Saturday, February 28, 2026

Dinar Weakens If Hormuz Closes? Iraq Faces Severe Oil & Revenue Shock

Iraq is suffocating... serious financial repercussions from closing the Strait of Hormuz

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On Saturday, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned of serious economic and financial repercussions that Iraq may face due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, explaining that the Iraqi economy depends almost entirely on exporting oil through its southern ports overlooking the Gulf .

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Al-Marsoumi told Shafaq News Agency in a special statement that “about 94% of Iraq’s oil exports pass through the southern sea ports, which means that any closure of the strait will lead to the cessation of most exports, and consequently a decrease in oil revenues from about $7 billion per month to less than $1 billion .”

He explained that the available alternatives are "very limited, as Iraq is currently unable to export more than 210,000 barrels per day via the Turkish Ceyhan pipeline, in addition to limited quantities that can be transported by tankers to Jordan, which are quantities that are not sufficient to cover financial obligations and public sector salaries ."

He added that “stopping exports will force Iraq to reduce oil production to levels that may reach about one million barrels per day, which will lead to the closure of a number of oil wells, which may cause technical damage to reservoir pressure and negatively affect future production capacity, noting that restoring previous production levels may take a long time even after the strait is reopened .”

He pointed out that "the repercussions of the shutdown will not be limited to the oil sector only, but will extend to the electricity sector as a result of the decrease in associated gas production related to oil production, which means a decrease in the quantities of dry gas used in operating power plants, which may lead to an increase in hours of power outages ."

Al-Marsoumi stressed that Iraq “will be among the countries most affected by any long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, given its dependence on oil,” calling for “the need to expedite the search for export alternatives and develop contingency plans to reduce potential risks to the national economy .”

Earlier on Saturday, the European organization "Aspidis" reported that the Revolutionary Guard had closed the Strait of Hormuz, a claim later confirmed by the Iranian Navy .

Four trading sources reported on Saturday that some major oil and trading companies had suspended shipments of crude oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz amid continued US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran's response .

Reuters quoted a senior executive at a trading company as saying: "Our ships will remain in place for several days ."

For its part, the Iranian Fars News Agency reported that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stopped .

Israel announced on Saturday morning that it had carried out what it described as a "preemptive" attack on Iran, while a US official confirmed the participation of US air forces in joint strikes aimed at what he described as dismantling the Iranian security apparatus, expecting the operations to be large-scale .

Iranian media reported explosions in central Tehran and thick smoke rising near the government complex in the Pasteur area, with reports of missiles falling in the vicinity of vital areas, partial communications outages, and the closure of Iranian airspace until further notice, without an official announcement of the extent of the damage .



A significant jump in dollar exchange rates in Baghdad and Erbil

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The exchange rate of the US dollar witnessed a significant increase today, Saturday, in the markets of the capital, Baghdad, and the city of Erbil, amid rapid fluctuations in the local market.

The dollar exchange rate rose in the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges in Baghdad to reach 156,000 dinars per 100 dollars, after it had recorded 153,800 dinars per 100 dollars last Thursday.

As for the currency exchange shops in the local markets of Baghdad, the selling prices also rose to 156,500 dinars per 100 dollars, while the buying price reached 155,500 dinars per 100 dollars.

In Erbil, exchange rates also rose, with the selling price reaching 155,500 dinars per 100 dollars, while the buying price reached 154,500 dinars per 100 dollars.

This rise comes amid rapid changes in the dollar exchange rate, which changes within minutes, reflecting a state of sharp fluctuation in the market, coinciding with security and regional developments affecting the economic landscape.



With the start of the Israeli-Iranian war on Saturday (February 28, 2026), the Iraqi stock exchanges witnessed a rise in the exchange rate 
of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar.
 
In the capital, Baghdad, the exchange rate of the US dollar reached 1585 Iraqi dinars, in Basra the exchange rate of the dollar reached 1580 dinars, while in Najaf Governorate it reached 1583 Iraqi dinars, and in Karbala Governorate it reached 1582 dinars.
 
In the Kurdistan Region, the exchange rate of the dollar also rose, reaching 1577 dinars in Erbil Governorate, 1580 dinars in Sulaymaniyah, and 1577 dinars in Duhok.
 
In Nineveh, the exchange rate of the US dollar reached 1578 dinars, while in Kirkuk it reached 1580 dinars.
 
The United States and Israel began launching strikes on Iran on Saturday, with US President Donald Trump asserting that their goal was to destroy Tehran's military capabilities and overthrow the regime.
 
Iran responded with missile strikes on Israel, as well as on a number of Arab countries where there are American bases, such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Jordan.



The Islamic Resistance in Iraq enters the battle and carries out 16 operations.


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The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced on Saturday (February 28, 2026) that it had carried out 16 military operations targeting “enemy bases in Iraq and the region,” using dozens of drones.

Israeli military spokesman Efi Deverin said on Saturday that the Israeli army would respond to any country that targeted it and that its eyes were open on all fronts, while giving figures on the outcome of the attack on Iran, saying, “We launched 200 aircraft in the largest air operation in Israel’s history and hit more than 500 targets.”

The Iranian Red Crescent announced on Saturday evening that 201 people were killed and 747 others were injured in bombings that targeted 24 Iranian provinces, according to a preliminary count.

The resistance stated in a statement, a copy of which was received by Network 964, “The mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq carried out sixteen operations today, Saturday, February 28, 2026, using dozens of drones against enemy bases in Iraq and the region. We will provide you with the details later.”




Iraq issues statement regarding the Israeli-American war against Iran

 

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Iraq issued a statement today, Saturday (February 28, 2026), regarding the Israeli-American war against Iran.

The spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Sabah al-Nu’man, said in a statement received by “Baghdad Today” that “Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani, chaired a meeting today, Saturday, of military and security leaders at the headquarters of the Joint Operations Command, in the presence of the Minister of Interior, the head of the Popular Mobilization Forces, the head of the Intelligence Service, the head of the National Security Service, the Chief of Staff of the Army, the head of the Counter-Terrorism Service, and the Deputy Commander of Joint Operations.”

According to the statement, Al-Sudani was briefed on "the security situation, following the attacks on Iraqi sites, as well as the developments and escalation that accompanied the attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran."

The meeting affirmed "Iraq's position, government and people, rejecting the logic of war and aggression in all its forms," warning of "the consequences of the blatant aggression that targeted a number of Iraqi sites, resulting in the martyrdom of a number of people and various injuries."

The meeting, according to the statement, condemned "the unjustified aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and everything that affects its people, sovereignty and constitutional institutions."

The meeting reiterated its warning against any infringement on Iraq’s sovereignty, airspace, and territory, or using them as a corridor or launching point for attacks on Iran. It also rejected the notion that Iraq’s territory or territorial waters should be used as a reason to drag Iraq into the conflict, and affirmed that the government will resort to all means permitted by law and international norms to protect its security, stability, and sovereignty.

The meeting affirmed "Iraq's position on the necessity of an immediate cessation of military operations and resorting to dialogue and peaceful means provided by international law to resolve international problems," noting that "the entire region will be vulnerable to slipping into unforeseen consequences, and that major powers, foremost among them the United States of America, must act responsibly and contribute effectively to finding solutions away from the military option."

He stressed that “the firm, principled and constitutional position that Iraq adheres to, in rejecting non-peaceful means in dealing with conflicts and crises, is a position chosen by our people in all its segments, categories and spectrums, and agreed upon by all national and political forces.”

A message from Washington to Baghdad emphasizes that Iraq should not be drawn into a war against Iran.

 

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A high-ranking source confirmed on Saturday (February 28, 2026) that Baghdad had received an official message from the United States, stressing the need to keep Iraq neutral from the repercussions of the ongoing war with Iran, and to ensure that it is not drawn into any military confrontation.

The source told Baghdad Today that “the American message confirmed Washington’s keenness to avoid dragging Iraq into the fighting, in light of the current escalation with Iran,” indicating that “the American side made it clear that there is no intention to carry out any military action inside Iraqi territory.”

This message comes at a time when the region is witnessing escalating tension, amid fears of a widening confrontation between Iran on one side and America and Israel on the other, and its repercussions on the security and stability of Iraq.


Trump: I have a "very good idea" about Iran's next leadership

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US President Donald Trump told ABC News that he has a "very good idea" of who will lead Iran in the next phase.

Trump's statement comes after his announcement of the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, amid escalating military and political developments between Washington and Tehran.

Trump announced earlier on Saturday the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, describing him as "one of the most evil people in history," and claiming that his death represented "justice" for the people of Iran, for Americans, and for the victims of attacks attributed to Tehran.

Trump's remarks came after Israeli reports spoke of Khamenei's death, while Iranian media denied the news, amid an unprecedented escalation in military tension between the two sides.



The rule of the Supreme Leader has returned to Najaf and Al-Khoei... Khamenei's representative is preparing a surprise!

The first condolences came from Larijani and Sadr.

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The rule of the Supreme Leader has returned to Najaf and Al-Khoei... Khamenei's representative is preparing a surprise!

 

The vacancy in Khamenei’s position was not a surprise to the Iranian regime and its institutions, and therefore many reports indicated early on that Ali Larijani was ready.

Iran entered a 40-day mourning period, and Iraq joined in the mourning for 3 days with the announcement of the first condolences from Iraq, which was the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr from Najaf. As for the first Iranian statement on the passing of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, Ali Khamenei, it was also from one of the members of what is known in Iran as the “Najaf Trio,” namely Ali Larijani, the son of the jurist Hashem Amoli Larijani, a student of the leader of the Najaf seminary, Abu al-Qasim al-Khoei, and one of the most talked-about names to succeed the Supreme Leader, who speaks Arabic well and knows the alleys of Iraq, and he quickly revealed his next plan, which is titled “Major Iranian Surprises.”

Just hours before Khamenei’s assassination, local and foreign reports emerged about Khamenei’s plan to fill the void in case of any emergency, by “promoting Larijani” and handing over various affairs to him, which practically put him at the head of state affairs even before the assassination.

The head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, initiated the Iranian positions and issued the first statement, without mentioning the Iranian army or even the Revolutionary Guard. Larijani said, “The departure of Khamenei is the beginning of a major Iranian resistance against the oppressors that will surprise you.” Larijani linked the timing of Khamenei’s departure to the anniversary of the death of Imam Ali bin Abi Talib, who was also assassinated at the end of Ramadan, and to whom a famous cry is attributed when he received the sword blow to his head during the dawn prayer, which is, “I have won, by the Lord of the Kaaba.”

Larijani concluded by describing Khamenei’s departure as an ascension to God, and quoted the famous Quranic verse from Surah Maryam about the Prophet Yahya: “Peace be upon him the day he was born, and the day he dies, and the day he is raised alive.”

Larijani, who was born in the city of Najaf, speaks fluent Arabic. He is the middle son of the great jurist Ayatollah Hashem Amoli , a student of the supreme Shiite authority Abu al-Qasim al-Khoei. His connection to the religious seminary in Najaf is well-known. His older brother, Mohammad Javad Larijani, is a well-known philosopher and mathematician, a graduate of the United States, who was a great defender in international forums of the idea of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist. His last position was the head of the research center affiliated with the Iranian parliament. As for Ali Larijani’s other brother, Sadegh Larijani, he is a jurist known for his brilliance in law, as he remained for many years as the head of the Supreme Judicial Council of Iran. He authored many books criticizing Western philosophy and used modern European logic in engaging in deep debates with Iranian critics who objected to the discourse of the Islamic Revolution.

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority and then US President Donald Trump announced Khamenei’s passing before midnight between Saturday and Sunday (February 28 to March 1, 2026) Baghdad time. Iranian sources continued to deny Khamenei’s death until around 4:30 a.m. on Sunday, before Iranian state television announced Khamenei’s passing.

Several Iraqi cities, including Baghdad and Basra, witnessed demonstrations with people wearing shrouds, declaring their readiness to defend Iran, after several factions announced the opening of recruitment campaigns. Meanwhile, Iraqi resistance factions claimed responsibility for bombing Erbil and carrying out 16 operations on the day of Khamenei’s assassination.

Even after the assassination of Khamenei and the news of the assassination of the senior leadership team in Iran, the Iranian bombing of Tel Aviv, Israeli cities and Gulf cities, including civilian airports in Bahrain and Kuwait, continued. Tehran did not issue an explanation regarding the bombing of civilian facilities, but Iranian sources indicated that the bombing of civilian facilities may have been done by mistake.


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Attempts to storm the US embassy in Baghdad and violent clashes in front of the Green Zone

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The Iraqi capital, Baghdad, witnessed a dangerous escalation on the ground today, Sunday, March 1, 2026, following the influx of crowds of demonstrators towards the fortified Green Zone, where violent clashes broke out with the security forces tasked with protecting the diplomatic and sovereign headquarters.

Field reports indicate that hundreds of protesters attempted to storm the US embassy compound in Baghdad, expressing their anger over the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. Security forces are working to prevent the demonstrators from breaching the concrete barriers and reaching the embassy grounds, amidst an unprecedented atmosphere of security tension.

These disturbances in Baghdad coincide with a series of rapidly unfolding events that have swept through the region in recent hours, most notably:

Erbil Airport Targeted: The "Saraya Awliya al-Dam" group claimed responsibility for a suicide drone attack targeting US military bases at Erbil International Airport, in retaliation for what it described as attacks on sovereignty.
Leadership Vacuum in Iran: Tehran officially announced the martyrdom of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of military commanders and advisors in the "Epic Wrath" attack, and initiated procedures for the transfer of power under Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution.

Popular and Diplomatic Reactions: The "banner of revenge" was raised above the dome of the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, and demonstrations took place in Nasiriyah, while US President Donald Trump stated that reaching a diplomatic solution was now "easier."
A state of high alert prevails among the Iraqi armed forces and diplomatic missions, awaiting developments in the coming hours amidst calls for de-escalation and others for further escalation on the ground.



A three-member council will run things after Khamenei... These are its members.

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The Iranian news agency IRNA announced on Sunday that a three-member council consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council will temporarily assume leadership duties in Iran.

Three Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, will oversee the transition in Iran following the death of the Supreme Leader, according to Mohammad Mokhbar, an advisor to Ali Khamenei, as reported by state television on Sunday.

An informant said the trio would include Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and a lawyer from the Guardian Council.

The agency confirmed the deaths of Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Defense Council, and Major General Mohammad Pakpour, commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, in the US-Israeli attack on Tehran on Saturday. 

Israel had previously announced that Shamkhani and Pakpour were killed in the same strikes on Saturday morning.

Iranian state media announced that Major General Ahmad Vahidi, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, had taken over command of the Guard's forces, following the assassination of Major General Mohammad Pakpour.

In a related context, CBS News quoted an intelligence source and a military source as saying that about 40 Iranian officials were killed in these attacks.

It was unclear whether they were gathered at one location, or targeted at several different locations.




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