iraq.
Economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi revealed, on Friday (April 4, 2025), the second part of the negative impacts of US President Donald Trump's customs tariffs, which are likely to affect Iraq.
Al-Marsoumi confirmed in a Facebook post, followed by Baghdad Today, that "in addition to the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on oil prices and revenues, there is a fear that American banks will impose fees on Iraqi transfers to other countries when paying for imports, by converting dollars into the currencies of those countries."
Al-Marsoumi added, "There are also fees imposed on returns on investing dollar reserves in the US when they are converted into other foreign currencies, since oil revenues are deposited in the US pursuant to international and US decisions."
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced that he would sign an executive order today (Wednesday) to impose reciprocal tariffs.
Trump said in a press statement: "We will begin implementing reciprocal tariffs starting tomorrow, Thursday, and we will impose on all countries the same rates of tariffs that they impose on us."
"Foreign cheats looted our factories, foreign thieves tore apart our beautiful American dream, and today is one of the most important days in American history because it marks our declaration of economic independence," he added.
Trump continued, "We imposed a 2.5% tariff on foreign cars, and the European Union imposes a 10% tariff on us. Starting at midnight tonight, we will impose a 25% tariff on all foreign cars."
"We will impose customs duties of up to 2.8% on many goods, while other countries impose duties of 200 to 400%," he explained.
The US President stated, "These tariff measures will enable us to make America great again, more than ever before," noting that "jobs and factories will return to the United States, and prices will fall for consumers."
He accused what he described as "foreign cheats of looting US factories and foreign thieves of tearing up the beautiful American dream," as he described it.
Trump said, "Today is one of the most important days in American history because it marks our declaration of economic independence."
He announced the imposition of "customs duties of 26% on imports from India, 34% on imports from China, 32% on imports from Taiwan, 30% on imports from South Africa, 10% on imports from Britain, 32% on imports from Indonesia, 10% on imports from Brazil, 49% on imports from Cambodia, 24% on imports from Japan, and 10% on imports from Singapore."
Ministry of Labor: We are awaiting approval of the budget schedules to launch the next batch of social benefits.
The Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs confirmed on Friday that more than 1.3 million people are newly eligible for social assistance, while indicating that 9 billion dinars will be recovered from those who exceeded their social assistance payments during 2025.
Ministry of Labor spokesman Hassan Al-Khadim said in a press statement followed by Al-Mirbad that "the number of new beneficiaries of social assistance has reached more than 1.3 million people. Their cases have been investigated and their data registered in the ministry's electronic system, and they are technically ready." He stressed that "the ministry is awaiting the availability of financial allocations and the approval of budget schedules to launch the next batch of benefits."
He added that "the number of those who exceeded their social assistance salary has reached more than 310,000 people, and all of their salaries have been suspended," noting that "the amounts recovered from those who exceeded their social assistance payments during the current year alone amounted to 9 billion dinars, while the total cumulative refunds amounted to about 320 billion dinars."
Al-Sudani: Iraq is witnessing an unprecedented phase of reconstruction and development.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said on Friday, April 4, 2025, that: "Iraq is witnessing an unprecedented phase of reconstruction and development."
During his meeting today with a group of tribal sheikhs and dignitaries from various communities at the guest house of Hajj Rahim Majisar al-Baydani in Baghdad, Al-Sudani affirmed that "the tribes have always been with the state since its founding, beginning with the 1920 Revolution, and their contributions and sacrifices have continued effectively at various stages and times."
The Prime Minister pointed to "the role of the tribes and their honorable stance in responding to the religious authority's call for sufficient jihad, the call of the nation, as all members of the tribes that bear the Iraqi color lined up in the trench of confrontation against terrorism. This stance came at a time when it was rumored that Iraq had ended as a state, only for the country to return safe and unified."
Al-Sudani stressed that "the supreme religious authority's indication that Iraqis have a cultural and intellectual heritage that they must study, understand, and rely on is a fitting indication, and that our country, with its culture and resources, is capable of facing various challenges." He emphasized that "her talk about Iraq's recovery and being on the right path is a reassuring message to some alarmists who paint a picture of anxiety, panic, and defeatism among society."
He explained, "What we enjoy today is thanks to the sacrifices and honorable stances of the tribes, which we cannot forget. Iraq is strong, capable, healthy, and progressing, as attested to by all regional and international institutions." He indicated that "Iraq has an important pioneering role, and the reconstruction and development it is witnessing, from Basra to Nineveh, is an unprecedented phase."
He continued, "From the outset, the government has worked on priorities based on the needs of the people, far removed from any personal or partisan objectives. We cannot mortgage the country's future solely to oil, especially since Iraq possesses the potential for agriculture, industry, and tourism."
Al-Sudani stated, "Our country is distinguished by its geographical location as a global trade corridor. That's why we launched the Development Road project, and we are working day and night to achieve our commitment. We have the capabilities, resources, and determination to face various challenges."
He pointed out that "work is continuing on a project to transport gas to our power stations, and there is a genuine will to implement reforms, and we have made significant progress in this regard, in a timeframe not exceeding two and a half years of the government's term."
He continued, "The region has witnessed exceptional circumstances, and the government's greatest test was how to handle this crisis, given Iraq's principled position on the Palestinian issue. The continued Zionist aggression against the Palestinians has demonstrated the failure of the international community."
He explained, "We were able to preserve Iraq by acting wisely and responsibly to avoid slipping into the arena of war and conflict. Some emotional and hasty voices wanted Iraq to go to war and conflict."
The Prime Minister stressed that "the interests of Iraq and Iraqis are the government's top priority, and there is no room for favoritism toward any internal or external party." He explained that "the government's approach is to preserve the supreme interests of the state, and we have full hope that the clerics, tribal sheikhs, and elites will promote a discourse of unity, solidarity, and brotherhood among all members of society."
He continued, "There are those who thrive on the rhetoric of sedition, crisis, and conspiracies, and we must pay attention to this matter, especially with the upcoming elections. We are confident that Iraq's future is promising, thanks to its people, capabilities, resources, and sound principles for governing the state."
Revealing the date for the 2025 budget tables to reach Parliament.
Member of Parliament Adnan al-Jaberi revealed, on Friday (April 4, 2025), the date for the arrival of the current year's budget tables to Parliament.
Al-Jaberi said in an interview with Baghdad Today, "The Council of Ministers will discuss the budget tables and send them to Parliament," indicating that "the Parliament will discuss them quickly and will not be delayed until next month to be passed and ratified for implementation."
He added, "There are important service-related items that will be included in the budget tables, and therefore we demand that they be received for the purpose of their rapid passage."
It is noteworthy that the 2025 budget comes within the framework of the three-year budgets approved for the first time in Iraq within the General Budget Law for the years (2023-2024-2025), a step aimed at achieving financial stability and overcoming the crisis of annual delays in approving budgets.
However, the financial tables need annual updates to keep pace with economic developments, including changes in oil prices, the government's obligations towards the governorates and the Kurdistan Region, and the requirements of investment projects.
It appears the 2025 budget will not deviate from this framework, as amendments are currently being made to some of its provisions, delaying the submission of its schedules to Parliament, despite expectations that no radical changes will occur compared to the past two years.
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Iraq eyes US investment in power generation
Iraq and the United States have a “unique opportunity” to deepen their strategic partnership in ways that bolster regional security, economic integration, and long-term stability, a senior Iraqi official said, ahead of a planned visit by a large US business delegation to Baghdad next week.
Farhad Alaaldin, Foreign Affairs Adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, made the remarks in an opinion piece published in The National. He revealed that the US delegation, led by the US-Iraq Business Council, aims to explore new investment opportunities in Iraq’s growing market.
Alaaldin, who recently visited Washington, said he was told by a senior US official that the Trump administration’s foreign policy is centered on making the United States safer, stronger, and more prosperous—an approach he noted aligns with Iraq’s own vision under the “Iraq First” and “shared interests” policy framework advocated by Prime Minister al-Sudani.
He pointed to steady progress in Iraq-US ties, especially in the areas of security, energy, and economic development. With Iraq's economic recovery gaining momentum, particularly in the energy sector, Alaaldin said US companies are well-positioned to play a critical role in shaping Iraq’s transformation.
Among the firms expected to visit Baghdad are major American energy and infrastructure companies such as General Electric, KBR, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, and Honeywell. One of the key outcomes of the visit, he noted, could be the signing of a landmark agreement between GE and Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity to develop 24,000 megawatts of high-efficiency power generation—half of Iraq’s current estimated electricity demand of 48,000 megawatts.
Alaaldin also highlighted regional energy integration efforts, including Iraq’s plan to connect 500 megawatts to the Gulf Cooperation Council’s power grid via Kuwait. Additional agreements with Turkiye, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are expected to contribute another 2,500 megawatts by 2027.
He emphasized the potential for American firms to assist Iraq in addressing its “critical challenge” of gas sector reform—curbing flaring, reducing environmental damage, and helping the country achieve energy self-sufficiency.
Over the past two and a half years, Alaaldin said, Iraq has awarded more contracts to US companies than at any previous stage in the bilateral relationship. Economic cooperation has flourished, ranging from agricultural imports like wheat and rice to large-scale infrastructure development.
The Iraqi government, he added, is currently focused on accelerating major infrastructure projects in transport, water, and telecommunications—sectors where US companies hold strong competitive advantages.
Looking ahead, Alaaldin said Baghdad and Washington see their future defined by shared interests and mutual opportunity. He referenced a November 8 phone call between Prime Minister al-Sudani and President Donald Trump following the latter’s election victory, during which both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to advancing the strategic partnership beyond security, with an emphasis on cooperation in finance, energy, technology, and economic development.
Alaaldin concluded that this next chapter of US-Iraq cooperation holds the promise of mutual prosperity, with shared priorities in economic growth and regional stability forming the foundation of a lasting partnership that contributes to global security.
Economist: Customs tariffs portend a global recession and Iraq will be harmed by the drop in oil prices.
Al-Mashhadani explained to Al-Furat News Agency that "this policy will cause an increase in inflation rates within the United States, which will negatively impact American citizens with a general rise in prices depending on the importance of commodities."
He explained that the indirect impact is the possibility of a global economic recession resulting from a decline in the volume of American, European and Canadian exports to European markets, due to reduced investments and the disruption of commercial activity due to the size of the American market.
Al-Mashhadani warned that "this recession will affect global industry, reducing demand for oil and leading to a decline in its global prices, which will indirectly harm the Iraqi economy, which depends heavily on oil revenues."
Two days ago, US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of countervailing tariffs on most countries around the world, with rates ranging from 10% to 49%, including Iraq.
Trump designated April 2 as "Liberation Day."
With its global decline, Al-Sudani: The country's economy cannot be mortgaged to its dependence on oil.
Al-Sudani congratulated the attendees on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, thanking Rahim Majiser al-Baydani for the invitation. He also praised his social and humanitarian role and contributions, including his provision of aid and support to security forces and displaced persons during the war on ISIS. He emphasized that the tribes have always supported the state since its founding, beginning with the 1920 Revolution, and that their contributions and sacrifices have continued effectively at various stages and times.
The Prime Minister pointed to the role of the tribes and their honorable stance in responding to the religious authority's call for sufficient jihad, the call of the homeland, as all members of the tribes that bear the Iraqi color lined up in the trench of confrontation against terrorism. This stance came at a time when it was rumored that Iraq had ended as a state, only for the country to return safe and unified.
Al-Sudani emphasized that the supreme religious authority's reference to Iraqis having a cultural and intellectual heritage that they must study, understand, and rely on is a fitting gesture, and that our country, with its culture and resources, is capable of facing various challenges. He emphasized that the reference to Iraq's recovery and its being on the right path is a reassuring message to some alarmists who paint a picture of anxiety, panic, and defeatism among society.
The following are the most important points made by the Prime Minister:
What we enjoy today is thanks to the sacrifices and honorable stances of the tribes, which we cannot forget. Iraq is strong, capable, healthy, and progressing, as attested to by all regional and international institutions.
Iraq has an important pioneering role, and the reconstruction and development it is witnessing from Basra to Nineveh is an unprecedented phase.
From the beginning, the government has worked on priorities based on the needs of the people, far from any personal or partisan objectives.
We cannot mortgage the country's future to oil alone, especially since Iraq possesses the potential for agriculture, industry, and tourism.
Our country is distinguished by its geographical location as a global trade corridor; this is why we launched the Development Road project.
We work day and night to achieve our commitments, and we have the capabilities, resources, and determination to face various challenges.
Work is continuing on a project to transport gas to our power stations.
There is a genuine will to achieve reforms, and we have made significant progress in this regard, in a period not exceeding two and a half years of the government’s term.
The region witnessed exceptional circumstances, and the government's greatest test was how to handle this crisis, given Iraq's principled position on the Palestinian issue.
The continued Zionist aggression against the Palestinians has revealed the failure of the international community.
We were able to preserve Iraq by acting wisely and responsibly to avoid slipping into the arena of war and conflict.
Some emotional and hasty voices wanted Iraq to go to war and conflict.
The interests of Iraq and the Iraqis are the government's top priority, and there is no room for favoritism toward any internal or external party.
The government's approach is to preserve the country's supreme interests, and we have full hope that religious leaders, tribal sheikhs, and elites will promote a message of unity, solidarity, and brotherhood among all members of society.
There are those who thrive on the rhetoric of sedition, crisis, and conspiracies, and we must pay attention to this matter, especially with the upcoming elections.
We are confident that Iraq's future is promising, thanks to its people, capabilities, resources, and sound principles of state administration.
A government advisor warns of the effects of the "commercial Trumpism" wave... and this is the fate of the budget schedules.
Saleh pointed out to Al Furat News Agency the "need to intensify direct and continuous oversight and follow-up in two main directions."
He explained that "the first direction is to monitor the cycle of oil assets and re-evaluate them through cooperation with OPEC regarding prices and production quantities, while the other direction is related to maintaining the flow of foreign currency and protecting the country's reserves."
Saleh explained that "focusing on external balances in the economy must be accompanied by more discipline in internal financial and monetary adjustments, especially with regard to public spending. He pointed out that this step has become more urgent to confront the repercussions of what he called "trade Trumpism," which has caused disruptions in energy markets, traded commodities, and global supply chains, so that the global economy will stabilize in the future on more stable foundations."
He stressed that "the budget schedules will remain committed to their basic constants, while taking into account the fluctuations in global oil markets with extreme caution."
With oil prices rapidly declining, a member of the parliamentary finance committee calls for amending the budget schedules.
Kocher explained to Al Furat News Agency, "This matter depends on the price estimated in the budget, indicating that if the price per barrel is at $70, the current rates can be maintained."
He pointed out that "the final decision will be based on financial estimates of oil prices throughout the year, as the price can be maintained if studies indicate it rises above $70. However, if the price falls below this level, Kocher stressed the need for the government to review the financial schedules."
Kocher pointed out that "there is a real deficit in the budgets of previous years, 2023 and 2024, which requires careful handling of oil price fluctuations and their impact on the national economy."
Oil prices fell for the second day in a row, reaching their lowest levels in more than three years, after markets were shocked by the sudden increase in OPEC+ production, in addition to the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, which could lead to a reduction in global demand.
Brent crude, seen as a global benchmark for the oil market, has lost more than 10% in just two days, while US futures are trading at their lowest levels since May 2023, according to Bloomberg.
Brent has fallen to $65 a barrel.
These declines are the result of the tariff storm announced by Trump on Thursday, which threatens global economic growth and consumption.
Just hours after Trump's tariff announcement, the OPEC+ alliance announced a tripling of planned production for May.
Iran's surprise: withdrawing its forces from Yemen and abandoning the Houthis
Iran has ordered the withdrawal of its military personnel from Yemen, abandoning its Houthi allies , as the United States escalates its campaign of airstrikes against the rebel group.
A senior Iranian official told the British newspaper The Telegraph that this move aims to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States if an Iranian soldier is killed.
Iran's main concern
The official added that Iran is also scaling back its strategy of supporting a network of regional proxies in order to focus on direct threats from the United States. The source said that Tehran's primary concern is US President Donald Trump and how to deal with him.
He added, "All meetings are dominated by discussions about him, and we no longer discuss any of the regional groups we previously supported." Since chat messages from senior Trump administration officials were leaked to the media last month, the United States has launched near-daily attacks on the Houthis.
Donald Trump described the strikes as "incredibly successful," destroying important military targets and killing field commanders.
A Pentagon spokesman said more warplanes would be sent to the region, without providing specific details.
However, the US Air Force's 124th Fighter Wing announced late last month that it would send "several" A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft and 300 aircrew to the Middle East.
A Russian military expert in Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, is also believed to be advising the Houthis on how to carry out their attacks while avoiding targeting Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom has bombed Houthi forces in Yemen since intervening in the civil war in 2015, and hosted high-level talks between the United States and Russia on a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.
The Houthis announced that they were attacking US warships in the Red Sea, including the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, which is leading efforts to strike the rebel group.
No ships have been hit so far, but the US Navy said the Houthi fire was the heaviest its sailors had encountered since World War II. The US aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, currently stationed in Asia, is heading to the Middle East to support the Truman.
They won't be able to stay."
An Iranian regime source said: “The view here is that the Houthis will not be able to survive and are living out their last months or even days, so there is no point in keeping them within our network.”
He added: "They were part of a chain that relied on Nasrallah [former Hezbollah Secretary-General] and Assad, and keeping only one part of that chain makes no sense in the future."
Trump has intensified pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table to discuss limiting its nuclear program. Last week, he moved B-2 stealth bombers to the US-UK military base of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands.
The US position on Iran and the Middle East has changed radically since Trump took office.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, said the escalation of US strikes on Yemen represents an attempt by the Trump administration to distinguish itself from its predecessor.
Former US President Joe Biden removed the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations in 2021—a decision that Trump reversed last January.
"Trump is trying to prove that he is more effective in ending and resolving conflicts than the Biden administration," Vakil said. She added that the strikes "are linked to his maximum pressure campaign, while simultaneously sending a message to Iran and the axis of resistance that his administration will take a more aggressive approach to destabilizing regional activities."
Mahmoud Shahra, a former Yemeni diplomat and current fellow at Chatham House, said the United States had pursued a "defensive strategy" against the Houthis during Biden's term.
“Previous miscalculations regarding the Houthis in the US have led Trump to launch heavier strikes against them now, and [the US] has begun targeting key individuals and influencers within their ranks,” he told The Telegraph from Amman, the Jordanian capital.
He explained that the Houthis' weapons are more advanced, making them more powerful than other Iranian-backed non-state groups in the region.
"After the collapse of Hezbollah and the Assad regime, the Houthis are now on the front line, and they have carried out very intensive attacks. They are escalating and taking risks because, according to their own calculations, it prolongs their political life in Yemen," Shahra added.
"They are receiving missiles and drones from Iran and rebranding them with Houthi names because they don't want to show their connection to Iran due to internal propaganda," he said. Israel's success against Hamas and Hezbollah—two key elements of Iran's proxy network—has provided an opportunity to weaken the Islamic regime's influence.
Analysts also believe that Iran's failure to carry out effective missile strikes on Israel last year has undermined its ability to provide credible deterrence against external attacks and has weakened the morale of its allies.
The Israeli military destroyed most of Hamas's infrastructure in Gaza and inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah. Iran also failed to protect Bashar al-Assad, the ousted Syrian president and a key ally, from a surprise rebel offensive that led to his ouster in December.
As Hezbollah's influence declined, the Houthis attempted to take its place in leading the fight against Israel.
"They are not like Hezbollah"
Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel, the Houthis have improved their tactics and missile capabilities, building a strong public image.
The newspaper says, "They control Sana'a, print money, collect taxes, divert aid, smuggle drugs, sell weapons to terrorist groups in Africa, and disrupt international shipping routes in the Red Sea."
They also enjoy a geographical advantage; Yemen's mountainous terrain, similar to Afghanistan, helps them hide missile and drone stores in caves and underground.
"They don't have the same experience as Hezbollah, but they are more aggressive and dangerous at the same time - Abdul-Malik al-Houthi aspires to lead the axis of resistance," Shahra said.
"The streets of Yemen are filled with anger. The Houthis are not paying salaries and are imposing absolute taxes without representation. Therefore, their social base is not strong, and that is why they are relying on the Gaza war," he added
Trump prefers direct negotiations with Iran, describing them as "weak."
US President Donald Trump affirmed on Friday (April 4, 2025) that he prefers direct negotiations with Iran, describing the latter as anxious and weak.
Trump said, according to media reports: "I prefer to conduct (direct negotiations) with Iran about its nuclear program."
He added, "Iran is worried and feels weak, and I don't want it to be that way."
Najaf Friday Imam: US bases are in the crosshairs of our youth
Al-Qabanji said in his Friday sermon, followed by Baghdad Today: "We advise Trump not to rush into war or threaten war. We are prepared to defend our religion and are certain that the gates of heaven have been opened for us."
He added, "The American bases in Iraq are within range of Iranian artillery, and indeed, they are within reach of the young people of Iraq, and no one can stop them."
Last Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani affirmed his country's rejection of US threats against Iran.
This came during a phone call he received from the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Massoud Pezeshkian, on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, according to a statement issued by his media office.
Urgent | US Senator Releases Document Containing Provisions of What He Calls the "Iraq Liberation Act"!
The bill requires the US administration to develop a clear strategy within 180 days to confront the Iranian presence in Iraq. This strategy includes dismantling the armed militias supported by Tehran and halting any security assistance to Iraq unless these groups' influence within state institutions is eliminated. It also calls for designating certain armed factions as foreign terrorist organizations, such as the Badr Corps, the Hezbollah movement, al-Nujaba, and the Imam Ali Brigades. This would impose strict restrictions on their activities and the movements of their leaders, according to the draft, which was published on the X platform by Joe Wilson.
The law does not stop there, but rather imposes direct sanctions on Iraqi political and financial figures accused of facilitating Iranian influence. These include former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Badr Corps leader Hadi al-Amiri, a move aimed at tightening the noose on Iran's local supporters inside Iraq, according to the draft law.
In addition, the project imposes restrictions on the Iraqi economy, as it seeks to ban the import of liquefied natural gas from Iran, in an attempt to sever the financial link between Baghdad and Tehran and reduce Iraq's dependence on Iranian energy.
This legislation comes at a time when Iraq is undergoing complex political and security transformations, as Washington seeks to reshape the relationship between Baghdad and Tehran amid escalating regional tensions and shifts in the balance of power within Iraq itself.
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